Peso say-so

27 Sep 2016 By Peter Thal Larsen Follow @Peter_TL

Forex traders decided Hillary Clinton won the first debate. A stronger Mexican peso suggests President Trump is a bit less likely, while the safe-haven yen weakened. Further gyrations will follow. But as the Brexit referendum showed, markets are bad at predicting elections.

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Asian shares recovered and the Mexican peso surged on Sept. 27 as investors awarded the first U.S. presidential debate to Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6 percent. A CNN poll suggested that 62 percent of viewers of the televised debate felt that Clinton had won.

The dollar sank 1.7 percent against the peso. The Mexican currency recently hit an all-time trough, consistent with concerns that a Trump presidency would threaten Mexico’s exports to the United States. The Canadian dollar also rallied.

The Japanese yen briefly weakened to 101 against the U.S. dollar, before recovering to 100.53.

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