An inauspicious start

31 January 2008 By Jeffrey Goldfarb Follow @jgfarb

The year started with a cascade of pitiful data. The value of cancelled IPOs nearly matched what went to market. Mergers fell to a threeyear low. Securitisation and LBOs collapsed. There s little solace other than repeating It s just one month . And clutching at the Super Bowl.

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The following data for January 2008 were supplied by Thomson Financial.

Worldwide announced M&A totalled $164.1bn from 2,471 deals, the fewest monthly deals since February 2005 (2,435) and the lowest dollar volume announced since November 2004 ($147.5bn).

Twentyone IPOs valued at $6.3bn were withdrawn compared with 46 IPOs valued at $6.5bn that proceeded to market.

Securitisation volume fell to $27.2bn, an 82.5% decline from January 2007.

Using 10 years of monthly data supplied by Dealogic, Breakingviews calculated that on average January accounts for 7.9% of a year's total M&A volume, 5.6% of equity capital markets and 10% of debt capital markets. Extrapolating January 2008 figures would mean that fullyear M&A would be about $2.5tr, ECM $642bn and DCM $4.2tr.

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