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Text size [+][-]  Friday March 12 2010GLOBAL EDITION

Considered view
12 Oct 2009 16:08

Strong dollar fiction victims

Context News

German exports fell by 1.8% in August from July while imports increased by 1.1%, according to the national German statistics office. On an annual basis, exports fell by 20% from August 2008 and imports by 19.3%. In January to August exports to the non-euro area were down by 26.4%.

GDP in the sixteen-country eurozone fell by 0.2% in the second quarter from the first quarter and by 4.8% from a year earlier.

The IMF forecasts that the German, French and Spanish economies will contract by 5.3%. 2.4% and 3.8% respectively in 2009. In 2010 the IMF expects Germany to grow by 0.3%, France to grow by 0.9% and Spain to suffer a further contraction of 0.7%.

For the eurozone as a whole the IMF predicted a 4.2% contraction in 2009 and 0.3% growth in 2010. “Demand from Asia will not be strong enough to substitute for demand from the United States,” commented Marek Belka, Director of the IMF’s European Department.

The eurozone is suffering a much bigger contraction than the US. One reason is the weak dollar. The cheap currency helps US exporters and makes imported goods pricier. It’s the opposite for the expensive euro. The eurozone’s suffering looks set to persist.

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