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Text size [+][-]  Monday September 6 2010GLOBAL EDITION

Considered view
10 Dec 2009 21:30

Hold the euphoria

Context News

Brazil’s GDP expanded by 1.3 percent in the third quarter of 2009, compared to economists’ expectations of 2 percent growth, while second-quarter GDP growth was revised down from 1.9 percent to 1.1 percent. GDP remains 1.2 percent below its level in the third quarter of 2008.

Brazil’s annual inflation accelerated in November for the first time since February to 4.22 percent. The Economist panel of forecasters expects zero net GDP growth in 2009 and 3.8 percent GDP growth in 2010, with a current account deficit of 0.8 percent of GDP in 2009 and a budget deficit of 3.2 percent of GDP.

The Brazilian real was trading around 1.60 to the $1 in August 2008. It then fell to a low of 2.43 in December. It has rebounded to 1.76. The Bovespa share index is up 83 percent in 2009 and within 10 percent of its all-time high in May 2008. The Banco Central do Brasil SELIC rate was left unchanged at 8.75 percent at the meeting on Dec. 10.

Brazil’s trade surplus in November 2009 fell to $615 million, with exports down 5.7 percent from October and imports down 0.9 percent. From January through November, exports declined 23.8 percent while imports fell 27.6 percent from the previous year.

Brazil: 


martin.hutchinson@breakingviews.com

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