Get out the vote!

20 August 2010 By Martin Hutchinson

The Andean country has enjoyed standout economic growth in 2010, but this may not last. In next April s election, it will choose between resourcesled growth like Chile, state expansion like Argentina or full state control like Venezuela. Peruvians votes will really matter.

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Alan Garcia, Peru's president, said this week he is planning to reshuffle his cabinet at an opportune time in order for departing ministers to run in next April's presidential election. Possible governmentsupporting candidates include Prime Minister Javier Velasquez and Finance Minister Mercedes Araoz.

The election is likely to involve several strong candidates, with Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the imprisoned expresident Alberto Fujimori, currently leading in opinion polls for the centerright Fuerza 2011 party. Leftist Ollanta Humala, backed by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and narrow loser in 2006, and centrist Lima Mayor Luis Castañeda Lossio also have strong support.

Peru's GDP was $129 billion in 2009 at market exchange rates, or $8,600 per capita at purchasing power parity. GDP grew 0.9 percent last year; in the year to June, growth was 11.9 percent, while the Economist panel expects growth of 6.7 percent in calendar year 2010 and 4.1 percent in 2011. Peru's principal exports are copper, gold, zinc, crude oil and coffee. The Economist panel expects a current account deficit of 1.4 percent of GDP and a budget deficit of 1.2 percent of GDP in 2010. Inflation was 1.8 percent in the year to July and the threemonth interest rate is 2.45 percent.

Public spending rose 38 percent yearonyear in the first half of 2010, but the rise is expected to slow to 20 percent in the second half of the year. Every sol spent in public investment generates 50 cents more of private investment, Araoz, the finance minister, said on Aug. 10.

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