Telecom tycoon ensnared by his hefty debt machine 18 Apr 2024 Patrick Drahi built the ocean-spanning Altice empire on the back of aggressive dealmaking and $60 bln of borrowing. The bill is coming due with interest rates elevated. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss what comes next as bondholders get restless.
Oil traders make risky bet on calm in Middle East 15 Apr 2024 Crude prices fell after Iran attacked Israel, probably because the Islamic Republic telegraphed its strikes in advance. Still, the unprecedented move may elicit an Israeli response. With oil supplies tightening, regional tensions and prices could yet reset at a higher level.
Middle East is complicating West’s grand strategy 15 Apr 2024 The U.S. and its allies wanted to focus on Russia and China. But the Gaza war - and now a conflict between Iran and Israel - is distracting them. It has also undermined support from poorer nations and boosted Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.
Europe risks falling into Levant’s powder keg 20 Feb 2024 War in Gaza is worsening already dire economic conditions in Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Western aid is unlikely to solve their deep problems. Despite efforts to outsource its migration issues, the European Union may find some displaced by a protracted conflict reach its borders.
Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost 16 Feb 2024 Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.
Oil investors are adrift in Red Sea rip currents 9 Feb 2024 Crude prices at around $80 a barrel are lower than in early October despite conflict in Gaza, attacks on shipping vessels off Yemen, and US-Iran tensions. That reflects expectations of weak demand and ample supply, underpinned by lax sanctions. All three could soon change.
Red Sea delays are no panacea for European EVs 5 Feb 2024 Suez Canal blockages mean Chinese electric vehicles take longer to get to Europe. But these don’t look bad enough to close the price gap with EU rivals. The most likely upshot is a slower rate of domestic EV adoption, rather than a change in the competitive pecking order.
Shipping giants can withstand Red Sea crisis 30 Jan 2024 Houthi attacks near the Suez Canal are slowing global trade. In this Exchange podcast, Zvi Schreiber, CEO of shipping platform Freightos, discusses how the sector was caught by surprise, but excess container ships and more air cargo capacity are helping limit the immediate pain.
Red Sea oil tension may revive Russia-Saudi spat 22 Jan 2024 Exchanges of fire between Yemen’s Houthis and the US military have hiked costs for Moscow to ship oil via the Suez Canal to China and India. One upshot could be Russia loses market share to Saudi Arabia. That may reopen the sort of tensions that led to the duo’s 2020 price war.
Prolonged Red Sea attacks can hurt global economy 11 Jan 2024 Freight costs are soaring as militants target ships on a crucial trade route. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate how inflation could rise and which companies could suffer if the tensions aren’t resolved soon.
Global polycrisis could yet have not-so-bad ending 8 Jan 2024 From war in Gaza and Ukraine to superpower rivalry, climate change and slow growth, there is a lot of danger in the world. The possible return of Donald Trump as US President is another risk. But there are more optimistic scenarios - and some silver linings in pessimistic ones.
Red Sea windfall will only delay shippers’ pain 4 Jan 2024 Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have gained some $18 bln in market value, as militant attacks shut the Suez Canal and caused freight rates to soar. Yet investor hopes for a lasting boost may be disappointed. And carriers will still face a reckoning from a weak economy and idle fleets.
Intel becomes proxy for Biden’s America Inc 27 Dec 2023 The chip giant’s $3.2 bln subsidy to build a plant in Israel follows similar outlays from the USA and Germany. The investment loop is a unique boon to shareholders: President Biden wants to build an allied semiconductor supply chain to fend off China; he must use Intel to do so.
New Red Sea blockage may be both longer and milder 19 Dec 2023 Militant attacks have forced groups from Maersk to BP to avoid the conduit for over 10% of world trade. Re-routing round Africa will hike fuel costs and could last six months. Yet weaker global demand relative to a six-day 2021 stoppage may limit the wider economic fallout.
Saudi’s best foreign investment will be in Gaza 19 Dec 2023 The kingdom is known for flashy punts on Western sports and blue chips. But its real need is foreign cash to help diversify away from oil. If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were to use Saudi money to help Palestinians rebuild post-war, US goodwill may prompt an FDI spike.
Labour is weak link in Israeli economic defences 14 Nov 2023 The Middle Eastern country has withstood the financial pain of a war with Hamas, William Wechsler at the US think tank the Atlantic Council says in this Exchange podcast. But as the conflict continues, an increasing labour shortage will pile pressure on the economy.
Israel’s war is a risk and opportunity for Saudi 31 Oct 2023 Hamas’s attacks complicate Mohammed bin Salman’s aim to build relations with the Israeli state, Gulf expert Kristian Coates Ulrichsen says in this Exchange podcast. But if the Saudi crown prince can use his leverage to help Palestinians, it may help his image at home and abroad.
Israel war tests US appeal to global swing states 30 Oct 2023 US power in part hangs on its claim to pursue a principles-based foreign policy. The Gaza conflict has led to accusations of double standards. If these stick, the United States’ attempts to woo developing countries as part of its new Cold War with China could suffer.
China’s Middle East agenda gets harder to manage 23 Oct 2023 The country’s private refineries have been snapping up over 90% of Iran’s cheap crude exports. Tighter US sanctions in the face of the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas could turn these customers away. That would cut across Chinese efforts to grow influence in the region.
Wall Street cues a lesson in Ivory Tower finance 20 Oct 2023 Billionaires Marc Rowan and Bill Ackman are angry about Middle East positions taken by their alma maters, UPenn and Harvard. The backlash inadvertently spotlights the power big donors wield on campus. It’s a chance to revisit the business model and make college a freer market.