Cox: Impeachment hedge runs through Saudi Arabia 21 Feb 2019 As the U.S. special counsel’s work wraps up, investors are pondering how a move by Congress to oust President Donald Trump would affect financial markets. One of the more intriguing ideas is a hedge against the knock-on effect of impeachment on the Saudi-dominated oil market.
Thruppence: Who wins by sponsoring UK book prize? 29 Jan 2019 Man Group has ended its support for the UK’s prestigious Booker award. The hedge fund decided there were worthier recipients of its 1.6 mln pound annual cheque. Luckily for aspiring authors, Breakingviews columnists have a handy shortlist of those who could step into the breach.
Deripaska markdown will persist at En+ and Rusal 28 Jan 2019 The Russian metals groups have been freed from U.S. sanctions. Though their shares have perked up, they still trade below pre-sanctions level. Given the risk of new penalties should previous majority owner Oleg Deripaska exercise control, the valuation gap will linger.
Oleg Deripaska’s En+ deal is more sour than sweet 23 Jan 2019 The settlement that distanced the Russian oligarch from his power company has favourable aspects, the New York Times says. Certain provisions could even limit the financial hit from U.S. sanctions still in place against him. The overall outcome is, however, still pretty painful.
U.S. Oleg Deripaska deal tougher than it looks 20 Dec 2018 Washington’s decision to lift sanctions on En+ and allow the Russian oligarch to keep a 45 pct stake sounds lenient. Yet it looks difficult for Deripaska to sell his stake for cash or exercise decisive influence. After a messy beginning, the U.S. raid seems a qualified success.
Trump can get what he wants from Saudi in 2019 14 Dec 2018 As the year closes, oil prices have fallen to well below highs that riled the U.S. president. The risk is OPEC supply cuts and sanctions on Iran will send them back up. Yet scope to influence the kingdom on output – as well as its behaviour in the region - gives him a hedge.
Bush paid history’s economic dividends forward 1 Dec 2018 During the 41st U.S. president's one term, Soviet communism fell and Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was foiled. The "kinder, gentler" Bush was the last of a Washington breed that sought compromise. He put country over party. His successors reaped, and then squandered, the benefits.
Viewsroom: The $230 bln scam rocking Nordic banks 25 Oct 2018 Danish lender Danske has already lost its chief executive on news that one of its Estonian branches was used to launder Russian money. Now Nordea and others are facing questions. Plus: investors drive car stocks into a ditch - and Daimler's and Ford's dividends look vulnerable.
Russia and Saudi’s oil stitch-up will unravel 4 Oct 2018 Moscow and Riyadh’s deal to boost crude output is the best chance of cooling red-hot prices. Yet the duo’s power is more limited than it appears. U.S. sanctions on Iran will dent the Islamic Republic’s supply faster than they can pump. Prices could still spike in the short term.
Russia will keep on mixing toys and politics 21 Aug 2018 Strong first-half sales at children’s store Detsky Mir will help Sistema, which needs to sell its stake after a costly $1.5 billion settlement with Rosneft. A less politically risky owner might help the rapidly growing toy group’s low valuation. Yet that’s in no way guaranteed.
Cox: When commemorating crises, think 20 not 10 15 Aug 2018 As the decennial anniversary of Lehman’s systemic collapse approaches, it’s worth recalling the one that preceded it. Russia’s 1998 default led to LTCM’s demise. Shockingly, that fiasco’s lessons went mostly unheeded until 2008. The key takeaway: there are always blind spots.
Putin has strong defences against U.S. debt siege 15 Aug 2018 The rouble has slumped on fears that Russia’s sovereign bonds will be next in the crosshairs of U.S. sanctions. That would cause a stink, but the bill may not pass into legislation. If it does, oil prices and Moscow’s low debt mean President Vladimir Putin can weather a crisis.
World Cup Soccernomics 29 May 2018 Who will lift soccer’s ultimate trophy in Russia this summer? Breakingviews ranked the 32 contenders according to player values, population, home support, and participation in the sport. Put them all together, and Germany is best placed to successfully defend its crown.
OPEC supply easing is more reset than U-turn 25 May 2018 Saudi Arabia and Russia may lift oil output by 1 million barrels per day. Though that could knock prices, production of the black stuff will be more in line with the cartel’s previously agreed curbs. It’s a more far-sighted plan than allowing the value of crude to keep rising.
Emirates NBD’s Turkish deal riskier than it looks 22 May 2018 The Dubai-based lender is paying Russia’s Sberbank $3.2 bln for Denizbank, Turkey’s fifth-largest bank by assets. NBD is buying a high-return asset near book value, and gets to diversify its top line. Yet Turkey’s rising risks reduce the extent to which this is a bargain.
UK’s tough-guy act on Russia can only go so far 21 May 2018 Britain’s delay over the renewal of Roman Abramovich’s visa comes against the backdrop of a wider clampdown on Russian oligarchs. Its sanctions on Moscow, however, contain holes. Closing them requires EU support and a readiness for the City to lose out in the crossfire.
Qatar’s Rosneft stake is pricey insurance policy 5 May 2018 The Gulf state will take back 14 pct of the Russian state oil group after a $9 bln sale to China’s CEFC collapsed. That helps Qatar-backed Glencore keep a supply agreement with Rosneft. Firmer links with Moscow also give Saudi Arabia another reason to ease up on Doha.
Deripaska’s sanctions sale may have silver lining 27 Apr 2018 The Russian oligarch plans to reduce his stake in power and aluminium group En+ below 50 pct, after heat from U.S. sanctions. That risks locking in losses on shares that have halved since April 5. Still, if restrictions are eased, his remaining holding should recover.
U.S. sanctions rethink is only partly reassuring 24 Apr 2018 A Treasury decision to delay the effects of sanctions on Rusal and allow it to disentangle itself from Oleg Deripaska has boosted the shares of the Russian group. But it leaves U.S. policy harder to gauge. That doesn’t augur well for next month’s crunch decision on Iran.
Russia’s banks could once more be its airbag 16 Apr 2018 The Kremlin has already authorised short-term liquidity to metals group Rusal. If the U.S. sanctions net gets cast wider, Moscow could use its control of the big Russian banks to prop up stricken companies. After all, that’s what it did when things last got dicey in 2014.