Brexit index: The “Out” risk is real 1 Feb 2016 Britons are warming to the idea of Britain leaving the European Union, says a new Breakingviews Brexit index. It crunches nine different metrics to show the “Out” camp is gaining ground. The inputs include asylum applications, consumer confidence – and Daily Mail front pages.
EU tax reform is flawed – get used to it 28 Jan 2016 European measures to kybosh flagrant corporate tax avoidance schemes look broadly welcome. Without global agreements, though, disparities will always let the likes of Apple and Alphabet whittle down bills. And binding sovereign countries to one approach is akin to herding cats.
Ireland has limited shelter against Brexit storm 26 Jan 2016 The Irish state is right to fret about a UK exit from the EU. It could knock 20 pct off trade between the two countries and hit Ireland’s economic recovery. Rebranding Dublin as a financial hub would help – but requires Germany to beef up the euro zone’s half-done banking union.
Brexit trial run gives glimpse of post-vote mess 26 Jan 2016 With the focus on UK efforts to renegotiate relations with Brussels, less attention is going to what might happen if Britons did actually vote to leave the European Union. A wargame in London featuring former EU politicians gave a hint. Investors may want to cover their eyes.
UK business faces its own In-Out dilemma on Europe 21 Jan 2016 The British prime minister wants companies not to “hold back” on Britain’s future in Europe. Such a call must be heeded with caution. If the pro-EU debate hinges on what’s good for business – or even worse, the City – it may backfire.
VW plea from Brussels confuses cause and effect 20 Jan 2016 EU officials are urging the German carmaker to compensate Europeans like U.S drivers. VW’s two-tier scandal response, however, simply reflects the weaker emissions regime put in place by diesel-loving policymakers. Stricter standards will warrant tougher enforcement – next time.
EU monopoly fears may defeat data-sharing phobia 20 Jan 2016 Europe’s technology scene lags the U.S. in information-sharing, as in funding. Cultural and legal traits are tough to change. But data for medical research, for example, should be freely available. The EU’s financial tech upstarts could even benefit from antitrust moves, too.
Germany is more than a one-woman show 18 Jan 2016 Chancellor Angela Merkel is under pressure. But how would Germany’s role in Europe change without her? Probably not much. While a new leader might need time to build political capital, projects like the euro and keeping the EU together would still be in Germany’s interest.
Dixon: EU’s latest challenge – rule of law 18 Jan 2016 The Polish and Greek governments may be flouting the rule of law. This doesn’t just undermine democracy: it is bad for investment. Brussels is in a quandary. It doesn’t want to pick quarrels. But if it turns a blind eye, bad behaviour could spread.
ECB concedes oil and inflation do mix 13 Jan 2016 The central bank’s chief economist, Peter Praet, reckons the impact of falling oil prices on inflation may not be transient. That fact is a nightmare for rate-setters, who don’t control energy costs. Financial markets got this message some while ago.
New Greek opposition leader may cause instability 11 Jan 2016 The election of Mitsotakis, a liberal reformer, as leader of the centre-right New Democracy party means PM Tsipras now faces a credible opponent. While this is in Greece’s long-term interests, it raises the risk of short-term clashes between Athens and its euro zone creditors.
Dixon: EU enters brave new world of bank bail-ins 4 Jan 2016 Europe has wasted too much taxpayers’ money rescuing failing lenders. So it is right to try to get investors to help foot the bill in future. But the tough new regime carries political risks which could make the rumpus caused by recent bail-ins in Italy and Portugal look minor.
Dixon: EU could fall apart without flexibility 21 Dec 2015 Brussels’ knee-jerk reaction to crises is to ask for more power. Its latest series of problems has fuelled right-wing populism, which feeds off the idea that the EU already has too much influence. Unless the bloc adopts more decentralised solutions, it could unravel.
Europe’s least bad option: ditch Schengen 4 Dec 2015 The 26-country free border zone is struggling to cope with refugees and security risks. Abolishing Schengen would be expensive and wouldn’t solve migration problems. Yet it might dampen the populism in continental Europe and the UK that threatens Europe’s economic integration.
Dixon: EU-Turkey deal is historic, if it sticks 30 Nov 2015 The EU has dangled the prospect that Turkey can join the bloc, offered to liberalise visas and promised the government a chunk of cash in return for Ankara agreeing to stem the flow of migrants to Europe. The snag is that not all of the pact looks deliverable.
Abengoa has creditors over a barrel 27 Nov 2015 The beleaguered Spanish engineering group might survive if lenders take haircuts of two-thirds. In liquidation, losses could mushroom due to the group’s spiralling working capital needs, complex business and slow Spanish courts. Abengoa needs a speedy resolution and more cash.
German open-door isolationism is unsustainable 26 Nov 2015 Angela Merkel has ignored domestic calls to shut out refugees. But she will find it harder to brush off French calls for the same. Alienating a key ally would undermine the union Merkel wants to save, and threaten economic integration.
Bank regulator’s blunder sums up Europe’s troubles 25 Nov 2015 Lenders’ capital ratios are higher than previously calculated, the European Banking Authority has said. The watchdog’s technocratic remit makes the error galling. Such confusion could deter investment just as the region’s financial institutions are doing more to deserve it.
Time for Germany to let EU banking union fly 24 Nov 2015 The European Commission wants a mutualised deposit insurance scheme for banks by 2024. Berlin may be averse to the idea of financing non-German busts. But there are some safeguards, and unpicking the link between banks and states would better avoid trouble in the first place.
Dixon: How the EU could woo the UK 23 Nov 2015 The British prime minister wants to rework the UK’s relationship with Europe. Once complete, other EU leaders could launch a charm offensive to persuade Britain it is valued and influential, and to vote to stay in the union. Here’s what Merkel, Hollande, Renzi, et al could say.