Putin’s Russia will look more like North Korea 22 Dec 2022 The Kremlin leader will strengthen his hold over the ailing economy, from banking to industrials. Massive nationalisation, along with the end of U.S. and European investments, could soon be followed by strict capital controls. The complete closure of the Russian economy is next.
Viewsroom: Big trouble ahead 30 Apr 2020 Breakingviews columnist and founder Hugo Dixon discusses his column with Rob Cox on how taxpayer-funded bailouts are likely to encourage excessive risk-taking in the future and provoke new populist backlashes when the bills need to be paid. Also, where’s Kim Jong Un?
Kim Jong Un unnerves the world equally in absentia 29 Apr 2020 The North Korean leader is rumoured to be sick, comatose or dead due to heart problems at around 36. Ill or healthy, Kim has identified no successor, and an internal power struggle would destabilise the region. Investors should pray for his health now, and reformist heirs next.
Trump-Kim breakdown is blessing in disguise 28 Feb 2019 The U.S. president said talks ended abruptly without a nuclear deal because North Korea wanted sanctions lifted for too little in return. Seoul markets understandably shuddered. A pause, however, provides time to think through the effects of an economically stronger Pyongyang.
Homeplus shopping pain will resist Korean IPO cure 22 Feb 2019 Asian buyout firm MBK will list some of the hypermarket buildings it bought from Tesco. This $1.5 bln REIT should fly in yield-hungry Seoul. Yet the split could make it harder to sell the rest. Separating property and operating units was a boom-era trick that ended badly.
The Exchange: Italy’s almost premier 15 Jun 2018 Carlo Cottarelli talks about how he nearly led a caretaker government after President Sergio Mattarella last month rejected a euroskeptic finance minister put forward by the parties that won March elections. The former IMF economist has some advice for Italy’s new bosses.
Trump and Kim’s TV diplomacy lacks definition 12 Jun 2018 A meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korea’s leader was mostly for the cameras. "Denuclearization" remains a distant prospect. Still, engagement reduces the risk of ruinous conflict and might even pry open Pyongyang’s closed economy, benefiting neighbours.
Trump-Kim parley has a downside for Xi 11 Jun 2018 A breakthrough in Singapore between the mercurial U.S. and North Korean leaders would be an economic win for Seoul and others in the region. China might even profit from the détente. President Xi Jinping also could lose negotiating leverage, though, as trade tensions escalate.
The Exchange: A Down Under take on Trump 6 Jun 2018 Former Australia Prime Minister Kevin Rudd gives the U.S. president some credit for his dealings with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. But he explains that Donald Trump’s protectionism has enraged China’s leaders and may play into the hands of the country’s own nationalists.
Kim Jong Un’s hollow promises better than nothing 27 Apr 2018 The North Korean leader met South Korea’s president, vowing to work towards a formal peace treaty and a nuclear-free peninsula. The latter seems unlikely. But even a diplomatic thaw is good for South Korean business – and will reduce the tail risk of a catastrophic conflict.
Kim Jong Un’s change of heart might be for real 28 Mar 2018 The despot is acting suspiciously nice, mending fences with Seoul and Beijing and warming to U.S. President Trump. This could be another ruse to lift sanctions. Yet there are reasons to believe a more secure Kim is ready to start turning North Korea into a more normal country.
Guest view: Chinese oil can fuel North Korea talks 16 Oct 2017 Nothing will concentrate the minds of North Korean leaders more than a Chinese oil embargo, argues William Rhodes, a former Citigroup executive and co-chair of the G30’s steering committee on bank culture and governance.
Diplomatic fog blinds China and U.S. over N. Korea 22 Sep 2017 Economic curbs are squeezing North Korea but the volley of test missiles hasn't slowed. Trump and Xi have misread the situation, and each other. Kim Jong Un is unimpressed by half-hearted sanctions; they strengthen him domestically. Time to price in the risk of real violence.
Pyongyang nudges Seoul onto Trump’s bad-boy list 15 Aug 2017 The U.S. president is unhappy with South Korea's softer approach to hostile North Korea, putting pressure on other disputes. America is scrutinizing its ally over currency manipulation and trade barriers. With China squeezing the economy, compromise would be advisable.
China can remake North Korea in its own image 6 Jun 2017 Beijing's influence over Pyongyang gets weaker daily, but it resists U.S. pressure to get tough. The alternative is for the People’s Republic to intervene and rebuild the Hermit Kingdom along its own economic model. It may be the best of a range of unattractive options.
Moon win offers South Korea ray of sunlight 9 May 2017 The election of liberal Moon Jae-in to the presidency heralds a softer stance on North Korea and restores domestic stability. That’s welcome. But he will need to unite a polarized nation to succeed where his ousted predecessor failed in resetting South Korea's growth model.
Markets call Trump’s war bluff on North Korea 8 May 2017 Investors are ignoring the U.S. president’s war rhetoric against Pyongyang, snapping up South Korean securities and modestly buying protection against default. Optimism over the global economy and a new leader in Seoul result in a mute reaction compared to past flashpoints.
North Korea’s pressure points are hard to push 9 Mar 2017 Pyongyang's missiles and an alleged murder are vexing its few friends; China's ban on coal imports suggests a fresh desire to tame its neighbour. Old foes like the U.S. could also apply more pressure through secondary sanctions. But that may, in turn, worsen relations with China.
North Korea defies Trump’s art of the deal 13 Feb 2017 The U.S. president has softened potential conflicts with Japan and China. Pyongyang, which fired a missile on Sunday, is more troublesome. Unlike its neighbours the hermit state offers little room for common ground on jobs or trade. Trump's business savvy will be of little use.
Kim Jong Un could succeed where Dan Loeb failed 23 Dec 2014 While it’s unlikely the North Korean leader wants to become a new kind of activist investor – despite the generous compensation – the hacking of Sony reignites the issue of whether the Japanese conglomerate should spin off its entertainment unit as Loeb’s Third Point suggested.