Saudi Arabia

Saudi’s HQ edict puts global banks in awkward spot

23 Feb 2021

The kingdom has ruffled feathers with plans to withhold state contracts from groups that don’t base their Middle East headquarters in Riyadh. The rule may not apply to all sectors. Even so, bankers face a tricky call over whether to up sticks or risk angering a valuable client.

Saudi gets a partial brand detox with Qatar thaw

6 Jan 2021

Ending Riyadh’s three-year embargo with Doha gives both states a minor economic boost. It also removes one of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s Saudi-related headaches. But its main benefit could be to reduce the extent to which foreign investors see the kingdom as kryptonite.

Aramco-Reliance is one deal too strategic to fail

11 Nov 2020

The Saudi oil giant’s imputed $75 bln valuation of Mukesh Ambani’s oil-to-chemicals unit last year now looks rich given weak demand and crude prices. That could mean terms get tweaked for the 20% stake sale. But the long-term significance for both sides will help get it done.

Aramco’s mighty value reflects mini investor base

3 Nov 2020

Shares in the $1.8 trln Saudi oil giant are flat since January, while those of western rivals like BP have halved. Aramco’s solid and more-secure dividend explains some of the difference. But a tiny free float comprised of investors who are less likely to sell helps, too.

Aramco pipeline spinoff plan is born of necessity

14 Oct 2020

The $1.9 trln oil giant is echoing Abu Dhabi-based peer ADNOC by discussing a part-sale of its distribution network with BlackRock and others. Aramco’s foreign investors’ dividend is safe. But financing state payouts and other activities requires the $10 bln it could raise.

Saudi $46 bln bank M&A works best for crown prince

12 Oct 2020

A union of state-backed NCB and Samba gives leader Mohammed bin Salman a lender with more scope to fund his mega-projects. The latter group’s shareholders are getting a stingy premium. The prospect of juicy shared cost savings should nonetheless get the deal over the line.

Review: MbS, Saudi Arabia’s sharpest prince

4 Sep 2020

From the Ritz rumble to unleashing a sovereign fund, "Blood and Oil" brings together the antics of the kingdom’s crown prince in a gripping page-turner. Mohammed bin Salman’s rise through grisly palace politics to unprecedented power elicits horror and, sometimes, admiration.

Aramco’s dividend defences are triple-locked

10 Aug 2020

The Saudi state oil giant is disbursing $18.8 bln despite quarterly earnings slumping to $6.6 bln. Ultra-low costs lend an edge over Western rivals. Low debt and priority for private shareholders are extra buffers for those willing to overlook environmental and social concerns.

Saudi $45 bln bank M&A is haunted by past failure

25 Jun 2020

The kingdom’s biggest lender NCB wants an all-share combo with Samba, having dropped its pursuit of Riyad Bank last year. Local retail investors may shrug at the prospect of creating a banking champion. That means the acquirer will have to pay towards the top of a mooted range.

Sovereign funds are having their rainy-day moment

23 Jun 2020

Temasek is stepping in to support Singapore Airlines and a marine group. It makes sense to shore up strategic assets at home when global valuations are high and cash is on hand. Peers from Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala to Malaysia’s Khazanah are likely to follow.

Aramco’s SABIC saga ends in unhappy compromise

17 Jun 2020

The $69 bln that the oil giant has ended up paying for a 70% stake in the chemicals firm is a lot more than its current value. Aramco’s consolation is that it can pay SABIC’s owner, a Saudi wealth fund, over a longer period. But neither buyer nor seller is getting what they want.

Oil prices are stuck in a narrow tunnel

12 Jun 2020

After spiking above $40 a barrel, crude has now slumped again. Voluntary and enforced supply cuts have put a floor under the market after April’s shock falls. But the risk of a second coronavirus wave, and the difficulties of coordinating production hikes, point to a ceiling.

Aramco well placed for timid oil recovery

12 May 2020

The Saudi oil giant’s earnings slumped 25% in the first quarter, but its cash pile means it can keep dividends flowing. True, Aramco may not prevail in its Atlas-like attempt to prop up the world’s oil market alone. But there are tentative indications that it might not have to.

Saudi’s $69 bln asset rejig collides with reality

11 May 2020

Giant Aramco is trying to cut the price of last year’s deal to buy 70% of chemicals firm SABIC. A discount would give Riyadh’s Public Investment Fund less cash to pivot Saudi’s economy away from oil. Budget concerns make helping the kingdom’s corporate cash cow more important.

Oil car crash highlights Aramco investors’ airbag

6 May 2020

The Saudi crude giant’s shares have fallen less than those of western peers. Shareholders’ scope to avoid the dividend cuts now hitting oil majors is one reason why. It helps that Riyadh may be able to borrow its way out of the crisis rather than have to drain its cash cow.

Mukesh Ambani gives Saudis a run for their money

4 May 2020

A $7 bln rights issue backstopped by the Reliance Industries boss will help keep his promise to cut debt. Although smaller than a delayed deal with Aramco, the discounted stock sale is a record for India. The symbolic significance should instil more confidence amid the pandemic.

Viewsroom: The F’d up oil market

23 Apr 2020

Breakingviews columnists in London, Mumbai and Brooklyn discuss what’s going on in the global energy markets amid the coronavirus crisis, as well as Facebook’s big Indian deal and the U.S. government’s attempt to prop up small businesses with the Paycheck Protection Program.

Corona Capital: Extended Stay, Victoria’s Secret

22 Apr 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Blackstone checks back into one of its favorite old haunts, hotel chain Extended Stay; while another private-equity shop, Sycamore, tries to dump its proposed investment in lingerie seller Victoria’s Secret.

SEC puts small plug in oil ETF loss gusher

21 Apr 2020

The U.S. agency has stopped USO, a popular exchange-traded fund used by investors to bet on oil, from creating new shares. Stemming the fund’s growth may help trading in a futures market wracked by negative prices. But it won’t stop its investors facing huge losses.

Oil’s big crash is more rational than it looks

20 Apr 2020

U.S. one-month crude futures went below zero for the first time ever on Monday. With the May contract about to expire, the slump is partly driven by technical factors. But the wider panic – that recent output cuts won’t stop storage being filled – couldn’t be any more real.