BREAKINGVIEWS

Bitcoin isn’t a currency, but a bet on skepticism

22 January 2021

Reasons to doubt the cryptocurrency, up over 250% in a year, are legion. It’s a poor unit of exchange, and the price is driven by speculative retail traders. As a reflection of mistrust in government, though, it offers a useful market signal – one that could rise long term.

Cineworld’s new release is moral hazard disaster

22 January 2021

The $1.3 bln movie chain wants to give executives including CEO Mooky Greidinger shares which would be worth $142 mln if they recover to pre-Covid-19 levels. It’s a skewed reward for a company which owes its survival to creditors and governments. Only investors can stop it.

How to pick the hydrogen industry’s future Amazon

22 January 2021

The element could play a major role in decarbonisation, which has sent shares in related companies skyrocketing. As with the 1999 tech-stock boom, investors can’t tell which group can corner the market. But they can see which uses of hydrogen will become cost-competitive first.

Google threat demands that Australia find allies

22 January 2021

The tech titan says it’ll disable search Down Under if Canberra enacts a law forcing it to pay media companies for news. It goes to show how much clout $1.3 trln parent Alphabet thinks it has. Such corporate dominance suggests global regulators may have to put up a united front.

Chinese edge of India’s fintech star is too sharp

22 January 2021

The $16 bln Paytm sought to emulate China’s e-commerce and mobile wallet pioneers, including backer Ant. But that model has come under Beijing’s scrutiny, and rivals like Google have broken Paytm’s grip on payments. Founder Vijay Shekhar Sharma’s startup has hit a tricky patch.

Australia commits unforced tennis error

22 January 2021

Foreign players are flying in for the Grand Slam tournament even as strict pandemic policies have left citizens struggling to get home. Stars like Novak Djokovic complaining about quarantine don’t help. Flimsy economic considerations may be distorting risk assessments.

DowDuPont activist legacy spawns new activism

21 January 2021

Starboard Value wants new directors and a new CEO at $33 bln Corteva. The seed and pesticide group is one of three born from the 2017 merger and later breakup of Dow and DuPont. That grand plan looked good on paper to other noisy investors, but making it work is proving hard.

Keystone XL is stage for more political theater

21 January 2021

The logic behind the U.S. pipeline was already on the fritz. Oil’s future is uncertain, especially the crude in Canada that Keystone would have transported. Banks, too, were pulling back from lending. Joe Biden’s order nixing the project is mostly symbolic of future intentions.

Perella Weinberg deal boosts SPAC credibility

21 January 2021

A $977 million price tag for the M&A advisory shop values it lower than peers based on reasonable growth assumptions. It's a sensible figure for a real business in a competitive market. Perella's choice to go public by selling to a blank-check company looks well advised.

Russian mining IPO comes with sanctions noise

21 January 2021

Nord Gold is planning a $5 bln listing in London, the WSJ reports. Severstal billionaire Alexey Mordashov only has a minority stake, but his sons own most of the rest. Investors need to consider the risk that the new U.S. administration decides to take a tougher line on Moscow.

Brexit legacy will clip sterling’s wings

21 January 2021

The currency hit an eight-month high against the euro. Vaccine rollouts, on which GDP rebounds depend, are more advanced in UK than many countries. But non-tariff barriers are hindering trade with the EU, which may hold back growth. That will limit the pound’s scope to fly.

Options trading bubble draws frothy M&A equivalent

21 January 2021

Britain’s IG is buying tastytrade for $1 bln in cash and shares. The price seems high, even allowing for surging demand for the Chicago-based group’s derivatives products. As with the current stock-market boom, success depends on continued interest from flighty retail traders.

Couche-Tard may be impulse buyer after French fail

21 January 2021

Founders of the minimart empire, blocked from buying Carrefour, have a super voting share that expires in 11 months. After that they’d need investor support for a big purchase like German grocer Metro. The 13% drop in the Canadian group’s stock shows fears of a short-term spree.