Orsted revival requires more than belt-tightening 7 Feb 2024 The $23 bln Danish group cut its 2030 power capacity target and cancelled dividends after facing $4 bln of US impairments. For investors, it’s better than an equity raise. But an Orsted share-price recovery hinges on regaining their trust – and expected rate cuts materialising.
Woodside torches Santos’ quick activist fix 7 Feb 2024 The oil and gas driller ended talks with its smaller rival about a $52 bln merger Down Under. A deal always looked hard. But it could have got investors off Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher’s back. Now he’ll have to try the slower route of capital returns, cost cuts and asset sales.
Financial fallout is hardwired into new nuclear 26 Jan 2024 France’s EDF wants help with the costs of its Hinkley Point C plant, which now exceed 30 bln pounds. Britain can say no, but needs the power. Globally nuclear capacity is supposed to treble by 2050, but future investor, state and customer spats on overruns look inevitable.
Abu Dhabi’s Europe M&A hedges an opaque future 26 Jan 2024 The UAE’s key oil group is readying $40 bln of European petrochemicals deals. Some Western rivals are doubling down on the black stuff. ADNOC’s plan – buying up the value chain of an area where crude demand may persist – is a partial hedge against cratered oil usage in 2050.
Red Sea oil tension may revive Russia-Saudi spat 22 Jan 2024 Exchanges of fire between Yemen’s Houthis and the US military have hiked costs for Moscow to ship oil via the Suez Canal to China and India. One upshot could be Russia loses market share to Saudi Arabia. That may reopen the sort of tensions that led to the duo’s 2020 price war.
Capital Calls: Microsoft’s Russian hacker 22 Jan 2024 Concise views on global finance: The $3 trln tech firm disclosed that a nation-state hack accessed leaders’ email, saying it showed the need for potentially “disruptive” measures. It’s a worrying acknowledgement of the still-vague costs of geopolitical tensions for tech giants.
Global risk pile-up penetrates Davos bubble 18 Jan 2024 Nearly 3,000 movers and shakers have converged on the Swiss resort amid crises in the Red Sea, Gaza and Ukraine. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how Davos-goers unable to ignore these perils are nervously anticipating another Trump presidency.
Carbon markets have a long shot at redemption 18 Jan 2024 The US hopes to raise over $200 bln using carbon credits to help emerging markets cut emissions. The idea of enabling firms to offset pollution with cuts elsewhere has long been flawed. Washington’s wager is that a lack of green cash for developing states is a bigger evil.
Time for EU to assist its solar panel industry 17 Jan 2024 Meyer Burger’s stock tanked 35% after it threatened to shut Europe’s biggest photovoltaic plant unless it gets German incentives. Stuck between US subsidies and cheap Chinese products, continental players are weak. Turning support for fossil fuels into green aid would help.
EU’s energy security drive may have gone too far 11 Jan 2024 The bloc’s pivot away from Russian pipeline gas has worked. But Europe’s fast-rising capacity to import the fossil fuel in liquid form will surpass its total gas needs by 2030. LNG infrastructure’s public and private backers have a stark choice: scale back, or risk writedowns.
China’s auto exports can hold the fast lane 10 Jan 2024 The country has displaced Japan as the world's largest shipper of cars abroad, sending more than 5 mln overseas last year, per an industry group. Companies best known for gas guzzlers are among the winners. But EV makers like BYD are gaining share and will drive the trend on.
Shell will be tempted to join US M&A party 5 Jan 2024 With rivals Exxon Mobil and Chevron doing chunky deals, the $214 bln European oil major may wish to follow suit. A pitch for $30 bln Permian player Endeavor is affordable and arguably logical. But it would test how far CEO Wael Sawan can realistically pivot back to fossil fuels.
Aussie tycoon will blaze new green activist trail 2 Jan 2024 Atlassian co-CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes has already used some of his billions to tackle climate change, like battling the country’s top carbon emitter. Quitting the software firm would make him more effective. Other wealthy moguls may then join him in the activist trenches.
Capital Calls: Eni’s green sale 22 Dec 2023 Concise views on global finance: The Italian energy major’s 10 bln euro valuation for its retail-and-renewables arm Plenitude is more likely to be recreated or exceeded if it avoids a rushed listing.
Capital Calls: Angola and OPEC 21 Dec 2023 Concise views on global finance: The African state’s decision to quit the oil producer group isn’t a huge deal in the short term, but will raise fears of more meaningful exits.
Green investors will learn the art of stockpicking 21 Dec 2023 Wind and solar stocks had a torrid 2023, as stars like Orsted crashed. But renewables investment is strong, input cost inflation is abating and rates may have peaked. Investors able to pick developers in the right sector, or suppliers in the right regions, may find bargains.
BP and Equinor will find common ground 20 Dec 2023 The British oil major is undervalued against peers and is in a leadership vacuum. That makes it vulnerable to a takeover as US mega-mergers shake up the sector. Daring to tie up with Norwegian ally Equinor offers a powerful hedge and a springboard.
Biofuels comeback will give West a rare energy win 20 Dec 2023 Propellants from plant waste and animal fats have lost out amid an e-mobility push. Yet the difficulty of using electricity for planes and ships, and the rise of non-edible crops as feedstock, will offset food supply fears. Western groups like BP, Total and Eni will benefit.
Santa puts coal stocks in stockings for last time 19 Dec 2023 Producers of the dirty fuel, like Peabody and Arch Resources, have generated excellent returns over the past two years, a trend that may continue in the near term. But government policies are rapidly eroding demand. Fewer investors will want the shares in Christmases future.
COP28 deal just about keeps net zero on the road 13 Dec 2023 Nations at the climate shindig agreed to start transitioning away from fossil fuels. The wording could have been tougher and clearer, and the world still faces harmful warming. But the Dubai meeting could have yielded a damaging standstill, rather than a baby step forward.