Saddam securities

3 March 2003

An approximation is wellnigh impossible. But socalled Saddam securities at least allow a rough estimate of how assets might behave if there was a war. Or none.

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Baghdad's destruction of some of its alSamoud 2 missiles and Ankara's rejection over the weekend of US plans to use Turkey as a base for a land attack on Iraq has raised the prospect that war on Iraq will be delayed.

Gold and oil prices slipped, while equities rose modestly, suggesting some erosion of the war premium. However, socalled Saddam Securities, a series of futures contracts that prices the probability that Saddam Hussein will no longer be President at the end of June, were unchanged at 73%.

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