Breakingviews | Corporate defaults

Considered view

03 Jan 2008 15:52

Model behaviour

By Simon Nixon

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OK, people have been predicting gloom for years. But that may be because their models failed to take account of looser covenants. Citi has a new model that predicts US high yield defaults hitting 5.5% by 2009 – even without a recession. Europe won't be that different.

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