MbS vs. Putin will be an oil drama in several acts 11 Mar 2020 The Saudi crown prince and Russian president’s crude supply pact has blown up into a full-on price war. On the face of it, Moscow’s budget means Vladimir Putin is better able to bear extended low prices. But Mohammed bin Salman also has options to keep the wolf from the door.
Big Oil’s wipeout invites a new sort of activist 9 Mar 2020 Plunging crude prices have sent BP shares down 20%, with Shell and Total close behind. The rout could make it harder for oil majors to shift away from fossil fuels. Dirt-cheap valuations offer a way for activists to push CEOs to cut investment and return cash to shareholders.
Saudi sets global oil a stress test few will pass 9 Mar 2020 An all-out price war launched by the kingdom crashed the crude price over 20%. Values well below $40 a barrel are a setback for U.S. shale producers, global oil majors, national budgets, and the climate change fight. At least Saudi oil giant Aramco will share the short-term pain.
OPEC Russian roulette yields circular firing squad 6 Mar 2020 Moscow has rejected the cartel’s pleas for a supply cut to ease a virus-linked demand slump. Given the scale of the oil market imbalance, an inadequate deal was the best that could have been hoped for. But OPEC’s efforts to force the issue look like leaving everyone worse off.
Russia rainy day fund raid sets bad precedent 6 Mar 2020 The country’s National Wealth Fund may buy the central bank’s 50% stake in Sberbank for $36 billion. It’s a sneaky way for the government to boost spending without breaking its fiscal rules. The danger is that President Vladimir Putin repeats the ruse with other state firms.
OPEC readies knife for oil demand-slump gunfight 3 Mar 2020 The cartel and its Russian allies are set to curb crude supply again, to counter a virus-induced price fall. But even a 1 mln barrels per day cut may not do the job. To hike prices, OPEC needs Russia to prove helpful, Libya to stay troubled, and the coronavirus to not get worse.
Rosneft’s sanctions yellow card won’t turn red 19 Feb 2020 The Russian oil giant’s trading subsidiary is the target of the toughest form of U.S. sanctions over Venezuela. Unlike 2018 curbs on Rusal and En+, it shouldn’t hurt Rosneft much. Tougher measures are unlikely given the unwanted surge they might trigger in oil prices.
Russia’s En+ tiptoes between sanction risks 6 Feb 2020 The metal and energy group will buy VTB’s stake in itself for $1.6 bln. Not having the sanctioned bank as a shareholder is a positive. But with a new 7% stake the En+ chairman is even more incentivised to prevent Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska from regaining his former influence.
Nord Stream 2 exposes the limits of U.S. sanctions 29 Jan 2020 Washington dislikes the new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, and tried to stop its construction. But Moscow can bear the likely delays, and sanctions won’t be extended to Nord Stream 2’s users. It’s hard for the U.S. to be tougher when its own Russian stance is muddled.
Virus panic makes OPEC cat-herding even harder 28 Jan 2020 Oil prices have dipped below $60 a barrel on fears the coronavirus will hit growth. The Saudi-led producers group already has a job convincing the likes of Russia to keep supporting cuts agreed in December. The virus jitters might make others, such as Riyadh, want to double down.
Putin picks good time for Potemkin reshuffle 15 Jan 2020 The Russian government has resigned, amid plans to change the constitution. However it’s resolved, Vladimir Putin’s grip on the state he has ruled for two decades will endure. But given the manner of the extension still matters, he has chosen a relatively calm time to act.
Investors warming to Putin’s Russia will go cold 2 Jan 2020 Inbound retail and technology deals suggest the business climate is improving. It helps that U.S. lawmakers are too busy with impeachment proceedings and an election to enact major new sanctions. But big, if hollow, spending plans aren’t taking off. Economic torpor will persist.
OPEC insures Saudi Aramco against first-day blues 6 Dec 2019 The oil producers club and allies will hold back 0.9 million barrels per day on top of an existing 1.2 million barrel cut. While only for three months, it’s a coup of sorts for de facto leader Saudi Arabia. And it means newly listed Aramco will start trading on a firmer footing.
Russian tech investors see benefits of state grip 19 Nov 2019 Internet group Yandex’s shares jumped after it tweaked its governance to avoid a clampdown on foreign ownership. The new setup hands power to a fuzzy Russian entity, and could enable government meddling. But shareholders have less to worry about than peers in China, or America.
U.S. might quite like a China deal for En+ 9 Sep 2019 State firms linked to Beijing may buy Russian VTB’s stake in the energy group. Washington, which attached strict conditions to the de-sanctioning of Rusal’s parent, wouldn’t love a Russia-China sale. But it could at least help distance still-sanctioned Oleg Deripaska from En+.
Russian oil group’s cash gusher could stay capped 5 Sep 2019 Surgutneftegaz shares have surged on reports of a new subsidiary, which may unlock its $50 bln cash pile. Yet the boss of the secretive $24 bln energy company is under U.S. sanctions and it’s at risk of fresh ones. The bonanza could just remain a buffer against bad news.
Russia’s En+ swaps one U.S. headache for another 16 Aug 2019 The Rusal holding company escaped punitive Washington sanctions in the first half. But Donald Trump’s trade war pummelled aluminium prices, leading to a sharp drop in EBITDA. Investors face a long wait to get anywhere near their 2017 IPO price.
Google can battle some authoritarian states 13 Aug 2019 Russia’s regulator is pressuring YouTube to remove invites to anti-government protests. Luckily for the tech giant, capacity building for extreme censorship takes a while. Unlike in China, Moscow’s muscle is capped by shortcomings in technology and risk of political blowback.
Review: Fighting the second Cold War, lab by lab 26 Jul 2019 U.S. scientific power is a potent diplomatic weapon. Greg Whitesides's new book details how Washington used research largesse to reward friends and punish the Soviet Union. Now a similar conflict is brewing with China, a more formidable rival. This time, there can be no winner.
Aging app kerfuffle shows fun trumps privacy 18 Jul 2019 Consumers love FaceApp’s filter for making selfies look older or sexier. Its Russian ownership has suddenly sparked privacy worries. Yet the app isn’t new, and people have been posting their images on social media for years. It’s past time for regulators to set some boundaries.