Asian tsunami offers lessons for Philippine repair 12 Nov 2013 Like typhoon Haiyan, the 2004 tidal wave caused death and devastation. In countries like Sri Lanka, subsequent rebuilding efforts sucked labour into construction, undermining export industries. The Philippines’ rapidly-expanding economy is at risk from similar distortions.
Asia’s inflation challenge – not enough of it 11 Nov 2013 Credit-fuelled domestic demand is not pushing up prices. Exports are weak, so producers are dumping surpluses locally at low prices. Also, rising Asian currencies have made imports cheaper. Tepid inflation increases the real cost of debt, which may slow investment.
San Miguel could lure Kirin into Heineken trap 7 Nov 2013 The Philippine conglomerate may be mulling a sale or listing of its brewing arm. That puts Kirin under pressure to buy the 51 pct it doesn’t already own or risk losing a key part of its Asian business to a rival. It could prove expensive, as the Dutch brewer found last year.
Dissing Uncle Sam is a low-cost political tactic 25 Sep 2013 Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff canceled a U.S. state visit and made a critical speech at the UN. Yet even pariah Iran has shown long-term growth on a par with some U.S. allies like the Philippines and Egypt. Bashing Washington doesn’t seem too costly. Wall Street is another matter.
Not all Asian countries need to fear the Fed 5 Sep 2013 Plunging currencies have raised contagion concerns. But not all nations are equally vulnerable to receding tides of dollar liquidity. A Breakingviews interactive map shows that while no Asian economy is entirely immune, none is as badly exposed as India.
Philippines has an unhealthy upgrade obsession 19 Mar 2013 Manila is on a low-debt diet as it pursues an investment-grade sovereign rating. But with foreign money pouring in, the government needs to sell more bonds to mop up excess liquidity. Mistimed austerity creates the risk of mispriced bank credit and asset bubbles.
Southeast Asia is wrong to neglect inflation risk 6 Mar 2013 Central banks in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand are turning a blind eye to rising prices in their fast-growing economies. They fear being swamped by capital inflows. But their reluctance to signal higher interest rates will make inflation harder to control in future.
Southeast Asia’s growth could lead to credit curbs 21 Feb 2013 The region’s debt-fuelled expansion is reviving memories of the unsustainable mid-1990s boom. But the authorities are reluctant to tighten monetary policy as higher interest rates might attract more foreign capital. Policy makers may prefer to control credit more directly.
Corruption is a deceptively good bad investment 7 Dec 2012 A new list of the world’s most corrupt countries includes some of the past decade’s most lucrative growth markets, such as China and the Philippines. Corruption may not scare investors in the early days. But that doesn’t mean it can’t come back to haunt them later.
Philippines just starting fight to shed bad past 15 Aug 2012 In the 1950s, the country had Asia’s highest per capita income outside Japan. Those days are gone, but growth is strong, the peso is rising, and an investment-grade rating is within reach. President Aquino needs to break the hold of oligarchs. “Sin taxes” will provide a test.
Manila is pillar of Southeast Asian strength 23 Jul 2012 Upgraded forecasts from the World Bank and IMF vindicate investor enthusiasm for an economy once known as Asia’s sick man. With Philippine markets roaring, President Aquino is loosening his belt to boost infrastructure and offset slowing global growth. He can afford to do more.
Asia’s bonds look shinier as Europe and China slump 16 May 2012 The region’s robust finances have made its sovereign debt a safe haven as bigger economies stall. An indiscriminate sell-off will affect everyone, but Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines all have qualities that should leave them less hard hit.
China has strongest hand in Philippine stand-off 15 May 2012 Manila protests China’s claims on disputed islands, but its economic position is weak. China is a big export customer, and has the money and tourists Manila needs to dig mines and fill new casinos. Whoever owns the South China Sea’s energy riches, China will be the biggest buyer.
Philippines investment story turns a corner 16 Jan 2012 It was once the sick man of Asia. But inflows from foreign workers and investors have pushed Philippine stocks up, and borrowing costs to multi-year lows. The Philippines isn’t immune to euro risk, but private investment in infrastructure should help create sustainable growth.
IMF’s education remedy won’t cure rich world ills 20 Sep 2011 The fund’s flagship yearly outlook laments a jobs crisis and rising inequality in wealthy nations. But its prescription of more education spending is unlikely to do the trick. Though desirable in many ways, such outlays aren’t the golden ticket economists often claim.