Philips’ failed deal puts Chinese bids in the dark 22 Jan 2016 The Dutch firm’s sale of 80 pct of its specialty lighting arm to a Chinese fund has failed on U.S. security fears. Philips’ Lumileds unit has tech smarts and stateside operations, but this looks like regulatory overreach. Pending Chinese bids for hardware now seem less certain.
Shell/BG investors can ignore pre-match nerves 20 Jan 2016 The Anglo-Dutch oil major’s Q4 earnings will fall at least 42 percent - weaker than expected. BG had some bright spots, bolstering Shell’s case to buy its smaller rival. Low oil prices give the $47 bln tie-up an inauspicious start, but the deal probably will still go through.
Shell/BG optimism outweighs oil pessimism 15 Jan 2016 If oil languishes at $30, then Shell’s bid for BG probably destroys value. But if investors were that pessimistic, they wouldn’t be holding Shell shares. With the long-term strategic merits of the deal intact, it should still gain shareholder approval.
Aegon investor cheer more about cash than capital 13 Jan 2016 The Dutch insurer has divulged a higher-than-feared position under Solvency II capital reforms. A strong showing is vital, but the real point is that it means Aegon can give clarity on dividends. The ability to make payouts is becoming the de-facto sign of insurers’ health.
Delta Lloyd waves white flag on insurer capital 30 Nov 2015 The Dutch insurer is raising capital equivalent to over half its market value to prepare for new Solvency II rules. But it’s also ditching its own solvency model for a tougher version supplied by regulators. If peers follow suit, insurer capital would be much more simple.
ABN Amro IPO merits discount for ugly structure 10 Nov 2015 The Dutch state is hawking up to 23 pct of its erstwhile problem child, valuing the bank at up to 18.8 bln euros. The price range seems attractive relative to listed peers. But a markdown is warranted given an anti-takeover provision that could rescind investors’ voting rights.
High-return, low-pay ING offers model for peers 4 Nov 2015 The local regulator prevents the Dutch bank paying bonuses over 20 pct of salary. ING still makes a 12 pct return on equity. It isn’t an investment bank, and isn’t immune to regulatory attack. But its success implies ropier rivals should change pay policies - or their strategies.
Cheap oil no deterrent to Shell-BG deal 3 Nov 2015 The Anglo-Dutch major says its bid for BG Group still works at mid-$60s oil thanks to higher expected synergies. Cheaper oil means BG is probably worth less too, but cost savings will help. The deal needs a recovery in oil prices sooner rather than later for it to work.
Shell throws kitchen sink at low oil 29 Oct 2015 The Anglo-Dutch major’s quarterly results were scarred by a net charge of $7.9 billion. It’s painful, and the comparison with rival Total unflattering. Shell was able to cover dividends with cashflow in the last year, but the balancing act is only going to get more difficult.
Shell faces tough call on what to cut next 28 Oct 2015 Shelving a high-cost Canadian oil sands project and taking a $2 bln writedown is smart amid lower crude prices. It is getting harder for the group to sift the wheat from the chaff in terms of bankable projects, but if it wants to safeguard its dividend, it has little choice.
Heineken strength justifies mega-merger abstinence 28 Oct 2015 The Dutch brewer’s quarterly sales increased 8 pct year-on-year. That’s better than latest figures from SABMiller and AB InBev. Carlsberg dropped 4 pct last quarter. While Heineken’s three global peers are chasing growth through change, the green-bottle brewer is sitting pretty.
Starbucks and Fiat dragged along in fair tax tide 21 Oct 2015 The European Commission’s classification of corporate tax favours as unfair state aid makes sense, even if the two companies broke no laws. Corporate treasurers should note the trend. Following bank tax secrecy, corporate tax havens are very gradually heading for extinction.
Unilever’s growth could shrink in the wash 15 Oct 2015 The Anglo-Dutch soap and soup company grew sales nearly 10 pct in Q3. That’s unexpectedly good. It doesn’t, though, mean the emerging markets for which Unilever is a bellwether are recovering. Leave aside currency moves and hot demand for ice cream, and the outlook is lukewarm.
Tech sector softness is etched in ASML’s slowdown 14 Oct 2015 The $38 bln Dutch microchip-printer maker has said Q4 revenue will be 10 pct below the previous quarter. Weaker demand in China and elsewhere is affecting the entire semiconductor industry but investment spending is being curbed sector-wide. ASML should still hit longer-term targets.
SABMiller’s best defence: debt and deliverability 8 Oct 2015 The Peroni brewer has leverage in the face of AB InBev’s aggressive $100 bln bid approach. It could gear itself up instead of letting the suitor take the spoils. It is also hard to see how the bidder could deliver value from SAB’s various partnerships without the board on side.
Shell’s Arctic retreat better late than never 28 Sep 2015 The Anglo-Dutch major faces a write-off of up to $4.1 bln after ditching oil and gas exploration in Alaska. Environmentalists will be happy. But if the group wants to bed down BG and ride out low oil prices, investors should cheer the demise of costly and brand-dilutive forays.
Heineken crafts telling move away from global beer 9 Sep 2015 The Dutch beer giant has bought into a Californian brewer of pale ale. The undisclosed financials will be small in the context of this 40 bln euro company. But strategically it is a big deal. Heineken is accepting it needs more than fizzy beer in green bottles.
Shell-BG merger still works with cheap oil 27 Aug 2015 The tumbling oil price has raised fears that Shell shareholders might balk at the $70 billion the Anglo-Dutch energy group agreed to pay for smaller rival BG. While the premium may now look bigger, so should the cost savings, even now that black gold has lost its shine.
ABN Amro’s IPO could prove sweetly timed 21 Aug 2015 The Dutch bank’s second-quarter earnings doubled to 600 mln euros, justifying state zeal for a reprivatisation. ABN’s first sale may end up a third below the government’s in-price, like the UK’s selloff of RBS. But with the domestic economy firing, pressing ahead makes sense.
Carlsberg’s new CEO sends for the stomach pump 19 Aug 2015 The Danish brewer’s new boss Cees ‘t Hart has slashed forecast operating profit. Missed cost savings, bad weather and over-exposure to Ukraine and Russia ensure a lengthy hangover. With a new strategy not due until 2016, this looks like a sensible attempt to purge the bad news.