No great Sheikhs

27 November 2009 By George Hay Follow @gfhay

Shares in banks that lent to Dubai World plunged after the stateowned holding company announced a standstill on debt payments. But the possible losses don t look very large, unless the whole oilrich UAE comes undone. Dubai s neighbours are more likely to reduce lenders pain.

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Royal Bank of Scotland is the most exposed global bank to Dubai World syndicated debt, according to JPMorgan research.

Data detailing syndicated loan issuance since January 2007 indicates that RBS has been bookrunner on $2.3 billion of the $13.6 billion of loans to the Dubai government related entity, which said on 25 November it would ask creditors for a standstill agreement and look to extend maturities on debt repayments by Dubai World and its property unit Nakheel until at least May 30 next year.

However, JPMorgan estimates that most bookrunners have retained only 10% of the debt outstanding, meaning RBS would be exposed to only $230 million. Other exposed banks include Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse ($1.7 billion total exposure each).

HSBC and Standard Chartered have the largest exposure to the United Arab Emirates among European banks, with $17 billion and $7.8 billion respectively – or 18% and 43% of their net asset values. Barclays and RBS have $3.6 billion and $2.2 billion respectively, each representing 5% of group NAV.

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