Return to imbalances

28 October 2009 By John Foley Follow @johnsfoley

China and Korea are showing an incipient export recovery. The revival in trade may partly reflect excess global liquidity, and partly the immaturity of China s consumer economy. Whatever the causes, returning Asian trade surpluses should be a concern.

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South Korea reported GDP growth of 0.6% for the third quarter of 2009, measured against the previous threemonth period. Exports increased 5.9%, quarter on quarter, according to data released on October 26.

Hong Kong exports were down 8.6% year on year in September, but up 5.9% month on month, according to data released on October 27. Imports fell 3.1% on an annual basis, and rose 8.4% month on month.

Chinese exports fell the least in the nine months to September, with a 15.2% decline year on year, but an 11.8% increase month on month. The trade surplus fell to $12.9bn, from $15.7bn in August.

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