Bush paid history’s economic dividends forward 1 Dec 2018 During the 41st U.S. president's one term, Soviet communism fell and Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was foiled. The "kinder, gentler" Bush was the last of a Washington breed that sought compromise. He put country over party. His successors reaped, and then squandered, the benefits.
Saudi Arabia finds OPEC solution that helps itself 22 Jun 2018 At the oil producer group’s Vienna meeting Riyadh needed to hike output without sparking an Iranian walkout. It succeeded, and in a way that could gee Saudi oil revenue. The catch is that President Donald Trump may soon twig that the deal may not help to curb high oil prices.
The Exchange: Marcus Ruiz Evans 8 Dec 2017 The president of Yes California leads a campaign arguing that the Golden State should become an independent country – an idea increasingly referred to as Calexit. He explains why secession would be good for the state’s economy and how he’ll get the rest of the nation to buy in.
Hurricane Harvey darkens forecast for OPEC cuts 1 Sep 2017 The oil cartel’s lower output was finally reviving prices before a storm knocked out around a third of U.S. refineries and dented demand. A glut of crude building up in tankers could force producers to rein in output even longer if they want to tilt the market in their favour.
Iraq bond market return no cakewalk for investors 4 Aug 2017 Buyers piled into the war-torn country’s $1 bln bond issue, its first in a decade. Iraq faces many dangers but has the support of the U.S. government and oil reserves. Besides, with emerging market debt squeezed by low rates, fund managers have little choice but to take a risk.
Only Russia can make OPEC great again 23 May 2017 Moscow is giving the cartel more pricing clout. A mooted deal to extend output cuts and drain global crude stockpiles can only succeed with the continued support of the world’s biggest crude producer. With U.S. drillers recovering, it may be time to make the alliance permanent.
OPEC’s oil price conundrum requires new bargain 9 May 2017 The cartel’s decision to restrict output has failed to revive prices. Extending the current deal – as Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has hinted – is not guaranteed to drain stockpiles. Making deeper cuts at the expense of market share would do the trick, but could be hard to agree.
OPEC’s solidarity points to longer production cuts 14 Feb 2017 The cartel has taken two steps forward and one step back. Compliance with output cuts is narrowing the gap between supply and demand, but it is also encouraging U.S. producers to drill more wells. Sustained higher prices may require even more restraint to keep the market balanced.
Bets against Iraq’s OPEC cuts are premature 10 Jan 2017 Traders may have jumped the gun betting Baghdad won’t stick to an output deal. The cartel's second-largest producer has little to gain reneging on the pact and could struggle to maintain record shipments without investment. Higher prices help its cause more than extra barrels.
Iran needs friends beyond Boeing 12 Dec 2016 The U.S. aircraft-maker's order for $16.6 bln of planes may force U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to choose between jobs and his tough stance on the Islamic Republic. Iran is in a weak position. It can help itself a bit, starting by rebuilding bridges with near neighbours.
OPEC resolve is strong enough to turbo-charge oil 30 Nov 2016 The cartel’s deal to cut crude output for the first time since 2008 ends its two-year-old policy of putting market share before higher prices. This may be self-defeating if shale production rebounds. But OPEC unity is convincing enough for oil to extend and sustain gains.
Oil prices are too gloomy on chance of OPEC deal 26 Oct 2016 Crude prices have wilted after Iraq joined Nigeria, Iran and Libya in seeking exemptions from production cuts. But this need not be the death knell of a deal to reduce output. Even a small reduction to production would balance a market that is now only narrowly oversupplied.
Libya is the fly in OPEC’s ointment 31 Aug 2016 Whether the cartel can push up oil prices depends on Tripoli. Libya’s production is small but unpredictable. Include the war-torn country in any output cap, and other OPEC members may end up forced to produce less. Ignore it, and efforts to rein in production could be wasted.
Kurdistan oil bust is study in underestimated risk 14 Jul 2016 Creditors will take control of Gulf Keystone after falling prices, excessive debt, unreliable payments and unrest left a company once worth nearly 4 bln pounds essentially bankrupt. Huge oil majors can afford such risks, but most investors should avoid wannabes that take them.
Iraq report makes awkward reading for BP and Shell 7 Jul 2016 Oil majors were big winners from the 2003 invasion. The UK inquiry into the war shows how UK producers were at the heart of plans to rebuild and carve up Iraq’s oil fields. They won’t relish the public airing of their involvement any more than ex-Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Damning Iraq report shows there’s hope for Britain 6 Jul 2016 A state inquiry has slated British lawmakers for the 2003 Iraq war. This, and a post-referendum political vacuum, may spur investors to wonder why they fund the UK’s big current account deficit. The answer - for now - is institutional resilience and a capacity for self-criticism.
OPEC’s biggest quota threat is Iraq, not Iran 10 Jun 2016 At some point, the cartel may try to cut production to prop up oil prices. To date, investors have focused on the risk of a post-sanctions Iran upending this by hiking output. Instead, the big risk is that Iraq, which has opened its spigots since 2012, refuses to toe the line.
Genel shock shows price not oil’s only risk 29 Feb 2016 The Kurdistan oil explorer downgraded one of its largest fields in Northern Iraq, simply because its wells will run dry faster than thought. While today’s oil price matters, so does having enough reserves to still be pumping when prices eventually recover.
Even a weaker Islamic State will drag on economy 23 Dec 2014 Cheap oil may now be the biggest worry for Middle Eastern economies, but the struggle against the radical group also has the potential to undermine growth. Even if IS has peaked, its ideology remains a problem, especially for Iraq and Turkey. Iran could end up gaining ground.
Iraq troubles are unlikely to bring new oil crisis 24 Jun 2014 The continued violence looks like a harbinger of a sharp cutback from one of the world’s major oil producers. But the bulk of Iraq’s production is still secure. The Middle East is clearly becoming less stable, but it would take a cascade of problems to create a big price shock.