LafargeHolcim mega-merger gets to first base 5 Aug 2016 The world's largest cement group has reaffirmed EBITDA guidance for this year. LafargeHolcim's first year has been fraught, but synergies are coming through. Still, given the union's troubled markets, the real challenge is sustainable topline growth.
Nigeria’s problems defy central bank fixes 28 Jul 2016 A hefty rate hike was a fair response to a slump in the naira that’s fuelling inflation. Yet this is unlikely to lure much foreign money back to Africa’s biggest economy. Its political, trade, and fiscal misfortunes are too pernicious for even yield-starved investors to overlook.
UK’s own corruption safeguards less than fantastic 11 May 2016 The prime minister’s description of Nigeria and Afghanistan as “fantastically corrupt” has some basis in global graft indices. And Britain talks a good game on anti-corruption. But its recent adoption of US-style “deferred prosecution agreements” suggests no room for complacency.
Oil flirting with the $20s gives OPEC cause to cut 12 Jan 2016 That bleak outlook for oil is gaining traction among analysts. Such bearish predictions may prove correct unless bickering OPEC puts aside its differences and agrees to deep cuts. But for that to happen, Russia and other producers outside the cartel will have to play ball.
Nigeria’s democratic change is a real positive 1 Apr 2015 Africa’s biggest economy is set for its first peaceful transfer of power. Election winner Muhammadu Buhari, a 1980s junta leader, will find ruling harder now. Meaningful reform will take years. Still, better governance is good news for the populace and outside investors alike.
Current account is key Africa factor in 2015 2 Jan 2015 Rapid African growth is likely to continue. But too much spending and borrowing has led many countries into trade deficits. As lenders become more discriminating, the state of the balance of payments, along with freedom from Ebola, will become keys to continued growth.
Fear is key to Ebola’s economic contagion 18 Aug 2014 The virus ravaging parts of Africa has yet to spread elsewhere. Yet Asia’s SARS crisis in 2003 showed how changes to behaviour can hurt growth and productivity more than an actual disease. Ebola seems harder to catch, but more deadly. That could make for a more pronounced effect.
Review: Hustling helps Africa’s partial success 17 Apr 2014 Dayo Olopade’s “The Bright Continent” describes “kanju,” the hustling, striving and rule-breaking that make modern Africa work. The canny invisible hand can outwit the dead hand of corrupt bureaucracy. Sadly kanju makes the continent a tough place to do fully organized business.
Damn statisticians with at least faint praise 8 Apr 2014 It’s easy to mock belated number nerd discoveries, for example that British savings and Nigerian GDP missed by almost a factor of two. Blushing and correcting beats persisting in error. Better still is to ignore the spurious precision of many calculations in the first place.
Nigeria’s oil scandal may yet help it emerge 20 Feb 2014 President Jonathan suspended the central bank chief after he pointed a finger at the state oil company. Local markets roiled, but Nigeria’s non-petroleum economy is actually growing smartly. With any luck, more attention on corruption will curb one of the country’s biggest drags.
Western debt magic is poison for Africa 24 Dec 2013 A poor continent with limited savings is hugely vulnerable to a credit crunch. Africa desperately needs capital, but only the sort that can’t easily leave. Speculative investors and yield-hunters will eventually do more harm than good. There’s a caution here for Bob Diamond.
Failed petrostates threatened by new oil bounty 20 Sep 2013 Oil majors are becoming less tolerant of the political risks and corruption they’ve coped with in the past. That’s bad news for the likes of Nigeria or violence-prone Libya. With safer crude on offer in the U.S. and elsewhere, troubled states risk an exodus of expertise.
Jonathan needs good luck to keep Nigeria moving 23 May 2013 The budget is under control, bad banks are being sold, the sovereign wealth fund opens soon and growth is over 6 pct. But a rebellion could hinder President Goodluck Jonathan’s progress. Combining careful anti-insurgent activity with solid economic management is a tall order.
Nigeria’s oil mess hides solid African growth bet 8 Feb 2013 The state oil company is fighting the government, and production has stagnated. But at long last Nigeria’s non-oil economy, led by telecoms and construction and perhaps worth $200 bln, is growing fast enough to compensate, and then some. It’s a frontier market worth a close look.
Nigerian billionaire’s LSE-quote plan is watershed 5 Apr 2012 A mooted London listing for Aliko Dangote’s $11 bln cement group is a milestone for Nigeria and for Africa. The resource-rich continent has seen false starts before, and Dangote’s venture isn’t without risks. But a FTSE 100-sized Nigerian company gives cause for celebration.
Nigeria’s hopes may face quasi-Andean struggle 31 Jan 2012 After decades mired in corruption and poverty, the oil-rich nation now has better government. But violence could derail its economic progress. One parallel is Colombia, which suffered 50 years of stagnation before stability sparked growth. Nigeria’s leaders need quicker results.
Nigeria deals the dollar another blow 6 Sep 2011 The oil-rich African state will invest about $3 billion of its foreign reserves into China’s currency. High inflation and closed markets make the yuan a poor choice. Nigeria’s goal may be to secure investment flows: still, it is another sign of the dollar’s weakening influence.