Kenya’s election dispute makes economy tougher to fix 31 Dec 2007 The rancour over the reelection of Kibaki won't change much economically. Kenya differs from successful African countries like Ghana, Mali and Botswana in two ways: faster population growth and greater corruption. Solving those problems is crucial, but may now be harder.
Buffett’s late-year deals could be just the beginning 31 Dec 2007 The Sage of Omaha s move to start a bond insurer is just the latest example of Berkshire Hathaway s strength amid disarray elsewhere in the financial sector. This and other deals announced by Buffett over the holidays could be just a taste of things to come in 2008.
Iran energy deals signal return to normalcy 28 Dec 2007 With the US now unlikely to pursue military action, Iran has been busy sealing deals that were previously on hold. The country is softening terms to attract foreign investment, which could encourage Japanese and European oil companies to pump billions into the country.
Vietnam boom may be running out of steam 28 Dec 2007 Tepid response to the overpriced Vietcombank deal suggests investor enthusiasm for Vietnamese stocks is waning. Corruption and poor property rights may sidetrack Vietnam s economic growth. However, low wages, high literacy and China s example should make any pause short.
Bhutto killing heightens risk of Pakistan chaos 27 Dec 2007 The former PM s assassination brings Pakistan closer to either authoritarian rule or bedlam, neither good for the country's economy. A chaotic, impoverished, nucleararmed Pakistan of 165m people could be seriously disruptive to the world, both politically and economically.
Can Europe live up to its green promises? 27 Dec 2007 In 2008, the EU must decide how to make good on its ambitious promise to slash greenhouse gases by 20% and to generate 20% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020. Get ready for a big fight: if Brussels is to get its way, it will have to tread on some big business toes.
Cable groups won’t ignore football again 27 Dec 2007 The NFL Network may pull off a stunning comeback this season. By televising one of the most important games in its history, it gains an important bargaining chip in negotiations with cable companies that balked at carrying its games.
Buffett fails to call bottom in financials 26 Dec 2007 Despite rumours he would rescue Countrywide, Bear Stearns or others, the Berkshire boss is shelling out $4.5bn for the Pritzker's old style industrial conglomerate Marmon. He may be growing risk averse in his old age but he's probably right in thinking there's worse to come.
Thai election should mean faster growth 26 Dec 2007 After December 23 s election, supporters of deposed leader Thaksin should be able to form a government. That would bring back fiscal policies of free market economics and broadening growth to rural areas. When democracy produces a result this sensible, the King must revere it.
Radiohead’s digital dabble was just a decoy 24 Dec 2007 In a blaze of publicity, the rockers let fans name the price for downloading their new album. Three months on, the songs are being released on oldstyle CD. Next, a world tour and single. Radiohead's generosity looks like a publicity stunt.
Philips pays breathtaking $5.1bn for Respironics 21 Dec 2007 The Dutch conglomerate has made its biggest acquisition ever. The concept is fine, but the price is a hefty four times sales. To add value Philips will have to meet some fairly stiff synergy targets.
UBS tries to overcome opacity – with opacity 21 Dec 2007 Banks have lost billions on opaque investments that are hard to value. To shore up capital, the banks have called on opaque investors whose intentions aren t always clear. UBS won t even name its mystery buyer. Swiss shareholders are right to complain.
Nintendo could pay for Wii buzz 21 Dec 2007 The Japanese group s game console is still sold out in most US stores 13 months after its debut. Whether manufactured or not, the shortage keeps the Wii buzz and game console s price up. The cost is lower margins.
Marsh & McLennan finally examines a split 21 Dec 2007 Boss Michael Cherkasky is out as well. He cleaned the stables well after two major scandals. But the group s awkward structure was his downfall. Combining insurance brokerage, consulting and a detective agency is neither simple to manage nor sensible.
Web 2.0’s 2008 challenge: privacy 21 Dec 2007 Many internet companies aspire to be the next Google by figuring out and influencing how groups of people act. The catch these businesses depend on users surrendering their privacy. The limits have already been tested.
