Patpong roulette

21 May 2010 By Martin Hutchinson

The Thai economy is fragile and heavily dependent on tourism and foreign investment. As a consequence, the current conflict brings huge risks to both sides, while even the political losers will benefit economically from fair and peaceful elections.

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After weeks of rioting in and around Bangkok and a military operation against rioters that killed more than 60 civilians, the Red Shirt followers of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra abandoned their occupation of much of central Bangkok May 21. Prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had offered fresh elections in November, but has withdrawn that offer.

While the Thai government forecasts 4.5 percent GDP growth in 2010, the Economist panel of forecasters expect 3.2 percent growth in 2010 followed by 4.2 percent in 2011; inflation is forecast at 3.3 percent and population growth around 0.6 percent annually. The current account surplus in the year to March was 5.9 percent of GDP, while the budget deficit is expected to be 3.7 percent of GDP in 2010.

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