Green guesses

8 December 2011 By Christopher Swann

Tighter environmental rules will curb coal, boost cleaner gas and cause a leap in vehicle efficiency, the energy titan says. This rosy scenario has the growth in CO2 emissions halting by 2030. But despite hefty gas investments, a less green future would also suit Exxon dandily.

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Global demand for natural gas will rise by about 60 percent between 2010 and 2040, making it the fastest growing major fuel, according to forecasts by Exxon Mobil released on Dec. 8. The largest publicly traded energy firm expects consumption of oil to rise by 30 percent over the same period.

Exxon estimates that emissions of carbon dioxide will plateau around 2030 and will remain unchanged over the following decade.

Consumption of electricity will rise by 80 percent up to 2040, the firm forecasts. Overall demand for energy will rise by 30 percent. The firm adds that without gains in efficiency the growth in energy demand would be four times faster.

The global output of carbon dioxide, which traps heat in the earth’s atmosphere, rose by the largest amount on record in 2010, according to calculations by the U.S. Department of Energy.

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