Challenge to Theresa May clarifies Brexit endgames 12 Dec 2018 If the Prime Minister is ousted by her party, the resulting turmoil could take Britain closer to a chaotic departure from the European Union. Even if she survives, her Brexit deal will still struggle to get through parliament. Either outcome makes a second referendum more likely.
“Pere Noel” Macron won’t cheer marchers or markets 11 Dec 2018 France’s president pivoted from Teutonic austerity to Matteo Salvini-ish populism in response to violent protests over inequality. He pledged state cash to help the underpaid and pensioners. That may push up French borrowing costs without pleasing those in yellow vests.
The Exchange: Joe Kaeser 10 Dec 2018 It’s hard to imagine a company embodying as many of the challenges and opportunities of 21st century capitalism as Siemens. The German conglomerate’s CEO swings by Times Square to discuss trade, breakups, power, automation, labor, Saudi Arabia and lots in between with Rob Cox.
Breakdown: Brexit maze has four flawed ways out 10 Dec 2018 The Prime Minister’s deal to leave the European Union is on life support after she delayed a crucial vote. Britain faces a baffling array of political options. Despite the confusion, the country essentially has four choices. Breakingviews offers a guide through the labyrinth.
Swiss spat offers Britain glimpse of Brexit future 7 Dec 2018 While UK politicians argue among themselves, the European Union is threatening to restrict share-trading with the Alpine nation over stalled treaty talks. It’s a stark reminder of the limits of sovereignty - and of the EU’s readiness to use regulation as a political weapon.
Alexis Tsipras mistimes Greek pre-election gamble 7 Dec 2018 After nearly a decade of bailout-related austerity, the prime minister is promising giveaways ahead of a 2019 vote. There’s a case for spending more. But Italian jitters and the end of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying make this a bad moment to test investors’ patience.
EU gives Mediobanca Christmas gift on Generali 5 Dec 2018 Finance ministers extended until 2024 a generous capital treatment for banks’ stakes in insurers. It allows Mediobanca, which has 13 pct of Generali, to add 100 bps to its capital ratio and delay a sale. CEO Alberto Nagel has a larger buffer to resist market jitters, or do deals.
Euro zone reform leaves crisis fault lines intact 4 Dec 2018 The single currency’s finance ministers agreed to make sovereign bailouts and debt restructuring smoother, and share the cost of winding down banks. Yet support for troubled countries and lenders remains limited. The region is still unprepared to cope with future economic shocks.
Swiss have no easy way out of EU deadlock 3 Dec 2018 The government delayed by a week a decision on an EU treaty that would simplify a maze of bilateral deals. Accepting Brussels’ demands to further open up labour markets would risk defeat in a referendum. But failure to agree means putting barriers around the Swiss stock market.
EU sends mixed signals to scale-hungry corporates 27 Nov 2018 Commissioner Margrethe Vestager may wave through a Dutch mobile merger but not the Siemens-Alstom rail deal. One decision hints at flexibility in the EU’s antitrust thinking. Still, politicians hoping to build regional champions to counter the U.S. and China will be disappointed.
Italian budget climbdown would be just a start 26 Nov 2018 The anti-austerity government may trim its 2019 budget deficit target to defuse a clash with the European Commission. That would ease financial market tensions which risked undermining any benefits of extra spending. The stimulus is still being spent in the wrong places, though.
Brexit vote plan is more twerp than TARP 23 Nov 2018 Market panic helped the U.S. government push its 2008 bank bailout through Congress. Theresa May might hope for a similar outcome if the UK parliament rejects her deal to leave the EU. The flawed analogy misunderstands markets, and forgets that Britain’s crisis is self-inflicted.
Viewsroom: What’s next for Brexit? 21 Nov 2018 Cabinet resignations, an angry coalition partner and a skittish currency greeted UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s draft agreement to quit the EU. Breakingviews columnists examine whether the current mess leads to Brexit with an EU deal, without a deal, or even to a new referendum.
Euro budget is a withered carrot for fiscal rebels 19 Nov 2018 France and Germany want to set up a pot of money to fund investment in the euro zone. The fund will only be available to those who comply with EU fiscal rules. The idea is a nice one but there may be too little money and too much complexity for the incentive to be effective.
Watch UK bonds to see when there’s a real crisis 16 Nov 2018 The pound suffers every time concern flares that Britain may crash out of the European Union. But gilts strengthen since bleaker economic prospects make higher interest rates less likely. The clearest sign investors have had enough would be when both weaken at the same time.
Rates pain compounds UK banks’ Brexit misery 16 Nov 2018 Shares in British lenders fell after government resignations increased the chances of Britain failing to agree a deal with the EU. Investors are pushing back hopes for higher interest rates. That leaves banks stuck with low margins on top of political and economic uncertainty.
Europe can play a waiting game with Italian rebels 16 Nov 2018 Italy’s anti-austerity budget flouts Brussels’ fiscal rules. Declaring Rome in breach and imposing penalties would fuel euro scepticism ahead of key European elections. Better to tone down the rhetoric, and let a slowing economy and hostile markets weaken the executive’s hand.
Viewsroom: Europe fights U.S. Big Tech 15 Nov 2018 Digital titans like Alphabet and Apple may rule the roost, but EU rules on data privacy are helping startups flourish on the other side of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Facebook’s inability to police fake content spreads to Africa. Plus: Mumbai’s ride-share drivers go on strike.
UK government turmoil hardens Brexit dilemma 15 Nov 2018 Two cabinet ministers have quit, weakening Prime Minister Theresa May and reducing the already-slim chances that parliament will support her deal to leave the European Union. That makes the alternatives of a painful and chaotic Brexit, or a second referendum, more likely.
EU tech’s unholy alliance takes shape in Lisbon 12 Nov 2018 Europe is tackling the deficiencies that made it a digital also-ran, like lack of talent and funding. Yet vast data hoards and market share still give U.S. giants like Google a massive advantage. Policymakers at last week’s Web Summit in Portugal seemed eager to close the gap.