Ian Campbell taught English at the Université de Poitiers before studying economics. He was Chief Economist, Emerging Markets at ABN AMRO Bank, Head of Latin American Research at BancBoston Securities and Regional Director, Latin America at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Since becoming a journalist in 2000 he has written for The Washington Post, The Times, The Independent, The Economist, The Globe and Mail, The Chicago Tribune, The New Statesman and other publications. From 2000 to 2003 he was Economics Correspondent for the UPI press agency. He has recently returned to the UK, where he is writing a book on rural Mexico.
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This year or early next for a UK rate rise? That has been the market’s question. The data demands much more caution. The Bank of England expects inflation to be on target until 2017, and its growth forecasts look optimistic as Europe struggles. Expect flat rates for a long time.
Geopolitics has brought volatility back to global markets. The most serious risk is the impact of Russian sanctions and counter-sanctions on European growth. Markets’ recent soft patch may be more than a seasonal lull.
The Bank of England is beginning to wonder why wages aren’t rising. Just delay? Or something structural? It’s both. Self-employment explains almost all the gain in jobs. Austerity cuts and recession have bitten hard. Pay, inflation and interest rates will take time to recover.
- UK’s strong GDP has a soft centre
- Markets sleepwalking into European slowdown
- Deflation is good in UK but risky in euro zone
- U.S. inflation poses threat to 2007-style market calm
- UK's hawkish shift is dangerous
- Iraq insurgency adds to stagflation risks
- Blunt instrument is needed for global house bubble