HSBC’s new CEO strives for profitable banality 11 Jun 2018 John Flint’s plan to lift return on tangible equity above 11 pct, while investing up to $17 bln in technology and China, is hardly radical. Yet aiming for more than modest revenue growth could be reckless. It should be enough to maintain the bank’s premium to its European peers.
Argentina’s $50 bln IMF deal has a year to work 8 Jun 2018 President Macri, like Cardinal Mazarin’s preferred generals, has been lucky as well as bold so far in his efforts to fix Latin America’s No. 3 economy. With elections not due until late 2019 and the deal shielding social spending, he has time to beat opponents’ IMF-phobia - just.
Hadas: Market complacency curses debtor countries 31 May 2018 President Erdogan is wrong to claim a sinister “interest rate lobby” has aggravated Turkey’s structural weaknesses. Foolish foreigners have, however, financed unsustainable consumption binges in this and other economies. Remedies range from regulatory nudges to capital controls.
Macri risks IMF self-harm in search for stability 8 May 2018 Argentina’s president wants funding from the global lender as a further buttress against inflation and a run on the peso. It could help make reforms stick and provide an outsider to blame. But the country’s history with the IMF means it might also dim Macri’s political prospects.
Emerging markets split into haves and have-nots 8 May 2018 A stronger dollar and higher U.S. bond yields have hit Argentina, Indonesia and Turkey especially hard. But others like the Philippines are in sounder economic shape. Buoyant oil prices create winners as well as losers. For investors, discrimination is the better part of valour.
Argentine central bank’s grip holds – for now 7 May 2018 Sharp rate hikes to 40 pct last week halted a slide in the peso. A tough stance against inflation and Mauricio Macri’s relative fiscal discipline are needed for long-term economic health. But tightening the screws puts the president’s domestic popularity and policies at risk.
Latam oil opening demands hedged bets 2 May 2018 The region's growing receptiveness to foreign investment in its energy assets could be a dream come true for oil majors. Political winds can change, though, and there is no perfect blend of hydrocarbon potential and legal certainty. Brazil and Mexico will do better than the rest.
Chile reinforces Latin American pro-business pivot 18 Dec 2017 Billionaire Sebastian Piñera won the copper-rich nation's presidential election with a stronger showing than expected. That will lend succor to like-minded leaders in Argentina, Brazil and Peru for whom fiscal discipline is proving a long slog and graft allegations a danger.
Review: The next fight for Latin America’s soul 17 Nov 2017 Dictators and demagogues have come and gone; progress in the region has been impressive. Still, rule of law and effective institutions still lack, Michael Reid writes in "Forgotten Continent." That makes the next steps toward prosperity harder.
Growth shows up just in time for Argentina’s Macri 22 Sep 2017 The pro-business leader is counting on economic recovery to salve the pain of austerity as he undoes the spendthrift policies of populist predecessor Cristina Fernandez. Strong second-quarter growth is likely to help him stymie her aspirations of a comeback in mid-term elections.
Carrefour’s ills demand Tesco-like revamp and more 31 Aug 2017 The French supermarket said full-year operating profit could fall 12 percent, partly due to stiff competition at home. The grocer’s new CEO faces even more challenges than Tesco’s Dave Lewis did three years ago. Domestic market share is shrinking and its online offering is weak.
Argentina gives Macri a narrow vote of confidence 14 Aug 2017 The president’s nemesis and predecessor Cristina Fernandez did not fare as well as expected in Sunday’s primary election. The peso’s strength in response shows the markets back Macri’s reforms. But Fernandez’s tally is a reminder the economic recovery is not reaching the poorest.
Mexico and Canada on the lookout for new friends 14 Jul 2017 Donald Trump will soon present demands for a revised trade pact. Uncle Sam's size gives it leverage, but America’s neighbors have been seeking out partners in South America and Europe. This could benefit firms like Adecoagro in Argentina and Germany’s Oetker over U.S. rivals.
Viewsroom: Helping Uber hail a new CEO 22 Jun 2017 Filling departed founder Travis Kalanick’s seat is no easy task, so we offer some suggestions. Elsewhere, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’ seemingly crazy $13.7 bln offer for struggling grocer Whole Foods has some logic. Anbang lands in hot water in China. And the lure of 100-year debt.
Argentina grinds toward economic credibility 22 Jun 2017 Within just a couple of days Latin America’s third-largest economy sold a rare 100-year bond and was then surprisingly snubbed for inclusion in a major stock index by MSCI. Amid all the noise, President Mauricio Macri is slowly asserting the dullness of competence.
Century-bond hope defeats Argentine experience 19 Jun 2017 Less than three years after the last of eight defaults in 200 years, Buenos Aires is tempting desperate investors with a yield of nearly 8 pct. Mauricio Macri's reforms have stoked confidence. But the deal says more about short-term fads than the long-term odds of repayment.
Latin America trumps populism – for now 22 Feb 2017 Ecuadoreans denied a first-round election victory to their leftist president's chosen successor. As in Brazil and Argentina, that opens the door to a traditional pro-business candidate. But growing U.S. demagoguery gives the region's politicians an excuse to ramp up nationalism.
Macri sacrifice of finance chief buys limited time 27 Dec 2016 The Argentine president has scapegoated Alfonso Prat-Gay for the economy's failure to take off. His exit won't reduce 40 pct inflation and a bloated deficit. Macri's policies are sensible but not popular. The margin for error before October's midterm elections just narrowed.
Latin America’s rightward turn faces serious tests 22 Dec 2016 Several countries in the region have shunned leftist populism of late. But the pain from economic reforms in Argentina and Brazil could make voters reconsider, if it's not accompanied by growth. And Chile's consensus on fiscal prudence may unravel.
Argentina’s Macri loses skirmishes but winning war 30 Aug 2016 The president's big-bang approach to fixing the economy after years of state largesse has yet to pay off. A court has even blocked home-heating bill hikes. But Macri is learning no battle plan survives contact with the enemy. A more measured strategy will bring results in 2017.