HSBC’s yawning discount is too harsh 21 Feb 2024 The $155 bln lender took a big impairment on its stake in China’s BoCom bank. That aside, shareholder returns have been consistently strong and look set to remain so. The successful push into Asia beyond Hong Kong suggests boss Noel Quinn is riding geopolitical waves well, too.
Barclays only partly fixes investment bank problem 20 Feb 2024 The $30 bln UK lender will keep the size of its trading and advisory arm stable by 2026, while growing other businesses. That’s logical. But Barclays still needs that growth to materialise, and even then shareholders may see the newly downsized investment bank as too big.
JD is logical winner of odd UK retail bidding war 19 Feb 2024 The $37 bln Chinese e-tailer is mulling an offer for Britain’s Currys, also the subject of interest from Elliott Advisors. A feeding frenzy for a sub-$1 bln UK asset with an unproven turnaround story sounds weird. But JD.com’s need to expand overseas is a strong motivation.
NatWest share sale starts life on shaky ground 16 Feb 2024 The $24 bln lender’s pre-tax profit rose 20% in 2023 due to higher borrowing costs. But the boom will be brief as the prospect of falling rates and a weak economy will hit returns. That’s a tough sell for the government as it readies to offer its holding to the British public.
Banks win hollow victory over would-be disrupters 16 Feb 2024 Supermarket giant Tesco’s ditched effort to build a UK retail bank follows similar abortive attempts by telecom groups and fintech startups. Regulation and rising technology costs are partly to blame. But banks’ persistent poor returns are the most effective barrier to entry.
UK growth alarm is best focused on the long term 15 Feb 2024 The shrinkage in Britain’s economy at the end of 2023 belies an improving climate. With falling inflation, low unemployment and a stirring housing market, rates may soon fall. Yet pre-election fiscal giveaways may impede a fix to the real issue: ongoing poor productivity growth.
Arm’s weirdly high valuation has legs 13 Feb 2024 The $150 bln chip designer’s shares have doubled since last week’s positive outlook. The good news supports a higher valuation, but Arm’s current level is excessive. Yet with a small free float and majority owner SoftBank unlikely to sell any time soon, it may stay in the clouds.
UK $13 bln cardboard saga has durable M&A endgame 9 Feb 2024 Three years after its last approach, $7.4 bln Mondi wants to merge with $5.4 bln DS Smith. Amid slowing consumer demand, there’s more strategic and financial logic in uniting the UK-listed packagers. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a squabble over how they’re scrunched together.
The obesity drug craze is entering its next phase 8 Feb 2024 Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk can’t keep up with demand for their weight loss medications. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the hype among celebrities, the different approaches to prescribing them in the US and Europe, and how they can reshape the world.
Publicis lead over WPP looks hard to overturn 8 Feb 2024 The $25 bln French ad giant is growing faster than its $11 bln UK rival. Publicis’s relative lack of exposure to the tech sector is one key advantage, but it’s also run more efficiently and has made better strategic choices. WPP’s plan to stop the rot looks unlikely to do so.
Unilever is test case for ‘edible stranded assets’ 2 Feb 2024 The $123 bln consumer goods group relies on brands that look vulnerable to sugar taxes and changing eating habits. Like oil majors facing lower demand, Unilever and others like Nestlé may have to write down the value of these assets. Unfortunately, the problem defies easy fixes.
Iliad rebuff raises the bar for Vodafone in Italy 31 Jan 2024 The UK telco rejected its French rival’s 10 bln euro offer to merge operations in the tough southern European market, a fresh snub to Xavier Niel. CEO Margherita Della Valle needs to quickly plan another deal. Tie-ups with Telecom Italia, Swisscom or Wind all have complications.
Santander progress yet to show up where it counts 31 Jan 2024 The $65 bln lender has already hit its 2025 profitability targets, yet still trades below tangible book value. Investors may fear risks like European rate cuts, or they might not buy Santander’s strategy. Until they award a higher valuation, boss Ana Botín’s job is incomplete.
Economic slack gives Bailey cover to cut rates 31 Jan 2024 The market wants the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs soon. Governor Andrew Bailey is set to keep them steady on Thursday because inflation remains high. Yet sub-par economic performance in the next few years could pave the way for easier monetary policy from May.
Diageo investors seem braced for a beerier future 30 Jan 2024 The $78 bln drinks giant’s sales of spirits fell in the second half of 2023, but Guinness held up. If investors thought Diageo could hit its sales targets, it would be worth more. One takeaway is that they think more of its future revenue could come from less highly valued beer.
Financial fallout is hardwired into new nuclear 26 Jan 2024 France’s EDF wants help with the costs of its Hinkley Point C plant, which now exceed 30 bln pounds. Britain can say no, but needs the power. Globally nuclear capacity is supposed to treble by 2050, but future investor, state and customer spats on overruns look inevitable.
Red Sea oil tension may revive Russia-Saudi spat 22 Jan 2024 Exchanges of fire between Yemen’s Houthis and the US military have hiked costs for Moscow to ship oil via the Suez Canal to China and India. One upshot could be Russia loses market share to Saudi Arabia. That may reopen the sort of tensions that led to the duo’s 2020 price war.
BP’s business-as-usual vibe can only go so far 17 Jan 2024 The UK oil major has appointed Murray Auchincloss to the top job. While the ex-CFO seems to want to stick with BP’s current strategy, that might not help its valuation discount. Ways that conceivably could – like spinning off his transition assets – are worth his consideration.
BoE can win inflation race but lag on rate cuts 17 Jan 2024 UK price growth could drop in the spring due to lower energy bills, enabling the Bank of England to hit its 2% target before the US and Europe. But wage and services inflation will stop Governor Andrew Bailey from reducing borrowing costs. So will a likely UK fiscal splurge.
General Atlantic buys infrastructure for its IPO 16 Jan 2024 The US buyout firm is taking control of UK specialist asset manager Actis. The deal gives it $12.5 bln of assets in hot markets and geographies. Boss Bill Ford is trying to build a more diversified firm ahead of a possible float. His pitch to investors just got stronger.