Ian Campbell taught English at the Université de Poitiers before studying economics. He was Chief Economist, Emerging Markets at ABN AMRO Bank, Head of Latin American Research at BancBoston Securities and Regional Director, Latin America at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Since becoming a journalist in 2000 he has written for The Washington Post, The Times, The Independent, The Economist, The Globe and Mail, The Chicago Tribune, The New Statesman and other publications. From 2000 to 2003 he was Economics Correspondent for the UPI press agency. He has recently returned to the UK, where he is writing a book on rural Mexico.
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Not long ago an overheating housing market was seen by many as the big UK danger. Now mortgage approvals are dropping and house inflation is easing – even though mortgages are getting cheaper. Tighter home-loan regulation is a factor. Workers’ low earnings are the main restraint.
The Bank of England could hardly be less keen to raise rates. But the forecast by Governor Mark Carney that it will take three years for inflation to rise to the 2 percent target is based on implausibly fast growth. The timeframe for tighter money will keep being pushed back.
The asset was first to swoon when investors awoke to the end of U.S. money-printing. Coin sales, a recovering Indian rupee and declining supply offer some hope. But even after a near-40 pct fall, the price hasn’t adjusted to the end of speculative fervour. Sub-$1,000/oz looms.
- End of U.S. QE is actually good for world economy
- European "lowflation" stays on its dire path
- IMF goes from wrong to over-optimistic on UK
- Cameron takes deficit amnesia to a new level
- Welfare cuts betray UK’s lingering weakness
- UK torn between populism and fiscal reality
- Double-digit oil promises lubrication not seizure