Bank clients will learn the value of data in 2018 28 Dec 2017 New EU regulations will force lenders to share account information with competitors - subject to savers’ consent. Up to two-fifths of banks’ revenue could be at stake. New entrants will need to overcome privacy concerns. Even so, customers will discover what their data is worth.
China will pull private capital into state orbit 27 Dec 2017 Beijing's mixed-ownership policy push will see private firms fed shares in government-owned enterprises like oil giant CNPC. Further blurring lines between public interest and profit won't do much for efficiency, but buyers will get insurance against political risk.
Mega-miners will find good things in small packages 27 Dec 2017 They still depend on moving tonnes cheaply. But with green energy changing demand, big producers must increasingly think like small ones. For companies like Rio Tinto and BHP that will require a change of mindset – and in some cases, leadership.
Credit markets will enjoy one last hurrah 26 Dec 2017 Healthy global growth will make chief executives and buyout firms more willing to take risks and keep a lid on defaults. There’s also a case for locking in cheap borrowing costs before central banks become less generous. But the next wave of blowups is building.
Even rich geeks can’t escape the Grim Reaper 22 Dec 2017 Silicon Valley’s best and brightest have earned fortunes by solving complex problems. Now many are turning brains and wealth toward conquering death. Applying an engineering mindset to health issues may benefit humanity, but it’s more likely to burn capital than discover the fountain of youth.
Taxes done, Paul Ryan has pick of Midwest boards 22 Dec 2017 The U.S. House speaker just delivered Corporate America its biggest gift ever by cutting rates to 21 pct. As he considers his next move, Ryan's wonkiness wins out over his schmoozer credentials, making Wall or K Streets a bad fit. Breakingviews imagines a recruiter's pitch.
Catalonia poll delivers no Christmas joy 22 Dec 2017 Parties seeking to break with Spain won a majority of seats in local elections. Their support didn’t strengthen, but it didn’t really weaken either. PM Mariano Rajoy now faces the challenge of appeasing the region with greater autonomy. The political uncertainty will linger.
U.S. debut restores faith in Chinese micro-lender 22 Dec 2017 LexinFintech slashed the size of its IPO and priced the deal at the low end, amid a crackdown on online lending. That was enough to get the flotation away and spark a healthy first-day rise of nearly 20 pct. The $1.7 bln firm now has a chance to grow into a higher valuation.
A Western money manager will turn Chinese in 2018 22 Dec 2017 While U.S. and European outfits battle competition and regulation, wealth is ballooning in China, and many firms are looking for growth. It’s the perfect recipe for a big cross-border deal, perhaps involving a name such as Franklin Templeton or Deutsche Bank's DWS unit.
Viewsroom: Saudi Aramco’s path may lead to China 21 Dec 2017 That the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will join Riyadh in hosting the world’s largest IPO is one of Breakingviews’ 2018 predictions. We also explain the method to our fortune-telling and lay out why China will win the 5G standards race and why Wall Street will learn to love bitcoin.
Capital glut will overwhelm rising disaster losses 21 Dec 2017 Hurricanes and wildfires doubled estimated catastrophe-related insurance claims to $136 bln in 2017. Reinsurers and cat-bond holders have had a bad year. A hotter planet suggests more pain. But a surfeit of investors chasing uncorrelated returns will keep the cash flooding in.
Sun will be setting on Silicon Valley imperialism 21 Dec 2017 Expect tech firms to keep going public with lopsided share-class structures like Snap's that treat public investors as serfs. Rising pressure from fund managers and index creators, however, will bear fruit in 2018, mainly by imposing temporal limits to super-voting tendencies.
Tax cuts crystallize haves, wants, can’ts, won’ts 21 Dec 2017 AT&T, Comcast, Boeing and Wells Fargo are among companies sharing the wealth from lower levies with workers. Most have reason to curry favor with the White House. So such deals may be less than they seem – while others will struggle to hold on to any benefits at all.
Uber for everything will arrive in 2018 21 Dec 2017 The tech industry spent 2017 awash with cash and keen to disrupt the entire global economy. But loopy ideas, on everything from juice-making to how to treat co-workers, suggest a little hubris is creeping in. Breakingviews duly offers a few investment pitches for the year ahead.
Fed calls time on monetary and regulatory activism 21 Dec 2017 After nearly a decade of zero rates, asset purchases and tighter rules, the central bank is stepping back. Janet Yellen started the trend as the crisis receded, but her chair apparent promises a real laissez-faire shift. Markets may struggle to adapt to life without a Powell put.
Who’s driving global growth in 2018? 21 Dec 2017 Here’s how forecast global GDP expansion breaks down for the coming year, based on World Bank estimates. Flex the individual country numbers to change their relative shares, and the overall result.
India bids adieu to “promoter” capitalism in 2018 21 Dec 2017 The country's errant tycoons have fewer places to hide as Prime Minister Modi ushers in a new era of governance, starting with a strict insolvency code. This will send serial defaulters packing and signal a shift towards more market, creditor and shareholder-friendly forces.
Chinese government debt will go global 21 Dec 2017 A major index will include Chinese government bonds in 2018, dragging foreign money into a $9 trillion market. Beijing will appreciate the foreign stamp of approval. But sovereign guarantees will give scant cover against volatility spreading outwards from corporate credit.
China pulls disappearing debt trick 20 Dec 2017 Beijing talked up better-quality growth and risk management in its latest annual economic preview. But reducing the country’s $30 trln debt load, last year’s “top priority,” was barely mentioned. It’s a worrying sign if China’s leaders can’t kick the country’s credit addiction.
The Exchange: Newark Mayor Ras Baraka 20 Dec 2017 Will Amazon choose New Jersey's largest city as the location for its second headquarters? That's what hometown native Baraka is hoping - and he's lobbying hard to make it happen, even trying to cajole neighboring New York City to play a role in swaying the e-commerce juggernaut's decision.