Egypt makes big leap toward civilian rule 13 Aug 2012 The Islamist president’s ousting of the ruling military chiefs is a decisive move to end the country’s political deadlock. And his reclaiming of legislative powers may help Egypt out of its economic impasse. But until a parliament is in place, power will be too concentrated.
Egypt’s economy is running on empty 8 Aug 2012 A $1 bln fall in foreign reserves in July underscores the growing fragility of Egypt’s finances. Aid from the Gulf has been a poor lifeline, and the country’s economy has seriously weakened since the uprising 18 months ago. That’s unlikely to change soon without outside help.
Egypt’s new PM is a big disappointment 24 Jul 2012 Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Mursi has appointed a little-known water minister to the top spot. That confirms that nobody qualified to fix Egypt’s finances wanted the job amidst a power struggle with the army. It’s another setback on the long road to recovery.
Hugo Dixon: Nonviolent struggles need leadership 2 Jul 2012 Immediately after the Arab Spring, the romantic idea emerged that velvet revolutions could emerge spontaneously via Facebook and Twitter. But Syria’s civil war and Egypt’s continuing power struggle show how revolutions need leadership to get both to first base and beyond.
No quick wins for Egypt’s new Islamist president 25 Jun 2012 For the Muslim Brotherhood, victory is bittersweet. The top job carries little power and might not last long. Securing an international aid deal would be the fastest way to jumpstart the economy and consolidate support. But donors may look on Egypt just as warily as before.
Egypt investors should fear army-Islamist showdown 15 Jun 2012 The supreme constitutional court has dissolved Egypt’s first freely-elected parliament two days before a presidential runoff. The looming confrontation between the majority Islamist movement and the still-ruling military can only increase investor risk.
Qatar play for EFG Hermes stokes backlash in Egypt 6 Jun 2012 The possible bidding war for the investment bank illustrates the growing fears about the emirate’s influence in post-Mubarak Egypt. EFG agreed to be partially taken over by QInvest. But the Gulf state’s rivals promise to keep the bank whole, and Egyptian. Now anything can happen.
Egypt’s EFG Hermes is worthy of a fight 4 Jun 2012 The region’s pre-eminent investment bank has sparked rival bid interest from Qatar and an Egyptian consortium. M&A-ers have to rise above doubt created by illegal share-dealing allegations and links with the old regime. But in a post-Mubarak world, EFG has a decent business.
Election no early relief for Egypt investors 28 May 2012 Egyptians will have to choose between the old regime and political Islam in the run-off to presidential elections. The Muslim Brotherhood candidate looks like a better bet to fix Egypt’s economy. But the vote leaves a polarised nation, which will be a source of worry to investors.
Election won’t end investor worries about Egypt 22 May 2012 The frontrunners in this week’s first round of the presidential poll have been vague about economic policy. It’s easy to pledge support for free markets, subsidy cuts and tax reform. It will be much harder to turn around Egypt’s fragile finances without sparking mass discontent.
Qatar brokers nifty exit for Egypt’s EFG Hermes 7 May 2012 State-backed QInvest is cherry-picking the assets of one of the Mideast’s top investment banks. The new JV will give EFG shareholders a payout worth one third of the bank’s market cap. It’s an elegant way to salvage value from a troubled Egyptian bank.
Iran offers Egypt limited lesson in subsidy reform 26 Apr 2012 The IMF says Cairo should look to Tehran’s example in its bid to reform energy subsidies. But a poor country like Egypt can hardly afford Iran’s near-universal and inflationary cash handouts at a time when it needs to slash public spending.
Egypt-Israel energy ties look broken 24 Apr 2012 It is hard to believe that Egypt’s termination of a long-term contract to supply gas to Israel is a pure business dispute given the odd timing of the move. In the absence of a resolution Israel faces some difficult months. That’s bad for peace but doesn’t destroy it.
Candidate cull dents Egypt’s election credibility 16 Apr 2012 The election body has barred 10 of the 23 Egyptian presidential candidates. Five weeks before the polls, the line-up and policies remain hazy. Whoever the winner, his name matters less than a timely, free and fair vote that will at last turn military into civilian rule.
Brotherhood holds Egyptian army to ransom on aid 10 Apr 2012 The popular Islamist movement won’t support an IMF deal without new terms, or unless the army gives up control of the government. With Egypt’s finances in a precarious state, this kind of tough talk will force the military to compromise, or risk a disorderly pound devaluation.
Egypt equities rebound may be part of bumpy ride 6 Feb 2012 Valuations are attractive even with a 27 pct rise this year. And the risk that the pound would fall harder than expected can be minimised. But even if the political problems have peaked, several potential flash-points promise investors that it won’t be a smooth ride.
Egypt’s Brotherhood toes fine line on economy 24 Jan 2012 The new leaders of Egypt’s parliament are proposing tough action to reform state finances: raising taxes, cracking down on slush funds, and cutting subsidies while increasing the social net for the poor. Few ideas are original. In new hands, they might turn into policies.
Hugo Dixon: 2011, a year of Gandhian struggle 19 Dec 2011 Nonviolent conflict has enjoyed a banner year: the Arab Spring, the Occupy movements, the anti-corruption campaign in India and stirrings of protest in Russia. But for the technique to fulfil its potential, clarity of purpose, unity and nonviolent discipline are required.
Wins by Egypt’s Islamists raise twin risks 5 Dec 2011 An Islamist-led parliament is set to replace a failed authoritarian secular one. Economic necessity should keep extremism at bay. But the Muslim Brotherhood’s long-term agenda, and the surprise success of ultra-conservative Salafis, will put investors on edge.
Egypt fosters false economic expectations 29 Nov 2011 In the post-Mubarak era, the Muslim Brotherhood’s call for “social justice” is now popular with every political force. But the concept means different things to rich and poor. Delivering the democratic dividend will be hard for any new government. Failure may lead to more unrest.