Kazakhstan

Kazakh oligarch shakeup may give foreigners a shot

12 Jan 2022

President Tokayev needs to consolidate power after unrest and raise cash to placate his citizens. Billionaires allied to his predecessor are obvious targets. Since he lacks a go-to gang to take over mining assets, he may favour gradual redistribution and more external investment.

Pricey oil gives Kazakh investors emergency cover

7 Jan 2022

Russia sent troops to quash a revolt in its neighbour. Even if President Tokayev keeps his job, energy majors like Chevron and Shell will fear fallout from the unrest. With the state reaping the rewards of oil at $80 a barrel, there’s less incentive to renegotiate their terms.

Kazakh gas revolt is timely canary in the coalmine

5 Jan 2022

The central Asian state’s government has fallen after it removed a price cap on liquefied petroleum gas. Kazakhs have a host of local grievances other than energy costs. But commodity spikes will also cause fireworks in European states unless politicians cushion the blow.

Kaz Minerals minorities should quit while ahead

4 Feb 2021

The copper miner’s two biggest investors have increased their takeover bid to 3.7 bln pounds. The new offer is still not exactly a knockout, but Kaz Minerals warrants a discount given much of its value is tied up in one risky project. Minorities should take what’s on the table.

Stingy copper buyout may tarnish Kazakh listings

17 Nov 2020

Two shareholders of 3 bln pound miner Kaz Minerals want to take it private. The offer looks low and premature, given uncertainty over the prospects of the Eurasian group’s biggest asset. An opportunistic takeover may further dent London’s appetite for companies from the region.

Kazakh copper takeover looks opportunistic

28 Oct 2020

Kaz Minerals’ chairman and its biggest shareholder are offering 3 bln pounds for the London-listed miner. It’s a tiny 12% premium and selling now would mean missing out on the gains from a battery-powered boom. But with little hope for a rival deal, investors may still accept it.

Kazakhs jump the gun with $6.5 bln fintech IPO

8 Oct 2020

CEO Mikheil Lomtadze is having a second go at floating Kaspi.kz, after pulling a listing last year. Uncertainty over bad debt and the economic effects of Covid-19 may scupper an otherwise reasonable valuation. Selling shareholders might get a better price in a year.

Kazakh IPO fail is only partly about WeWork

8 Oct 2019

Kaspi.kz postponed its $5 bln float blaming markets spooked by the U.S. group’s own pulled listing. But the firm is more a bundle of payments and banking pursuits than a fintech star. Add Kazakhstan’s status as a risky emerging market and there was lots not to like.

Kazakh fintech IPO complicated by local quirks

16 Sep 2019

Kaspi.kz combines a bank, a payments business, and an e-commerce marketplace. Its upcoming London listing invites flattering comparisons with established online players. But the peculiarities of the country’s digital economy mean it may struggle to command similar valuations.

Revamped ENRC should set its sights low

8 Mar 2018

The colourful Kazakh miner, renamed ERG after it delisted under a cloud in 2013, is testing a recovering commodities market. A fresh IPO sounds a non-starter, but selling a stake in one of its operations could fly. If so, it would help the group trim almost $6 bln of debt.

Big Oil can learn from $50 bln Kazakh fiasco

21 May 2014

The oil majors running the Kashagan field may have to wait until 2016 before any black gold flows again. That’ll be a decade late and five times over budget. The debacle shows the drawback of too many partners involved in the same project under tough climate conditions.

Kazakhstan succumbs to allure of currency wars

11 Feb 2014

The oil-rich nation devalued the tenge by nearly a fifth. It makes sense: there’s no reason to use up currency reserves to resist a move that has many advantages and few drawbacks. Stronger countries than Kazakhstan would struggle to avoid the global game of beggar-thy-neighbour.

Kazakh deal shows China’s enduring thirst for oil

9 Sep 2013

Buying into the Kashagan oilfield gives China’s national oil producer access to one of the world’s last great finds. The $5 bln cost of the stake - plus $3 bln to help Kazakhstan fund a tricky expansion - shows that, for China, resources are still scarcer than capital.

Resistance to Kazakh mining stitch-up looks futile

24 Jun 2013

ENRC minority holders are in a bad place, now the Kazakhmys board has accepted the low-ball bid from oligarchs and government. Unless Kazakhmys shareholders overrule their board, any ENRC holdouts could end up with unlisted, illiquid shares. Better to admit defeat and cut losses.

ENRC board has reputation leverage

29 May 2013

Kazakhmys, ENRC’s 26 pct owner, may be less fussed than other minority shareholders about getting a high price out of the miner’s founding oligarchs. But Kazakhmys won’t necessarily embrace a low offer that ENRC’s independent board has snubbed. Reputational cover is valuable.

ENRC board needs to summon its poker skills

9 May 2013

The hapless miner’s independent directors hold a weak hand. But they shouldn’t just fold if ENRC’s dominant shareholders team up to make a low-ball bid for the company. There are risks to losing a deal. Still, there is a floor to a recommendable offer.

ENRC is problem-free, by some standards

1 May 2013

Yes, it was a mistake for the London Stock Exchange to give the governance-challenged Kazakh miner its seal of approval. But the murky dealings at Russia’s Surgutneftegas make ENRC look like a model of transparency. And a few bad apples don’t drag down the whole London market.

Kazakh miner nears endgame with chairman’s exit

23 Apr 2013

The hapless 3.8 bln-pound ENRC is losing its board boss and two directors. That further dents its reputation and value. The onus is now on the board to wring a decent price from the founders - if a mooted buyout appears. If no bid arrives, ENRC has a huge repair job to do.

This time the ENRC board has to show real mettle

19 Apr 2013

A possible bid led by one or more of the troubled Kazakh miner’s dominant shareholders could offer minorities a welcome exit. But there’s a serious information gap to cross. The cleanest way for the board to secure a robust asset valuation is to get an auction going.

Why buy ENRC if its assets may soon be on the slab?

11 Apr 2013

The London-listed Kazakh miner is a regular bid-talk target. But buying it makes little sense if its assets can be bought later for less. Reports that Chairman Mehmet Dalman has threatened to resign may be wide of the mark. But ENRC has yet to present a convincing revival plan.