Kenya's economic treadmill

31 December 2007 By Martin Hutchinson

The rancour over the reelection of Kibaki won’t change much economically. Kenya differs from successful African countries like Ghana, Mali and Botswana in two ways: faster population growth and greater corruption. Solving those problems is crucial, but may now be harder.

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President Mwai Kibaki was sworn in for a second term December 31 after a December 27 election in which he won a narrow victory, disputed by the main opposition candidate Raila Odinga. According to published results, Kibaki won 46.7% of the vote, Odinga 44.3%. Riots following the result announcement have left 120 dead. Kibaki's parliamentary position is likely to be weak, with 20 government ministers and Wangari Maathai, the 2004 Nobel peace prize winner, having lost their seats

Kenya's gross domestic product (official exchange rate) was $17.5bn in 2006, and grew at 6.1%; it is expected to grow at about 7% in 2007. Inflation was 14.5% in 2006. Its population is 36m, growing at 2.8% annually, its GDP per capita (purchasing power parity) is $1,200 and its budget deficit 2.5% of GDP on public spending of 29% of GDP. Kenya ranked 150th of 179 on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index in 2007 with a score of 2.1; it was 96th of 102 with a score of 1.9 in 2002.

Ghana has a population growth rate of 1.97% per annum and a GDP per capita of $2,700, Mali a population growth rate of 2.6% per annum and a GDP per capita of $1,300 and Botswana a population growth rate of 1.5% per annum and a GDP per capita of $10,900. Ghana, Mali and Botswana ranked 69th, 118th and 38th on the 2007 Corruption Perceptions Index. In 1980 Kenya had a GDP per capita in current dollars of $446, compared with Ghana $393, Mali $256 and Botswana $1,011.

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