OPEC readies knife for oil demand-slump gunfight 3 Mar 2020 The cartel and its Russian allies are set to curb crude supply again, to counter a virus-induced price fall. But even a 1 mln barrels per day cut may not do the job. To hike prices, OPEC needs Russia to prove helpful, Libya to stay troubled, and the coronavirus to not get worse.
Italy’s new cabinet dials up protectionist signal 8 Jun 2018 Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government declared a listed telco in which Libya has long been the top investor a strategic asset, hitting shares. Retelit says it can handle the state oversight. But it sends a warning to foreigners seeking to buy Italian infrastructure.
Legal woes could impair SocGen’s 2020 vision 29 Mar 2018 The French lender says it is close to settling with U.S. regulators over investigations relating to Libya and Libor. A sanctions-busting probe could pose a sterner test, though. Any fine above 1.8 bln euros could threaten SocGen’s capital target – and put pressure on dividends.
French banks’ foreign strength cuts both ways 4 May 2017 Strong first-quarter growth in BNP Paribas and SocGen’s foreign markets offset weaker showings at home. Still, SocGen’s 963 mln euro Libyan settlement shows how overseas adventures can go awry. And if Sunday’s election delivers a surprise, French banks face redenomination risk.
OPEC’s solidarity points to longer production cuts 14 Feb 2017 The cartel has taken two steps forward and one step back. Compliance with output cuts is narrowing the gap between supply and demand, but it is also encouraging U.S. producers to drill more wells. Sustained higher prices may require even more restraint to keep the market balanced.
Goldman’s Libya win still a defeat for finance 14 Oct 2016 The Wall Street bank has won a court case in which a Libyan oil fund sought repayment of $1.2 bln for derivative losses. Goldman Sachs may not have mistreated clients. But further disclosure of the unsavoury ways bankers do business does little for finance’s troubled image.
Libya is the fly in OPEC’s ointment 31 Aug 2016 Whether the cartel can push up oil prices depends on Tripoli. Libya’s production is small but unpredictable. Include the war-torn country in any output cap, and other OPEC members may end up forced to produce less. Ignore it, and efforts to rein in production could be wasted.
Failed petrostates threatened by new oil bounty 20 Sep 2013 Oil majors are becoming less tolerant of the political risks and corruption they’ve coped with in the past. That’s bad news for the likes of Nigeria or violence-prone Libya. With safer crude on offer in the U.S. and elsewhere, troubled states risk an exodus of expertise.
Arab Spring makes region $225 bln poorer 15 Jan 2013 Ousting dictators doesn’t come cheap. In 2010, the IMF forecast total 2011-2015 GDP in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia at $2.2 trn. That figure is now 10 pct lower. The hope is that less wealth will be more evenly spread. The fear is that new governments will be less growth-friendly.
Embassy attacks underline Mid-East transition risk 17 Sep 2012 Arab governments eventually condemned the violence, but the U.S. embassy attacks highlight their vulnerability to radical minorities. This isn’t new in the Middle East, but investors will weigh the risk more heavily when considering opportunities in the Arab spring economies.
Libyan killings put America in diplomatic Catch-22 12 Sep 2012 The death of the U.S. ambassador and three others may dampen appetite for intervention and will raise questions about aid to the wider region. Yet the West has a big stake in supporting the transition from dictatorship to peaceful democracy, even if the ride is bumpy.
Latam’s bad oil policies laid bare across an ocean 13 Aug 2012 Despite some tough regimes and far smaller reserves, Africa is set to overtake Latin America’s crude output this year. The unlikely reversal reflects investor-friendly approaches in the likes of Angola. It’s also the clearest sign yet of how misguided the Latin region’s course is.
East Libya tempted by oil-fuelled breakaway 20 Mar 2012 The push for federalism in the east may be a bargaining chip to ensure equality. But if taken further, it could lead to a breakup with major consequences for the country’s oil trade. Neither Iraq nor the UAE provide a useful model for a more federal state.
Gaddafi death could add momentum to Arab Spring 20 Oct 2011 The end of the former dictator allows Libya to move towards elections alongside Tunisia and Egypt. Oil wealth and a lack of compromised institutions arguably give Tripoli an easier start. Arab dictators had little love for Gaddafi, but his demise ratchets up the pressure.
Libya should adopt oil-wealth transparency 5 Sep 2011 The country’s new leaders must decide how to manage Libya’s oil wealth after funding reconstruction. Opaque handouts might be a tempting way to win tribal loyalties. But it would be better to copy oil-rich Norway and create a transparent and accountable sovereign fund.
Big oil faces big unknowns in Libya 24 Aug 2011 With Brent crude at more than $100 per barrel, foreign entities have a strong incentive to restart production as soon as security is ensured. But Libya’s new rulers may want to reshuffle the cards. Even once the fighting stops, oil companies should expect a bumpy ride.
End game in Libya could herald oil slump 22 Aug 2011 The rebel push into Tripoli came sooner than expected. Libyan oil exports should follow suit. The possibility of regional unrest remains. But global growth concerns, and IEA and Saudi moves to make up for the disruption, could turn tight markets into oversupplied ones.