Edward Hadas is a former economics editor at Reuters Breakingviews and also worked at the Financial Times as assistant editor of the Lex column. Before becoming a journalist, he worked for 23 years as an equity analyst in Europe and the United States. He has written a book, "Human Good, Economic Evils: A Moral Approach to the Dismal Science" (ISI Books, 2007), and is a visiting senior fellow in the School of Management and Social Sciences at St. Mary's University, London. Edward has degrees from Columbia University, Wadham College, Oxford and the State University of New York at Binghamton.
In theory, movements in bond and stock prices have big economic effects. In practice, the ties are fairly tenuous. But the widespread belief that these minor and inaccurate indicators are valuable is enough to give them power. A bad week in the markets can do real economic harm.
Paul Romer won half the 2018 prize for recognising that education and governments help growth. William Nordhaus won the other half for condemning man-made climate change. Obvious? Maybe, but their work has complex equations. Unfortunately, these obscure more than they clarify.
Farmers respond to high pork prices, so the hog cycle keeps turning. It’s different for housing. An excess of money, not a shortage of buildings, usually turns prices upwards. And the cycle reverses when the money runs out, sometimes because lenders take fright at new supply.