Euro zone faces Franco-German growth whammy 9 Jan 2019 A drop in Gallic consumer confidence is worrying for a country that’s usually reliant on domestic demand. Meanwhile industry in Germany, an export champion, is feeling the strain from global trade tensions. Where the bloc’s two biggest economies lead, smaller peers will follow.
Sika pays up to cement its takeover defences 8 Jan 2019 The Swiss chemicals firm is paying $2.6 bln for France’s Parex. After a lengthy battle with Saint-Gobain, bulking up to dissuade further approaches makes sense. Relying on revenue synergies to make a decent return on its new deal removes some of the gloss, though.
Ghosn puts up his freedom as bond for his legacy 8 Jan 2019 The deposed 64-year-old automaker CEO has declared his innocence. Given Japan's 99 pct conviction rate, he could face a decade in jail. Ghosn may hope prosecutors back off. Either way, the man who saved Nissan creates space to pull off another unprecedented rescue - of himself.
French squeeze-out plans may tempt Arnault on Dior 7 Jan 2019 Paris wants to ease buyouts by cutting to 90 pct the bar for forcing out minorities. The new rules, along with a dip in luxury stocks, can revive the magnate’s interest in taking Christian Dior private. There’s no urgency for a leaner structure. But the bill may rise.
Italy’s woes could spell LVMH moment for Moncler 2 Jan 2019 Italian luxury brands have so far resisted becoming conglomerates like the French behemoth and rival Kering. But generational shifts by founders, combined with an aversion to political risk by global investors, may afford Moncler boss Remo Ruffini his opportunity to change that.
Weed, China, guns and money lead most-read stories 27 Dec 2018 We promised 2018 would bring “Froth and Frustration,” and that’s just what readers got. Other topics that piqued your interest: Rising populism in Italy, Brazil and France; Broadcom’s doomed bid for Qualcomm and the sale of Refinitiv by Breakingviews’ parent. Plus, fake meat.
Gatwick’s new French pilot has tougher flight path 27 Dec 2018 Construction group Vinci is paying $3.7 bln for a majority stake, days after the London airport grounded flights due to stray drones. The price looks toppy given Gatwick’s already-slick operation and Brexit uncertainties. Seller GIP and its co-investors had a better landing.
Euronext gives Oslo bourse surprise Christmas gift 24 Dec 2018 The pan-European group is ready to pay 625 mln euros for the Norwegian exchange. The festive offer already has the support of nearly 50 pct of investors. In the consolidating world of electronic trading, it’s getting harder to play alone. Accepting the holiday hamper makes sense.
Cox: France’s Macron can’t turn 41 fast enough 21 Dec 2018 The tail end of the president’s 40th year proved more eventful than he bargained for. The “gilets jaunes” caught him unawares and hardened the perception of him as an aloof dauphin. Business is still hopeful, but Macron needs more than rich Parisians’ backing to reform France.
Renault-Nissan: Only merging makes financial sense 19 Dec 2018 The French and Japanese carmakers' lopsided stakes in each other are a poor use of capital. A full-blown marriage could boost their value by about 30 percent. That’s less likely after Carlos Ghosn’s ouster as Nissan chairman; the auto alliance is driving in the wrong direction.
Natixis reminds investors why traders aren’t rated 19 Dec 2018 The French lender announced a 260 mln euro hit to fourth-quarter revenue after an Asian derivatives hedge went awry. A special dividend provides some relief. But it further bolsters the poor perception of Europe’s investment banks, most of which trade below book value.
LVMH pays luxury price to check into Belmond 14 Dec 2018 Bernard Arnault’s champagne-to-handbags group is spending $3.2 bln including debt on the owner of Venice’s Cipriani. The multiple of 19 times expected EBITDA is as punchy as a Belmond suite. The French group will need all its limited hotel experience to make the deal work.
Viewsroom: French misery gives Italy some company 13 Dec 2018 President Macron hopes a 10 bln euro splurge from state coffers will mollify rioters calling him the “president of the rich.” But it’ll worsen the country’s deficit, risking an EU rebuke. It may, though, offer cover for Italy, whose debt load is causing friction with Brussels.
Peugeot boss has better option to running Renault 13 Dec 2018 Carlos Tavares may be the most obvious European car executive to fill the Ghosn gap. But buying 22 bln euro Fiat Chrysler may be a more appealing alternative, so long as the Agnellis are looking to hand things over to the leader who best resembles the late Sergio Marchionne.
Club Med embarks on overheated holiday escape 13 Dec 2018 The vacation resorts arm of Chinese conglomerate Fosun priced its IPO at the bottom end of the indicated range. A $2.4 bln market cap, however, imputes a multiple on par with its most richly valued peers. Sluggish tourism trends could leave optimistic investors scorched.
Vincent Bolloré will break up Vivendi 12 Dec 2018 The 66-year-old tycoon is smarting from a drubbing by Elliott in Italy, and his media group suffers from a huge conglomerate discount. A partial sale of Universal Music may help. But dismantling the whole group would release $10 bln in value, and keep potential activists at bay.
Pernod Ricard served a shot of Diageo by Elliott 12 Dec 2018 The French booze group lags its rival on some counts, such as operating margins, but has bested it on others, notably share-price performance. Narrowing the gap on profitability, and improving corporate governance, as the activist urges, are worthy and achievable objectives.
Activism anxiety will grip French establishment 12 Dec 2018 Between the state and raiders like Vincent Bolloré, France is no stranger to meddling investors. But this year some blue-chips will face cage rattling. Pernod is just the start. The likes of Saint-Gobain, Danone, Renault - and even Bolloré’s Vivendi - are no longer off-limits.
“Pere Noel” Macron won’t cheer marchers or markets 11 Dec 2018 France’s president pivoted from Teutonic austerity to Matteo Salvini-ish populism in response to violent protests over inequality. He pledged state cash to help the underpaid and pensioners. That may push up French borrowing costs without pleasing those in yellow vests.
Telecom Italia stuck in activist feedback loop 11 Dec 2018 Top investor Vivendi wants to overhaul the Italian telco’s board months after a coup by rival Elliott. Regaining control looks hard and Elliott would remain a thorn in the French group’s side. Unless the two find common ground, a governance discount will weight on TIM shares.