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Saturday, 28 January 2012

BREAKINGVIEWS

U.S. private sector emerges from government shadow

27 January 2012

Headline annualized U.S. GDP growth of 2.8 pct in the fourth quarter looks more anemic when inventory growth is netted out. But private sector output expanded at a more robust 4.5 pct. The government retreated in 2011 as a whole, but private enterprise is regaining strength.

The Ford logo is seen on a Ford F-150 truck parked in Burbank, California

Ford's profit fender-bender not as bad as it looks

27 January 2012

Falling a fifth short of Wall Street’s Q4 estimates dinged the automaker’s shares. But Ford’s balance sheet and product line-up are strong. And there are more cost cuts coming. Even allowing for the challenges its overseas operations face, Ford’s stock should be shiny again soon.

How ECB could help solve Greek deadlock - for now

27 January 2012

The European Central Bank is under pressure to join private creditors in taking a loss on its Greek bonds. But if the ECB merely agreed not to make a profit, Athens could save up to 15 bln euros. That would clear the way for Greece’s next bailout – and buy politicians some time.

Francois Hollande delivers a speech during a campaign rally in Nancy

Hollande's plan points France in wrong direction

27 January 2012

The socialist presidential candidate does endorse worthy fiscal targets, but his plan to meet them is long on tax hikes and short on spending cuts. His policies would not tackle France’s biggest economic problem, a lack of competitiveness. They might make it worse.

Uninvited guest, Mr 99 Percent, crashes Davos

26 January 2012

The rich and the powerful at the World Economic Forum are haunted by the shadow of the unemployed and disenfranchised. The specter is in the panels, hallway conversations and political speeches. What’s less clear is whether the gathered plutocrats can deal with income inequality.

A statue of Eastman Kodak founder George Eastman

Year's biggest M&A deal shines light on spinoffs

27 January 2012

Eastman Chemical, once part of just-bankrupt Kodak, is spending $4.7 bln on Solutia, a rival that went bust in 2003 after splitting from Monsanto. With spinoffs so popular these days, the deal is a timely reminder for investors that not all carve-up progeny are created equal.

Chevron still safest oil bet despite profit miss

27 January 2012

Knocking $6 bln off Chevron’s market value looks like an over-reaction. The hit makes the second-largest U.S. oil company even cheaper compared to rivals. The recent weakness in refining will pass, and the firm has strong finances and the sector’s lowest exposure to cheap gas.

Japan's trade deficit is not merely unlucky

27 January 2012

Japan’s 2011 catalogue of disasters drove up fuel imports and put trade in deficit for the first time in 31 years. But the deficit still matters. With Europe weakening and the yen strong, Japan can’t afford to rely on exports. The debt-ridden economy must do more to help itself.

Private equity energy herd has ample room to graze

26 January 2012

Successes like KKR’s five-bagger on East Resources have sped up the sheep-like migration to the sector. That will make such returns hard to replicate. And it’s not obvious how the buyout playbook applies. But hot shale and distressed gas should keep energy pastures green.

BREAKINGVIEWS TV ON INSIDER

Calculator: Who picks up the euro tab?

How would the cost of rescuing the euro zone be split between it and the rest of the world?

Calculator: What price earnings?

If U.S. corporates increase earnings by an average of 5 percent a year for 5 years, and the average forward p/e ratio shifts from 12 to the long-term average of 15, annualised returns will hit 9.9 percent.

A supporter of activist Anna Hazare with a painted face stands next to an Indian national flag

E-book: Unravelling India

The latest e-book from Breakingviews takes on the three top questions facing the world’s largest democracy.

Features

Rob Cox, US Editor, Breakingviews

A Van Winkle return to Davos and to real problems

27 January 2012

When this columnist last attended the World Economic Forum in 2000, everything was wine and roses. The biggest M&A deals ever were popping, the Nasdaq had another 20 pct to climb and everything looked rosy. Jump 12 years forward and it’s a different, more difficult world.

Peter Thal Larsen, Assistant Editor (London)

De-globalisation of finance looks here to stay

27 January 2012

The crisis has reversed a decades-old trend of increasingly international finance. Shrinking banks are shedding foreign businesses, while regulators and governments are encouraging a more national identity. The splintering so far isn’t hugely harmful, but protectionism is a risk.

Column

Edward Hadas, Economics Editor

Ethical economy: Stop talking about capitalism

25 January 2012

Names matter and capitalism has become a bad one for the modern economy. It’s too narrow to describe the bureaucratic, competitive, regulated, innovative, collaborative and financial system we live in. Better to talk about the social market model.