Swaha Pattanaik is Global Economics Editor at Reuters Breakingviews, based in London. Previously Reuters’ EMEA financial markets editor, she writes about global financial markets, macroeconomics, and policymaking. She was posted to Paris as Reuters’ senior economics correspondent and to Brussels as its European economic and monetary affairs correspondent. Before then she was the head of the Reuters FX reporting desk in London. Prior to joining Reuters, she worked for Bloomberg, Euromoney, and consulting firm IDEA. She has an MSc in Political Theory and Political Sociology from Birkbeck and a BSc (Econ) in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics from the London School of Economics.Follow @swahapattanaik
Money markets imply the European Central Bank will hike twice this year, even though its boss says policy tightening is unlikely in 2022. She will have to work hard to convince markets, but reason is on her side. Wage pressures are less evident in the euro zone than in America.
Pundits love to guess when Chair Jay Powell will tighten monetary policy. But that matters less than where rates end up. Most Fed officials think this so-called terminal rate is around 2.5%. Given higher inflation, that’s probably too low. Markets are starting to realise that.
The Bank of England is the first major central bank to hike its policy rate. The ECB faces less acute price pressures and the Fed must consider the job market alongside inflation. It’s a gamble, but acting now means British rate-setters will have less hiking to do in the future.