Ian Campbell taught English at the Université de Poitiers before studying economics. He was Chief Economist, Emerging Markets at ABN AMRO Bank, Head of Latin American Research at BancBoston Securities and Regional Director, Latin America at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Since becoming a journalist in 2000 he has written for The Washington Post, The Times, The Independent, The Economist, The Globe and Mail, The Chicago Tribune, The New Statesman and other publications. From 2000 to 2003 he was Economics Correspondent for the UPI press agency. He has recently returned to the UK, where he is writing a book on rural Mexico.
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The yellow metal is up as tumbling oil prices and a rising dollar destabilise many financial markets. Euro zone fears and Russian gold buying have also helped. But U.S. rate rises will create major shifts in the financial world. Gold is set for a bad 2015.
George Osborne’s budget is no pre-election pleaser, despite populist moves on property, bank and corporate tax. Deficit reduction is further behind schedule in part due to prior tax cuts. The fiscal outlook remains poor. Necessity forced low-cost gestures and further austerity.
The huge fall in the oil price will be good for global growth, helping consumers and importing countries. That might seem to justify high equity valuations. But the growth boost will take time and speculative excesses are evident in stocks.
- Remember the UK housing bubble?
- Ultra-dovish Carney still looks too bullish
- Gold bulls have precious little to cling to
- End of U.S. QE is actually good for world economy
- European "lowflation" stays on its dire path
- IMF goes from wrong to over-optimistic on UK
- Cameron takes deficit amnesia to a new level