Tidy-up puts $70 bln tobacco giant in good company 26 Jul 2023 India’s ITC is spinning off its hotels business but keeping a 40% stake. It’s a partial break from the firm that counts British American Tobacco as its top owner. Yet it may be the best way to close a valuation gap with its Tata-backed rival and fully cash in on a tourism boom.
Fading Russia windfall will test Ambani’s ambition 24 Jul 2023 Earnings at the Indian tycoon’s $210 bln Reliance disappointed. The high crude refining margins driven by the dislocation in energy markets are evaporating. As weak global demand bites, scrutiny will intensify on the conglomerate’s newer consumer-facing businesses.
Russian crude imports expose India forex struggle 18 Jul 2023 The UAE is the Modi administration’s new target as it tries to make the rupee a global trading currency. Sanctions-hit Russia wasn’t keen, so refiners like Indian Oil have to settle deals with Moscow in yuan. New Delhi has yet to show it’s offering more than a speculative bet.
West is sleepwalking off healthcare cliff 17 Jul 2023 Europe is scrambling to end its reliance on Chinese raw materials for green energy and chips. But policymakers forget the region sources 80% of ingredients for top medicines in the East. Producing them at home may prevent a crisis but it risks exacerbating public debt piles.
Drone IPO gives wings to India’s defence industry 11 Jul 2023 IdeaForge’s shares have nearly doubled since their debut, giving the government supplier a $586 mln valuation – or 151 times trailing earnings. It’s a bet that New Delhi will upgrade its military amid tensions with neighbours. India’s defence stocks look primed for takeoff.
Adani case threatens watchdog’s rising credibility 6 Jul 2023 Indian regulator Sebi has disciplined two media tycoons for alleged wrongdoing and strengthened disclosures for foreign investors. The moves fit Chair Madhabi Puri Buch’s tough reputation. But an inconclusive probe into the billionaire’s dealings could undermine recent progress.
India can aim lower in its chip dreams 5 Jul 2023 Despite offering $10 bln in subsidies, the country has only managed to attract Micron to build a less-advanced factory. Even so, the chance to grab share from China in the commoditised but vital low-tech chips market could pay off amid booming demand and geopolitical tensions.
India’s push to democratise credit tests limits 30 Jun 2023 It’s shaping its digital payments system, which supports 9 bln consumer transactions a month, into a loan engine. Homegrown card operator RuPay and fintech Paytm are winners. But growth in unsecured credit is blistering and the regulator is delivering mixed messages on the risks.
China plus one is best glue for India-US romance 23 Jun 2023 Prime Minister Modi’s largely successful state visit points to how India can help US firms like Tesla and Micron rejig supply chains. In sensitive areas like defence, trust is growing but remains in short supply. It keeps any hope of prising India away from Russia out of reach.
Fail with big backers signals messy Byju’s unwind 23 Jun 2023 Auditor Deloitte is walking away from the self-claimed world’s largest education tech firm, and investors including Prosus and what was Sequoia India appear to be following. It implies talks with lenders over a $1.2 bln loan are at a dead end and ups the pressure for a breakup.
Mega-merger gives Indian lender new lease on life 20 Jun 2023 HDFC Bank will, after combining with its parent and largest shareholder next month, become a $140 bln mortgage giant in a credit-starved market. That’s an enticing prospect for foreign investors - assuming the bank’s tech and culture get a needed overhaul.
Byju’s fight with lenders is a lose-lose scenario 13 Jun 2023 Creditors want the Prosus-backed education tech company – once India’s most valuable startup – to repay its punchy $1.2 bln loan early. It’s a technical default at most but digging very deep to clear the debt might help founder Byju Raveendran improve his company’s mixed marks.
Dicey Asian borrowers offer an unusual shelter 6 Jun 2023 Oaktree’s $500 mln loan to Anil Agarwal’s Vedanta is sizeable in the region’s private debt market. The Indian mining group's bonds yield 28% yet Howard Marks' fund deftly handled problems in China and leads a growing band of lenders eyeing high returns as rates bite in the US.
Indian ports will test tycoons’ safe harbour 2 Jun 2023 Sajjan Jindal’s JSW is floating India’s second-largest commercial operator. It’s less profitable than Gautam Adani’s $20 bln business where auditor Deloitte is waving a flag. In a global industry with few listed giants, appetite for this small deal will deliver its own verdict.
India’s moment is obfuscated by its jobs deficit 30 May 2023 The country is establishing itself on the global investment map. In this Exchange podcast, author and ex-IMF director Ashoka Mody talks about why executives should look at India’s underemployment problem instead of focusing on its 7% GDP growth as they size-up the opportunity.
EU will go easy on Indian resale of Russian fuel 23 May 2023 Fuelled by imports from Moscow, oil products sales to Europe from refiners including Reliance and Nayara have nearly doubled to $15 bln. The trend shows anti-Russian sanctions are not watertight. Yet, risks of an energy inflation revival make a European Union ban a tough call.
Tesla pushes limits of India’s electric-car dreams 18 May 2023 Elon Musk hopes to make and sell cars in the country. Giving up demands for import tax breaks and building a factory at scale makes sense if his $550 bln company is a market-maker as it was in China. Tesla would need to follow Apple’s roadmap and engineer a new export hub too.
Gautam Adani’s fundraisings offer multiple tests 16 May 2023 His companies are preparing to tap capital markets for some $3 bln, three months after a short attack succeeded in obliterating $120 bln and 50% off his group’s value. It will test the Indian conglomerate’s reputation, his attitude to public equity, and the besieged regulator.
Ambani’s finance listing will measure disruption 11 May 2023 The fledgling venture mostly comprises a 6% stake in $200 bln parent Reliance. Yet it may be floated as soon as September. It’s easier to spin out than the conglomerate’s digital and retail businesses. How it’s valued will signal whether investors reckon he can shake up lending.
Geopolitics is shrinking India’s risk premium 9 May 2023 Indian tycoons and financiers are sitting back as the titans of global business come to them. The country’s growing importance as a potential alternative investment destination to China shifts the focus away from the challenges of doing business, and onto what it can offer.