BREAKINGVIEWS

Fiat can’t wait forever for Renault to sort itself

18 September 2019

The collapsed merger of the two car groups promised savings worth 33 bln euros. That’ll shrink if Fiat kickstarts its own electric-car investments rather than piggybacking on Renault’s. The longer the French take to win over hesitant ally Nissan, the less sense a Fiat deal makes.

Moncler sings like canary in China’s lux coal mine

18 September 2019

Boss Remo Ruffini’s statement of the obvious, that Hong Kong protests will dampen sales of its bling puff jackets, is a warning sign for rivals. With unrest deterring shopping-mad tourists, fully rebuilding on the mainland what’s been lost in the Fragrant Harbour will be tough.

Revolving door makes EU bank cop look hapless

18 September 2019

The main lobbyist for European banks named a top regulator as its new boss. Shuttling from government to industry is not unusual but should involve a cooling off period. Already criticised for being insufficiently tough, the hire will compound the watchdog’s image problem.

Spain turns Italian as economic fault lines widen

18 September 2019

The fourth election in four years follows Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s failure to form a government. Unlike in Italy, bond investors have shrugged off Spain’s dysfunctional politics. But gridlock has left debt high as growth dips, while the Catalan question remains unsolved.

Defence deal puts post-Brexit UK in crosshairs

18 September 2019

The government is reviewing the $5 bln acquisition of Cobham by U.S. buyout group Advent. The aviation contractor’s investors already approved it, and national security concerns are spurious. Blocking the sale would imply Britain’s post-Brexit future is more closed than open.

Pig crisis gives China a shot at transparency

18 September 2019

African swine fever has driven local pork prices up by about 50% in a year. Inflation remains muted regardless, prompting some speculation that officials may be massaging the figures. Other factors make that unlikely, but it's a rare opportunity for Beijing to open up – a little.

AB InBev returns to Hong Kong with a soberer pitch

18 September 2019

The Belgian brewer’s Asia unit has relaunched its failed IPO with a lower $4.8 bln target, offering a better growth story at a similar valuation. CEO Carlos Brito may fetch more for the business than he originally wanted, too. Flourishing in a rocky market will be the tough part.

Data turns from asset to M&A liability

17 September 2019

Minority stakes in U.S. firms with sensitive information on Americans may soon be subject to national security reviews – a sensible acknowledgement that data has value. There’s a cost though. Casting the net that wide will put a chill on inbound deals, and not just from China.

Money-market wobble is whodunnit without a villain

17 September 2019

The U.S. Fed pumped in $53 bln to calm interbank lending after rates spiked. The movements were dramatic, but the many causes look mostly mundane. Banks might use the ructions to argue they deserve a regulatory break. Such ripples, though, can be tolerated, and may have to be.

Saudi Aramco is back, and a little less valuable

17 September 2019

The oil giant thinks its supplies will have fully recovered from drone attacks by the end of the month. That’s good for Aramco’s credibility, and also for a balanced global market. Yet investors now have a new risk to price in, and oil prices are more likely to remain subdued.

Sony’s activist defence is only semi-convincing

17 September 2019

The $75 bln Japanese entertainment conglomerate rejected a call from Dan Loeb’s Third Point to spin off its chips business. The long-term case for keeping it is fuzzy but this may not be the best time for separation. It’s harder to support Sony holding onto its finance unit.

African phone-mast IPO is ready for safari

17 September 2019

London-based Helios Towers is dusting off last year’s plans to take its portfolio on the road. Places like Congo have improved politically, and growth prospects across the continent look worth the journey. A possible $2 billion valuation is in plain sight.

WeWork value shrinks even further without an IPO

17 September 2019

CEO Adam Neumann postponed a float, which may have pegged his office-sharing startup’s worth at $10 bln compared with a $47 bln private price tag. Yet without an IPO, parent The We Company’s growth may stall. If so, WeWork’s true value could be half even its mooted listing price.