Nigeria

Africa growth outlook puts democrats on back foot

3 July 2019

Ballooning populations mean per capita wealth is falling in key democracies Nigeria and South Africa. That’s a recipe for trouble. Alongside a stronger performance by autocratic Egypt, it also makes worrying reading for those who believe a democratic Africa is a more stable one.

Airtel debt diet prepares it for Africa price war

28 May 2019

The Indian telecom giant is floating 25% of its African arm in London to help cut debt. The continent’s telecom market is growing quickly but competition is fierce. With less debt Airtel will be better positioned to fight back.

MTN’s cut-price Nigerian float has silver linings

16 May 2019

The South African telecom group is listing its Nigerian unit for $5 bln. That looks cheap, but the move chimes with the government’s aim to develop local markets, and may ease a tax dispute. Exposing local shareholders to Abuja’s whims might even make it more predictable.

Jumia to test faith in the rare African unicorn

27 March 2019

The e-commerce startup from Rocket Internet is hoping for a $1.4 bln price tag when it goes public in New York. Sales are galloping but so are losses. That’s a punchy valuation given the poorest continent’s social and political problems – unless Alibaba or Amazon are the buyers.

Nigeria votes for another four years of drift

27 February 2019

Re-elected President Muhammadu Buhari faces a daunting to-do list. His first term suggests most of it will stay undone. Easing the state’s grip on the currency and oil sector could revive growth. That the former general’s main rival backed such reforms means neither is likely.

Nigeria challenger is lesser of two outmoded evils

15 February 2019

Voters in Africa’s most populous nation must choose between an ageing ex-military ruler and old-school political tycoon. Both are four times the country’s median age. Challenger Atiku Abubakar’s talk of relaxing the state’s economic grip at least has a whiff of the 21st century.

Thruppence: Who wins by sponsoring UK book prize?

29 January 2019

Man Group has ended its support for the UK’s prestigious Booker award. The hedge fund decided there were worthier recipients of its 1.6 mln pound annual cheque. Luckily for aspiring authors, Breakingviews columnists have a handy shortlist of those who could step into the breach.

Carlyle’s Nigerian banking bet is down but not out

18 December 2018

The U.S. private-equity firm’s stake in Diamond Bank is worth only a fraction of what it paid after the ailing Lagos-based firm agreed to sell itself to Access Bank. A likely rights issue may worsen the financial pain. Carlyle's consolation is a slice of Nigeria’s biggest lender.

MTN’s $8 bln Nigeria spat requires Goldilocks fix

26 November 2018

The African phone giant is close to ending a row with the West African nation over dividends. A face-saving deal will repair ties in its biggest market. After protesting its innocence, a reported $800 mln settlement looks excessive. But too little will keep MTN in Abuja’s sights.

Nigeria bank reform offers olive branch for MTN

19 October 2018

The continent’s most populous nation has invited telecom groups to launch mobile payment services. South African operator MTN could be a big winner. The prospect of a lucrative new market gives it a good reason to end its $10 billion dividend and tax feud with the government.

Bad time for Nigeria to bash foreign investors

20 September 2018

Outsiders pumped $15 bln into the African country’s financial markets in the last year, helping its oil-dependent economy. Though crude receipts are healthy, emerging market nerves are curbing appetite for its debt. High-profile attacks on HSBC and telecom group MTN won’t help.

Prem Watsa’s Africa punt may avoid Greek tragedy

5 September 2018

The Canadian investor owns 41 pct of African bank Atlas Mara. Given Bob Diamond’s outfit just made a half-year operating loss, the risk is a re-run of Watsa’s awry Greek bank bet. Still, stabilising commodity prices means there’s more chance Watsa has bought in at the bottom.

Nigerian problems cast doubt over MTN payout

30 August 2018

The country’s central bank says the mobile phone group’s local unit illegally paid $8.1 bln to its South African parent. Though MTN denies wrongdoing, its shares are down more than a fifth. Blocked payments from its most lucrative market would threaten MTN’s punchy dividend plan.

UK-Africa trade is tiny plaster for Brexit wounds

28 August 2018

Prime Minister Theresa May hopes deeper ties with the continent will help cushion the blow of leaving the EU. But UK trade with sub-Saharan Africa is less than 3 pct of what it exchanges with Europe. With Nigeria and South Africa in the doldrums, prospects for growth look slim.

Nigeria’s FX reserve fetish is bad for growth

30 April 2018

President Muhammadu Buhari is vaunting a rapid rise in foreign exchange reserves. A decent war chest is worth having in case the naira needs defending. But accumulating a vast pile of dollars will deprive the economy of the hard currency it needs to keep growing and create jobs.

Heineken’s number two status brings marginal costs

12 February 2018

The Dutch brewer is one of the few global groups still increasing beer volumes. However, acquisitions will weigh on operating margins in 2018. Heineken needs to invest in its new Brazilian brands to take on market leader AB Inbev. That limits the scope for boosting profitability.

The Exchange: Marcus Ruiz Evans

8 December 2017

The president of Yes California leads a campaign arguing that the Golden State should become an independent country – an idea increasingly referred to as Calexit. He explains why secession would be good for the state’s economy and how he’ll get the rest of the nation to buy in.

Iran’s upper hand in OPEC could be fleeting

28 September 2016

The Islamic Republic's resistance to an oil deal leaves its rival Saudi Arabia stuck with low prices. Yet that is pushing Riyadh to launch necessary economic reforms, which should make the kingdom more competitive. Iran, despite its current rapid growth, risks falling behind.

Emerging market fans get South Africa wake-up call

25 August 2016

The rand has slumped since Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan was ordered to report to a special police unit. Falling stocks and bonds are a timely reality check for money managers who have been lured back to emerging markets. An indiscriminate hunt for yield generally ends badly.

LafargeHolcim mega-merger gets to first base

5 August 2016

The world's largest cement group has reaffirmed EBITDA guidance for this year. LafargeHolcim's first year has been fraught, but synergies are coming through. Still, given the union's troubled markets, the real challenge is sustainable topline growth.