Ecuador

Ecuador spat reveals sovereign-debt market cracks

30 July 2020

Investors are suing to halt the country’s $17.4 bln restructuring, claiming it’s hoodwinking bondholders. They have a point. Going to court is a long shot, but Ecuador’s tactics will hurt its market-friendly makeover. And it may prompt an overhaul of how countries borrow, too.

Ecuador is willing pawn in Argentina debt standoff

20 July 2020

Quito will tweak voting rules in its $17.4 bln restructuring, helping creditors pressure the larger LatAm debtor to do likewise. It’s an easy change to make and would still help emerging-market borrowers avoid being held to ransom in the future. Buenos Aires should take the hint.

Corona Capital: Latin America and Covid-19

8 April 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Six Latin American countries want a $15 billion loan to help fight Covid-19. "There's no harm in trying" says Peru's president, a sad sentiment reflecting the global shortage of needed equipment.

Corona Capital: Ackman’s hedge, Oil stockpiles

26 March 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout, including investor Bill Ackman’s surprise reversal of fortune, and the U.S. shale oil bailout that wasn’t.

LatAm leaders will be trapped in vicious cycle

26 December 2019

Protests across the region will make growth even lousier in 2020, which in turn will make people even angrier. The presidents of Chile and Ecuador are most exposed. Expect them to water down reforms in a bid to stay in office. Whether it works or not, their economies will suffer.

Macri’s likely defeat a warning to LatAm reformers

25 October 2019

Argentines are expected to oust would-be reformer Mauricio Macri in Sunday’s elections, which follow weeks of violent protests across the region. In the post-commodity-boom era, Latin American reformers need to find a new identity that is neither leftist nor too austere.

Viewsroom: WeWork’s future may lie in China’s past

24 October 2019

Beijing-based Kr Space switched from renting out space held on long-term leases to selling services after the shared-office market crashed. Following suit may help WeWork stem losses. Also: climate change and Canada’s election. Plus: the gloomy IMF and unrest in Latin America.

Ecuador violence tests new IMF chief’s resolve

9 October 2019

Days before Kristalina Georgieva presides over her first annual meeting, President Lenin Moreno fled the capital as IMF-backed austerity measures sparked riots. Balancing support for the tough choices he’s making, while improving the IMF’s standing in the region, will be tricky.

Ecuador exit an irksome speck in OPEC’s eye

2 October 2019

Saudi Arabia may shrug off the latest departure from the oil-producing group over which it presides. Ecuador has other priorities that make it expedient to detach. But the net effect is bad for OPEC, because it’s a reminder that the value of membership is dwindling.

Latam oil opening demands hedged bets

2 May 2018

The region's growing receptiveness to foreign investment in its energy assets could be a dream come true for oil majors. Political winds can change, though, and there is no perfect blend of hydrocarbon potential and legal certainty. Brazil and Mexico will do better than the rest.

Latin America needs leaders who can say “adios”

4 April 2017

A reluctance to cede power is a common failing in a region known for strongmen and weak institutions. Protesters who torched Paraguay’s Congress over the issue last week had the right idea, if wrong method. Rulers’ refusal to let go clouds prospects in Ecuador and Venezuela too.

Latin America trumps populism – for now

22 February 2017

Ecuadoreans denied a first-round election victory to their leftist president's chosen successor. As in Brazil and Argentina, that opens the door to a traditional pro-business candidate. But growing U.S. demagoguery gives the region's politicians an excuse to ramp up nationalism.

Latam’s poor need institutions more than saviors

26 February 2016

Leftist Bolivian leader Evo Morales, in office since 2006, lost a referendum that could have let him preside over the Andean nation until 2025. Self-perpetuation in power, even by pragmatists who slash poverty, shortchanges the poor. Good governance and rule of law matter more.

Letter to the Editor: Ecuador’s so-called Miracle

22 September 2014

An Ecuadorean consultant takes issue with Rob Cox’s column on President Rafael Correa’s stewardship of the South American nation over the past seven years, pointing to erosion of freedom of the press, greater control over the judicial system and unchecked government spending.

Rob Cox: Ecuador economic "miracle" meets maturity

11 September 2014

President Rafael Correa’s experiments in modern socialism helped the country cut poverty, grow and prosper. But his investment-led model has run its course. Now he has to soften his defiance of international norms, from the bond market to the World Bank, to keep progress alive.

Ecuador winning bond market forgiveness too easily

19 May 2014

Low inflation, scant supply and an improving economy may be driving appetite for a planned $700 mln offering. But the country defaulted on $3.2 bln of debt only six years ago. While absolution – or amnesia – may be good for deadbeat regimes, it raises global financial risk. 

Assange asylum is a political freebie for Ecuador

17 August 2012

The country’s leftist government has annoyed the U.S. by granting asylum to the WikiLeaks founder. Given that its oil exports, mineral exploration and loan funding are increasingly dominated by China, which suggested Assange for the 2010 Nobel, it’s also not totally surprising.