Saudi oil cut would be a hit-and-hope strategy 24 Jul 2017 The kingdom’s pact with OPEC to damp output is crumbling and has failed to drain inventories, or boost prices, fast enough. One suggestion is to reduce its own exports by as much as a seventh to shock markets into submission. If that fails, though, Saudi would look impotent.
Carillion needs high-speed balance sheet repair 17 Jul 2017 Despite winning a share of the UK’s 55 bln pound high-speed rail line, the distressed construction company’s situation is precarious. Its pressing task is to find investors to put in perhaps 500 mln pounds, before customers start cutting loose.
Dubai is weakest link in anti-Qatar stand-off 11 Jul 2017 Keeping its doors open while neighbours kept theirs closed has been a winning strategy for the Middle Eastern trading enclave. The blockade of Qatar will leave a mark on Dubai’s vital real estate sector and trade flows – and could leave its investor-friendly reputation dented.
Qatar’s squabbles turn its gas sour for investors 4 Jul 2017 The world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas has revealed plans to increase output by almost a third. World demand for the fuel is growing but so are supplies. Doha’s dispute with its Gulf neighbours makes its new expansion projects less appealing for risk-shy capitalists.
Qatar standoff spells end of Gulf cooperation 3 Jul 2017 Saudi Arabia has granted the sheikhdom two more days to comply with its demands. Failure to reach a deal could escalate the dispute, hitting regional economies and investors in equal measure. But even if both sides back down, plans for greater economic collaboration are on hold.
Oil markets too calm over Qatar ultimatum 23 Jun 2017 Doha’s Gulf neighbours have imposed a 10-day deadline to comply with demands including reparations, closing Al Jazeera and regular inspections. Markets have assumed the standoff won’t turn violent and impact oil supply from the region. That assumption is looking less secure.
Qatar’s American Airlines ticket not just politics 22 Jun 2017 Buying a stake in the carrier has all the hallmarks of a politically motivated deal. Flexing its financial muscles in the United States sends a defiant message to its enemies circling in the Gulf. But American Airlines also offers commercial value on top of diplomatic leverage.
Barclays fraud case serves justice lukewarm 20 Jun 2017 Britain’s graft watchdog charged the lender and four former executives over its 2008 Qatari capital raising. It’s significant as the first set of charges brought against a major UK bank for crisis-era activity. But in the intervening decade Barclays, and the world, have moved on.
Qatar currency peg is weapon of mutual destruction 19 Jun 2017 Keeping the riyal tied to the U.S. dollar helps stabilize the economy and keep inflation low. Breaking the peg would hurt the emirate, but also pile pressure on Doha’s regional enemies to follow suit. Pressure on the currency could make fears of devaluation self-fulfilling.
Qatar’s weak link in Saudi stand-off: people 9 Jun 2017 The sheikhdom has the money and resources required to withstand a cold war with its neighbours. Its economy depends on foreign expatriates, though, who account for more than three-quarters of the population. Preventing a demographic drain is the best reason to agree to a truce.
Crude price drop is symptom of rising U.S. clout 7 Jun 2017 U.S. oil fell 5 pct to under $46 a barrel after the nation's stocks unexpectedly increased. Back in the day, an attack in Iran and tension between OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Qatar might have dominated. Demand was soft, too, but America's shale is changing the balance of power.
Qatar crisis points to quick but uncomfortable fix 6 Jun 2017 As Arab states and U.S. President Trump align against the emirate, the chance of leadership change is rising. Another reshuffle within the ruling family might unblock trade and diplomatic links without affecting Qatar’s economic prospects. But the precedent would be alarming.
Qatar quarrel shows limit of its sovereign wealth 6 Jun 2017 The emirate’s $300 bln-plus fund has snapped up landmark buildings and stakes in companies like Barclays and Rosneft. The spree was meant to generate returns and diplomatic clout. But Qatar’s largesse has produced few allies to help it face down its more powerful neighbours.
Saudi-Qatar rift is old theme with Trumpian twist 5 Jun 2017 After the U.S. president’s whistlestop visit, the kingdom has turned on its gas-rich neighbour. Saudi has long suspected Qatar of supporting terrorism and sidling up to Iran. Deep fractures in a region that pumps a fifth of the world’s oil could spill over into markets.
Chinese join Qatar in Deutsche Bank bargain club 17 Feb 2017 Aviation conglomerate HNA is following the sheikhdom in acquiring 3 pct of Germany's biggest lender by assets. Other Chinese bidders are eyeing European banks. While the industry's politicisation will restrict outright dealmaking, a pure punt on bombed-out Deutsche makes sense.
Millennial princes snatch at power in Gulf 3 Jan 2017 Ageing monarchs may hand greater powers to a younger, more progressive generation in 2017. Falling oil revenues and ballooning budget deficits are forcing sheikhdoms to make overdue economic and social reforms or risk financial meltdown. Millennial thinking could help.
Monte dei Paschi endgame can still be made fair 22 Dec 2016 Italy's third-biggest bank unsurprisingly failed to raise 5 billion euros. A forcible debt-for-equity swap would limit state money. If compensation was only paid to mis-sold retail creditors, MPS could be rescued within European rules and without unfairly hitting taxpayers.
Gulf bank mergers will solve an oily problem 20 Dec 2016 Three Qatari banks have become the latest in the region to explore merging. They won't be the last. Exposure to volatile crude and hard-up state owners could trigger more consolidation of the sector in 2017. Governments will exit their charges - and ease their budgetary holes.
Rosneft deal is more about Qatar than Glencore 7 Dec 2016 The $54 bln commodity group and the Arab state are buying 19.5 pct of the Russian oil giant for $11 bln. It will boost Glencore's oil presence but the Qataris, who presided over the recent OPEC output pact and own 9 pct of their partner's shares, are making a bigger statement.
Qatar’s investment strategy due a strategic pivot 22 Aug 2016 The gas-rich sheikhdom's big investments - banks, real estate and car makers - have not all worked out. Qatar should instead buy stakes in the end-users of its gas. With commodity prices low, defensive holdings in sectors you know make more sense than bets in ones you don't.