Saudi can pick a path through its OPEC minefield 27 Nov 2018 Riyadh must somehow please oil-producing peers who want to bolster prices and a U.S. president who wants the opposite. Crude costs will rise when Donald Trump’s temporary Iranian oil waivers expire. Saudi can appease both sides by making equally temporary reductions in output.
Trump’s Saudi amorality can make Gulf great again 26 Nov 2018 Support for Mohammed bin Salman after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi has skewered U.S. claims to moral leadership. Yet the U.S. president now has huge leverage to force Saudi’s crown prince to reverse course on Qatar, Yemen and other blunders. He would be a fool not to use it.
Saudi stock market’s “MbS discount” to get worse 22 Nov 2018 Since Jamal Khashoggi’s murder in October, foreigners have dumped Riyadh-listed assets. Donald Trump’s indifference to the crown prince’s alleged role in the killing offers some reprieve. But the kingdom’s stability and long-term economic progress have been permanently impaired.
Oil forecasting goes from tough to pointless 14 Nov 2018 In recent months crude has hit $86 a barrel, fallen to $65, and is now rising again. Oil prices drive other markets, but predicting them can be a waste of time. Changing demand outlooks, Saudi turmoil and Trump are only the most volatile of a series of uncertainties.
Khashoggi affair presents economic risk for Egypt 30 Oct 2018 Repercussions of the Saudi journalist’s murder could dent Egypt’s return to growth and stability. Cairo depends on the remittances of workers in the kingdom and the flow of Gulf tourists to build foreign exchange reserves, without which the central bank can’t easily lower rates.
Saudi reforms crash into royal reputational risk 26 Oct 2018 In October 2017, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman outlined a more liberal and market-friendly vision in Riyadh. A year on, the kingdom is under fire after the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Breakingviews explains what happened in between.
E-book: A year in the life of MbS 26 Oct 2018 In October 2017, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman outlined a more liberal and market-friendly vision in Riyadh. A year on, the kingdom is under fire after the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Breakingviews explains what happened in between.
Khashoggi showcases moral trilemma of big business 26 Oct 2018 Total sent its CEO to Riyadh for Saudi’s flagship conference despite its role in a Saudi journalist’s death. HSBC fielded a big team, too. Firms strive to be larger, profitable and ethical, but often only achieve the first two. Profit’s lead over ethics appears to be narrowing.
Cox: Saudenfreude over Khashoggi absent from Doha 25 Oct 2018 As Mohammed bin Salman’s blockade of Qatar nears the year and a half mark, it would be easy for the tiny-but-rich Gulf state to gloat over the kingdom’s woes. But chaos across the border is a big worry. A quiet high road is paying off for Qatar. Even MbS seems to agree.
Saudi oil could help grease Turkish discretion 24 Oct 2018 Leaked details of a Saudi journalist’s death have dominated Turkish media but President Erdogan hasn’t yet directly implicated the kindgom’s crown prince. Ankara may be hoping to use its leverage to help its economy. The lira has recovered, but cheap oil would still help.
Trump’s Saudi arms deal isn’t a jobs offensive 23 Oct 2018 The U.S. president is urging Congress not to sanction Saudi Arabia by blocking arms sales, saying that could jeopardize 1 million jobs. The deal would probably boost profit margins for Lockheed and others but not do much for employment. Claims to the contrary are largely spin.
One alternative to tainted Saudi cash: Qatar 23 Oct 2018 As Riyadh’s investment shindig opens, the Khashoggi affair has cast a pall on the kingdom as a source of funds for Western startups, infrastructure and the like. Qatar is smaller and blockaded, but rich. If the world needs a vision fund, it could just as easily come from Doha.
Signal is patchy for SoftBank’s jumbo IPO 23 Oct 2018 A mooted $27 bln listing of the mobile unit is key to Masayoshi Son’s vision for the Japanese group but problems are piling up for what could be the world’s biggest IPO. A new rival, high phone fees, and links to Riyadh could all prevent Son dialling up a premium reception.
Saudi turmoil is new twist on old C-suite dilemma 20 Oct 2018 The kingdom’s admission that Jamal Khashoggi died in its Istanbul consulate damages the crown prince’s ability to execute his Vision 2030 strategy. If Saudi were a company, its chairman would replace the CEO and continue with economic reforms. That possibility remains remote.
Viewsroom: Saudi fiasco sets Wall Street ablaze 18 Oct 2018 Bankers and officials have ditched a huge Saudi shindig after Turkey accused the kingdom of killing a prominent journalist – but big deal fees and oil reserves make the kingdom hard to shun. Breakingviews columnists discuss the financial ramifications of the diplomatic crisis.
Japanese banks sit quietly pretty in Saudi saga 17 Oct 2018 Top U.S. and European bank bosses have pulled out of Riyadh’s investment conference. Japanese rivals MUFG and Mizuho are relatively insulated from the same culture of protest. If anything, it’s a chance to court favour in the kingdom and increase their share of Saudi’s fee wallet.
Oil makes Saudi Arabia slippery sanctions target 16 Oct 2018 U.S. lawmakers are invoking a law used to impose Russian sanctions to demand answers about a missing journalist. There’s momentum for a similar penalty for the kingdom. But Saudi retaliation could hike oil prices - the opposite of what President Trump has been agitating for.
Saudi fail is fresh win for U.S. banks over Europe 16 Oct 2018 The bosses of HSBC, Credit Suisse and StanChart are quitting Riyadh’s investment conference next week. Belatedly following JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s lead cements their pre-existing status as also-rans. French banks may yet go – but any pickup in business will be tainted.
There’s method in Saudi’s Man Utd soccer madness 15 Oct 2018 The kingdom’s crown prince may back a tilt at the UK soccer club, reports the Sun. It sounds barmy, and a convenient distraction from the international storm over a journalist’s disappearance. Yet Saudi backing for a new elite club tournament means it could make financial sense.
Wall Street shows Trump the way on Saudi Arabia 15 Oct 2018 BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Steve Schwarzman of Blackstone have joined other CEOs in skipping Riyadh’s “Davos in the Desert”. Private sector boycotts usually follow state sanctions. The U.S. government’s inaction reflects its reliance on Saudi Arabia, and fear of high oil prices.