Europe’s “whatever it takes” becomes “what next?” 2 Feb 2017 Bond yields are rising as the end of money-printing looms. The return of a crisis like the one that prompted ECB President Mario Draghi's pledge to save the euro zone is unlikely. Yet as investors focus on political risk and debt, governments will face tougher choices.
Hadas: Macron might show world a healthy populism 30 Jan 2017 The French presidential candidate has assumed the popular guise of an outsider who connects with voters, promising a glorious future. But this philosopher-banker loves the EU and pro-growth reform. President Macron might offer a helpful mix of vigour, rigour and active optimism.
Ireland is the filling in unappealing tax sandwich 30 Jan 2017 It's the big loser, in both trade and security, from the UK's exit from the EU. True, Ireland could pick up high-end investment as the UK sheds it, but even that hinges on an attractive tax rate, which is now under threat - both from its neighbour and from Donald Trump's America.
Britain’s global trade dream is second-best option 27 Jan 2017 Prime Minister Theresa May is hoping her meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump will open up a trade deal with the United States. China and others may follow. But the resulting boost to UK exports will probably be too small to replace those it risks losing by leaving the EU.
Merkel ignores dark side of job boom at her peril 26 Jan 2017 Rises in employment and real incomes mask the problem of growing income inequality in Germany. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ability to fend off an election challenge from the rebooted centre-left Social Democrats may hinge on how she proposes to stop the poor becoming poorer.
Syngenta forces hedgies to read Chinese tea leaves 26 Jan 2017 Investors have swung from despair to optimism over the agribusiness giant's $43 bln sale. The implied probability of ChemChina's bid for Syngenta succeeding has leapt from 10 pct to over 60 pct in a few short weeks. Beijing's involvement means extra complexity for arbitrageurs.
Italy’s Renzi has chance to stage feeble comeback 25 Jan 2017 The country's highest court has overhauled an electoral law crafted by Matteo Renzi. The ruling allows early elections, but that will be small consolation for the former prime minister. Even if he regains power, he may have to rely on a weak coalition that will enact few reforms.
Trump can teach May about the art of the deal 25 Jan 2017 A trade pact between the UK and the United States could be helpful to both. The faster it comes, the less comprehensive it would be. Yet what an accord between the two leaders might lack in scope would be made up for by the creation of a clear loser: Europe.
London bankers may dodge one-way trip to Frankfurt 25 Jan 2017 UK-based bankers accompanied by EU colleagues might still be able to advise continental clients after Britain leaves the bloc. The ruse might allow financial institutions to keep more staff in London. But both national and European laws would have to remain accommodating.
Intesa risks its halo with punt on Generali 25 Jan 2017 Carlo Messina has won investor kudos for running Italy's strongest and most profitable large bank. Splashing out on sickly insurer Generali would be the kind of dealmaking the Intesa CEO did well to avoid. A merger could bring appealing synergies, but also distinct risks.
Schulz makes German election more of a contest 24 Jan 2017 The country’s Social Democrats have chosen Martin Schulz to take on Angela Merkel. The former president of the European Parliament should mount a more effective challenge to the chancellor. Yet forming a stable left-of-centre government still looks a momentous challenge.
Brexit sceptics win battle but will lose the war 24 Jan 2017 Pro-EU campaigners succeeded in their quest to give parliament a say on triggering Brexit. The catch is that Prime Minister Theresa May will probably win a vote. Besides, her opponents would struggle to prove suboptimal outcomes like EEA membership are better than May's vision.
UK industrial strategy needs to go big or go home 23 Jan 2017 Theresa May is right to try and revive Britain's industry - not least because its financial services cash cow is en route to the slaughterhouse. Infrastructure, exchange rates and regional stimulus would be helpful priorities. Otherwise the squeakiest wheels may get the grease.
France’s Macron is gifted risky centre ground 23 Jan 2017 The presidential hopeful looks increasingly like the lone mainstream candidate in the country's coming election. It's a huge opportunity to attract voters turned off by more radical solutions from the left and right. Yet appearing conventional carries its own dangers.
Five things Davos Man will get wrong this year 23 Jan 2017 Each January the politicians, financiers and company bosses who gather in the mountains offer a snapshot of elite thinking. However, this "Davos consensus" is often wide of the mark. From Donald Trump to Xi Jinping, here are five widely-held views that will probably be mistaken.
Calm words won’t stop bankers leaving London 20 Jan 2017 The City is a big source of UK tax revenue and the European Union's main capital market. Both sides have good reasons for a sensible post-Brexit agreement on financial services. Unless they first extend the timetable, banks will not wait for a deal before moving staff.
Viewsroom: Davos goes topsy-turvy 19 Jan 2017 Team Trump is AWOL at the World Economic Forum's annual alpine shindig while Theresa May's Brexit plan has people on edge. That left it to China's Xi Jinping to defend globalization. Elsewhere, U.S. bank earnings disappoint. And Snapchat considers making investor rights disappear.
French Socialists compete to be first among losers 18 Jan 2017 The winner of the imminent primaries for the ruling party is unlikely to make it to the second round of the Gallic presidential race. Yet the economic policies of the also-ran may determine whether the National Front’s Marine Le Pen gets through to the final face-off.
Theresa May takes a Brexit big bath 17 Jan 2017 New company bosses often take major writedowns to give themselves a fresh start and flatter future earnings. In saying Britain could walk away from the EU’s single market, the prime minister is on the same page. Investors can now use the clean-break scenario as their base case.
Trump may force Germany to do more for Europe 16 Jan 2017 Donald Trump is threatening to slap U.S. import tariffs on German cars. For all the economic pain, this could give the EU a new lease of life. Internal pressure failed to make Berlin spend more or give fiscal concessions to southern Europe. External threats might work better.