Qatar quarrel shows limit of its sovereign wealth 6 Jun 2017 The emirate’s $300 bln-plus fund has snapped up landmark buildings and stakes in companies like Barclays and Rosneft. The spree was meant to generate returns and diplomatic clout. But Qatar’s largesse has produced few allies to help it face down its more powerful neighbours.
Only Russia can make OPEC great again 23 May 2017 Moscow is giving the cartel more pricing clout. A mooted deal to extend output cuts and drain global crude stockpiles can only succeed with the continued support of the world’s biggest crude producer. With U.S. drillers recovering, it may be time to make the alliance permanent.
Two Irans go in different directions 22 May 2017 Reformist Hassan Rouhani was re-elected president in a landslide victory over hardliners. At the same time, U.S. President Trump placed the country firmly back into the “axis of evil”. The former ought to make Iran more investor-friendly, but it’s the latter that will shape its destiny.
OPEC’s oil price conundrum requires new bargain 9 May 2017 The cartel’s decision to restrict output has failed to revive prices. Extending the current deal – as Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has hinted – is not guaranteed to drain stockpiles. Making deeper cuts at the expense of market share would do the trick, but could be hard to agree.
Trump’s Syria strikes don’t justify crude worries 7 Apr 2017 Oil spiked after U.S. missiles rained on Syria. The fear isn’t that supplies will be disrupted but that Syrian ally Iran, which has been increasing its output of crude, will be hit with renewed sanctions. Even if that happens, other forces could keep markets well supplied.
Trump could shove Iran closer towards China 13 Jan 2017 Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson backs a review of Tehran's sanctions deal, echoing harsh words from his president-elect. China has already identified Iran's weak economy as a target for investment. Cementing the trend could chip away at U.S. dominance in the Gulf.
Turkey-Russia pact can survive Ankara flashpoint 20 Dec 2016 Moscow’s ambassador in the Turkish capital has been shot dead by a policeman seeking revenge for Aleppo. In 2015, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin were at loggerheads. Now mutual self-interest over Syria and a perceived common enemy mean the shock can be smoothed over.
Intesa’s Iran fine brands it sinful but also inept 16 Dec 2016 Italy's second-largest lender has been fined $235 mln by New York regulators for sanctions breaches. Rivals have paid more and Intesa Sanpaolo hasn't been criminally charged. Investors may find the bank's widespread incompetence at least as vexing as its intention to skirt rules.
Iran needs friends beyond Boeing 12 Dec 2016 The U.S. aircraft-maker's order for $16.6 bln of planes may force U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to choose between jobs and his tough stance on the Islamic Republic. Iran is in a weak position. It can help itself a bit, starting by rebuilding bridges with near neighbours.
OPEC resolve is strong enough to turbo-charge oil 30 Nov 2016 The cartel’s deal to cut crude output for the first time since 2008 ends its two-year-old policy of putting market share before higher prices. This may be self-defeating if shale production rebounds. But OPEC unity is convincing enough for oil to extend and sustain gains.
U.S. gives investors final excuse to swerve Iran 9 Nov 2016 It’s assumed President-elect Donald Trump wants to unpick a “disastrous” deal lifting nuclear sanctions on Tehran. The curbs were only lifted in January, and the risk of dealing with the proscribed Revolutionary Guard already means foreign firms are wary. Trump settles the issue.
Iran’s upper hand in OPEC could be fleeting 28 Sep 2016 The Islamic Republic's resistance to an oil deal leaves its rival Saudi Arabia stuck with low prices. Yet that is pushing Riyadh to launch necessary economic reforms, which should make the kingdom more competitive. Iran, despite its current rapid growth, risks falling behind.
Orange takes calculated risk in Iran 1 Sep 2016 The French telco is set to invest in the Islamic Republic. Post-sanctions Iran remains too risky for banks, given the danger of financing the still-proscribed Revolutionary Guards. Orange seems to be betting its experience in other hotspots will help it manage any conflicts.
Libya is the fly in OPEC’s ointment 31 Aug 2016 Whether the cartel can push up oil prices depends on Tripoli. Libya’s production is small but unpredictable. Include the war-torn country in any output cap, and other OPEC members may end up forced to produce less. Ignore it, and efforts to rein in production could be wasted.
Review: Iran cyber hack opened a Pandora’s box 29 Jul 2016 The documentary "Zero Days" takes a thriller-style look at the unprecedented attack on the country's nuclear facilities using the Stuxnet virus. It shows the lack of norms in this new kind of war. What’s left unexplored is how companies have become fair game in cyber battles.
Boeing and Airbus could use Obama’s help on Iran 11 Jul 2016 The U.S. Congress wants to block the sale of about 200 planes to Iran Air. Easing sanctions on Tehran after the nuclear deal made transactions like this doable. Firms have been encouraged to open their doors. But they aren't getting enough cover from the White House once they do.
Bahrain tips Middle East’s delicate balance 21 Jun 2016 Stripping citizenship from the spiritual leader of its majority Muslim Shi’ite population will inflame ethnic tensions in the tiny archipelago that’s home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet. The real story is the tension between its neighbours, Iran and Saudi. Bahrain has become a troubling proxy.
OPEC’s biggest quota threat is Iraq, not Iran 10 Jun 2016 At some point, the cartel may try to cut production to prop up oil prices. To date, investors have focused on the risk of a post-sanctions Iran upending this by hiking output. Instead, the big risk is that Iraq, which has opened its spigots since 2012, refuses to toe the line.
OPEC silence beats hollow pledges 2 Jun 2016 Oil producers’ failure to agree on a policy to curb supply is not all bad. A deal would have boosted prices in the short term but been hard to enforce given Saudi-Iran tensions. The already-weak cartel can ill afford the reputational damage of promising more than it can deliver.
OPEC has an oily blind spot over Brexit 2 Jun 2016 Britain leaving the EU would present the cartel with a tricky demand problem. Brexit could slow economic growth in Europe and reduce consumption of crude in the world’s third-largest market for fuel. If that happens OPEC may have to cut output, or risk prices falling again.