Journalists
Martin Hutchinson covers emerging markets and economic policy from Washington, drawing on 25 years of experience as an international merchant banker. He ran derivatives platforms for two European banks, before serving as director of a Spanish venture capital company, advisor to the Korean conglomerate Sunkyong and chairman of a US modular building company. In Zagreb he established the Croatian debt capital markets and set up the corporate finance operations of Privredna Banka Zagreb. Since 2000 he has been a financial journalist, and is the author of "Great Conservatives, " a book on British political history. He has a first class Honours degree in Mathematics from Trinity College, Cambridge and a Harvard MBA.
Kabulbank's crisis seems to stem from dodgy loans on Dubai mansions. But even domestically, long-term real estate lending isn't desirable. Contrary to some international advice, banks in poor countries like Afghanistan need to protect savings and make only safe, short-term loans.
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, is skipping a general obligation bond payment. The default is small but the significance potentially much larger. The struggles of municipalities tend to lag the economic cycle and a sluggish recovery could very well produce a surge of them.
The BOJ's latest moves failed to weaken the currency. In any case, the trade-weighted yen is weaker than its real 1990-2010 average and Japanese exports are still rising. Export lobbies may have the government's ear, but intervention could make Japan's domestic predicament worse.
President Jacob Zuma wants South Africa to leap from the emerging CIVETS grouping into the club representing the biggest fast-growing economies. That would bring a deluge of foreign investment. But Zuma has plenty to prove -- including that he can avoid the BRICs’ worst failings.
If a U.S. railroad can issue 100-year bonds, why not the U.S. Treasury? Longer maturities than the current 30-year maximum would reduce refinancing needs and appeal to institutions. But investors might well demand more return for the risks than Treasury would be willing to pay.
The uptick to 500,000 in initial jobless claims spooked the market. It could be a blip, since newly redundant census workers will claim benefits. But if market pessimists are right, the sense that unprecedented policy moves have failed to generate jobs would be inescapable.
Spooked by slowing growth, the central bank has loosened money a bit by opting not to let maturing mortgage bonds run off. But weaker productivity has now joined rising global prices to add to US inflationary pressure. The Fed has put itself in position to lag any economic shift.
The private sector employment gains in August, together with positive revisions for previous months, should dispel fears of an economic double-dip for now. With just one more jobs report before November's elections, the latest data also offer a glimmer of hope for Democrats.
The annualized Q2 growth rate of 2.0 pct north of the border didn’t much beat the U.S. pace, but final demand growth at 3.2 pct was much stronger. That’s an indication that Canada’s economy, though weighed down partly by its neighbor’s weakness, is recovering more robustly.
The Fed boss said on Friday he would act against deflation - but he ignored the federal deficit. Even Japan has not had significant long-term deflation, while the U.S. deficit is at record levels. Bernanke’s faulty diagnosis and treatment are unlikely to produce faster growth.
The plunge in existing home sales in July owes much to the expiry of a home buyers' tax credit. But real house prices are still as high as in 2000, so their tentative recovery is vulnerable to another significant leg down. That in turn could bring a second recessionary downturn.
The Andean country has enjoyed standout economic growth in 2010, but this may not last. In next April’s election, it will choose between resources-led growth like Chile, state expansion like Argentina or full state control like Venezuela. Peruvians’ votes will really matter.
Illinois’ budget mess is worse than the Golden State’s; its government is in arrears and borrowing to fund pensions. It does have a low income tax rate and restrained local governments. But its weak economy and erratic debt management could tip it first into crisis mode.
President Juan Manuel Santos’ free market policies should further fuel growth. And his detentes with leftist guerrillas and neighbors may improve security too. But Venezuela and Ecuador remain socialist, and their economic struggles may yet rekindle regional conflict.