Thain prepares Merrill for a kitchen-sinking 21 Dec 2007 Temasek s mooted $5bn capital injection indicates that the Thundering Herd s new boss will take another $8bn or more of writedowns. He needs the Singaporeans to replenish capital without resorting to fireselling assets like its Bloomberg stake.
Bear trapped in the financial woods 20 Dec 2007 On the one hand, Bear Stearns needs to expand and invest in people. On the other, its first ever quarterly loss has undermined the firm s finances and reputation. Septuagenarian boss Jimmy Cayne, himself under scrutiny, faces long odds in engineering a rebound for the firm.
Another good year for Africa in 2008? 20 Dec 2007 Africa was a surprise investment hotspot in 2007, thanks to high commodity prices and global liquidity. It could do well again in 2008, the global credit crunch allowing. Chinese investment is the main hope; continuing bad government the main fear.
Netsuite auction shows folly of traditional IPO process 20 Dec 2007 Underwritten initial public offerings often leave cash on the table. By auctioning its shares, hot tech group Netsuite captured the benefits for itself. Auctions have problems, but they are a superior way to price floats.
Barclays turns on Bear as crunch turns nasty 20 Dec 2007 Banks don t usually engage in public slanging matches for good reason. Whatever the merits of Barclays claims of fraud against Bear, the UK bank doesn t look smart given it doubled its commitment to Bear s hedge funds in March and was hedging itself with the equity.
Potanin’s Norilsk defeat won’t end oligarch war 20 Dec 2007 Vladimir Potanin hasn t found the $16bn he needed to buy out Mikhail Prokhorov, his former friend and partner, at Norilsk Nickel. The stake is likely to go to Rusal s Deripaska. But the bitter fight between the two billionaires is far from over.
Russian oligarchs head for gold mine showdown 20 Dec 2007 With gold prices at record levels, Russian billionaires are scrambling to snap up the country's gold assets. The showdown is likely to come in March, with the auction of Siberia s giant Sukhoi field. With everyone from Abramovich to Deripaska involved, this one could be messy.
Sky facing heavy price for ITV adventure 20 Dec 2007 BSkyB should cut its 17.9% stake in ITV to a maximum 7.5%, according to the Competition Commission. That would trigger a £200m loss for the UK broadcaster. Sky may consider this a price worth paying for blocking Virgin Media's bid for ITV. Besides, it is not giving up yet.
Emerging markets will suffer in 2008 20 Dec 2007 Emerging market stocks have just had five very good years on the trot. But they won t get a sixth. Tighter credit conditions, rising inflation and overvalued stocks will see to that. 2008 s winner is likely to be somewhere unfashionable but liquid like South Korea.
Rose heads for tough year at M&S 20 Dec 2007 The man who saved Marks & Spencer starts 2008 with a turnaround and a knighthood under his belt. But with M&S out of the pits, the real challenge for Sir Stuart will be to keep the UK retailer's racy growth story going.
UK binge yields to festive fear 20 Dec 2007 As Christmas approaches, the UK consumer, like house prices, is stalling. Deficits government and trade are soaring. A long binge of excess debt and spending is coming to a messy end.
Vivendi’s surprise rights issue points to more deal-making 20 Dec 2007 The littleleveraged French telecomandmedia group could have taken on more debt to finance its E4.4bn bid for telecom upstart Neuf Cegetel. It may want to keep its powder dry if an opportunity arises to buy out other minority shareholders.
How good a deal are SWFs getting for bailing out Wall St? 20 Dec 2007 That critically depends on whether the likes of Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are going to cut their dividends. If one assumes they won't, the Arabs and Asians are only getting soso deals. But if the banks slash their payouts, the sovereign wealth funds have scored bargains.
Protectionism looks the winner from 2008 election 20 Dec 2007 If recession hits in 2008, candidates will seek someone to blame. The likely scapegoats are globalisation and immigration. The US could end up with a president more committed to higher trade barriers and stricter immigration controls than any since World War II.
City scrooges should dip into their wallets 20 Dec 2007 UK philanthropy falls far short of US levels and has failed to keep up with the growth of the City, according to a new study. There may be good excuses for this. But City institutions should take a lead on encouraging a culture of giving if only for business reasons.