SABMiller’s growth focus raises Budweiser stakes 6 Oct 2015 The South African-born brewer used the G-word six times in the first three sentences of an ostensibly ordinary Q2 trading statement. The intention looks clear. Seven days ahead of Anheuser’s deadline to launch a formal $100 bln-plus offer, SAB is saying: pay up or shut up.
BoE’s Carney sails between honesty and expediency 6 Oct 2015 Full disclosure from the UK central bank governor could shake investors’ view that rates won’t rise for at least another year. But this might be inconvenient for Mark Carney since it would result in an economy-harming stronger pound. Carney may try for a calibrated compromise.
How capital union can ease EU banks’ great divide 6 Oct 2015 Europe’s proposals for a capital markets union are a boon for Spanish and Italian lenders. Banks investing in asset-backed debt needn’t use penal rating agency grades to measure capital. That should mean more equal funding for banks across Europe.
Insurer TBTF capital rules take baby step forward 5 Oct 2015 Regulators want to stop global insurance groups being too big to fail. New solvency add-ons make sense, and for now insurers don’t need extra capital. But the models are sensitive to volatile markets, and politics may impede a further leveling of the international playing field.
UK takes needless risk with Lloyds retail sale 5 Oct 2015 Britain is to hawk 2 bln stg of its remaining 12 pct bank stake to retail investors at a discount. Shareholder democracy is all very well. But further institutional sales would have meant more value for all taxpayers. And if shares tank, an avoidable political storm will erupt.
Poland’s coal mine meddling saps its credibility 5 Oct 2015 Premier Ewa Kopacz’s Brazilian-style intervention in the country’s energy sector has seen one state-controlled company replace defiant executives. It may soothe irate unions with elections imminent. But it’s far from what Poland’s capital markets and vibrant economy need.
Portugal vote shows scars of euro-crisis policies 5 Oct 2015 A weak poll victory may force incumbent PM Pedro Passos Coelho into a centre-right minority coalition. His reforms and fiscal austerity – following the euro zone template – lost votes. But Portugal is far from a political crisis. The Greek mess looks increasingly exceptional.
Hugo Dixon: Greek bank recap is race against time 5 Oct 2015 Capital must be injected by year-end to avoid a disastrous bail-in of uninsured depositors. To meet the deadline, Europe’s central bank must finish its stress test and decide how much capital is required. The banks then need time to see if private investors will take part.
Potash selloff shows flaws in K+S takeover defence 5 Oct 2015 Slumping demand for the fertiliser ingredient has prompted Canada’s Potash Corp to withdraw a 7.9 billion euro ($8.9 billion) offer for its German rival. For three months, K+S played hard to get even as prices fell. Shareholders may now regret its reluctance to negotiate.
Schaeffler gets second time unlucky with markets 2 Oct 2015 The German car-parts maker delayed its IPO amid a scandal at customer VW. It’s not Schaeffler’s first unhappy brush with markets. In 2009, the financial crisis foiled a hostile takeover of rival Continental, leaving the group almost bankrupt. Management again face a tough choice.
Edward Hadas: VW shows two sides of pushy culture 2 Oct 2015 If the carmaker’s workers had been on the lookout for bad news, the scandal over falsifying emissions could have been avoided. But VW’s management was geared for growth. The problem is perennial. The determination that drives business success also sows the seeds of its undoing.
Spain’s Big Oil beast has balance sheet work to do 2 Oct 2015 Repsol’s balance sheet looks stretched. It’s good it has exceeded its $1 bln asset sale target but the $13 bln Talisman deal leaves a burden. It will struggle to finance capex and dividends in a $50- $60 oil environment. It needs a game plan for its forthcoming strategy day.
Abu Dhabi pullback shows shifting sovereign sands 1 Oct 2015 Emirati fund Mubadala has sold a $3.6 bln loan portfolio jointly held with GE. It may be driven by the U.S. conglomerate’s turn away from finance. But the decision by its Gulf partner to follow is a sign of how sovereign investors have lost their risk appetite.
Carney hits potential sustainable-finance goldmine 1 Oct 2015 U.N. goals, a U.S.-China pact and papal concern are all fine ways to highlight global development issues. The problem is financing the $4 trln a year needed to solve the issues. The BoE governor’s idea to make companies lay out climate-change risks is one promising approach.
Rob Cox: Poland risks backsliding on free markets 1 Oct 2015 The country’s unparalleled success since communism’s fall owes much to its embrace of a liberal economic agenda. As elections approach, the rhetoric from leading politicians suggests a worrisome slippage from the principles that make Poland the envy of its European neighbors.
Garrett-Cox demotion could herald Alliance breakup 1 Oct 2015 The Alliance Trust CEO will step down to lead the struggling investment firm’s asset management division. Katherine Garrett-Cox will have to meet tough performance targets, or lose her mandate. Activist Elliott wanted more, but her probation is still a coup.
Bayer weakens itself via mistimed plastics IPO 1 Oct 2015 The German drug giant has slashed the size of its plastics arm’s listing by 40 pct and cut the price by a quarter, blaming China and VW woes. As the proceeds will be used to lower its own debt, its balance sheet will be weaker than it could have been. Bayer should have waited.
Commerzbank ought to consider merging with HVB 1 Oct 2015 The German lender makes poor returns, while its domestic rival’s Italian parent UniCredit could do with more capital. Putting Commerz and HVB together, ideally in an all-share merger, could help. It could also help Germany achieve a speedy exit for its Commerz stake.
Emerging market debtor crisis likely and needless 1 Oct 2015 An IMF study shows that emerging market borrowers have taken full advantage of stimulative post-crisis monetary policy. Higher rates are set to bring more defaults and a liquidity squeeze. Such woes could be avoided easily, if companies and investors turned away from debt to equity.
Darty may squeeze more from French suitor 1 Oct 2015 The electricals retailer is mulling a merger with French rival Fnac. Darty would get 45 pct of the merged group, ease its strained balance sheet and enjoy some cost savings. Even though 14 pct shareholder Knight Vinke supports the plan, there’s room for improvement on price.