Syria assault has cruel economic logic for Turkey 10 Oct 2019 President Tayyip Erdogan hopes attacking Kurdish militia will enable him to send Syrian refugees home and launch a $27 billion construction drive. A severe humanitarian fallout could lead to tougher U.S. reprisals. But if Turkey can avoid these it would help its battered economy.
EU immigration deal papers over two big problems 29 Jun 2018 A fudge on migration whipped up by leaders satisfies Italy’s new government and gives German Chancellor Angela Merkel something that may placate her Bavarian allies. But the former’s confrontational stance and the domestic weakness of the latter remain worrying fault lines.
Cowed LafargeHolcim sets sights appropriately low 2 Mar 2018 The new boss of the world’s largest cement maker has scrapped a share buyback and set the group’s EBITDA growth target at 5 pct. Jan Jenisch can probably do better. Still, given LafargeHolcim’s various headaches since its merger the conservatism is understandable.
Trump’s Syria strikes don’t justify crude worries 7 Apr 2017 Oil spiked after U.S. missiles rained on Syria. The fear isn’t that supplies will be disrupted but that Syrian ally Iran, which has been increasing its output of crude, will be hit with renewed sanctions. Even if that happens, other forces could keep markets well supplied.
Turkey-Russia pact can survive Ankara flashpoint 20 Dec 2016 Moscow’s ambassador in the Turkish capital has been shot dead by a policeman seeking revenge for Aleppo. In 2015, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin were at loggerheads. Now mutual self-interest over Syria and a perceived common enemy mean the shock can be smoothed over.
Russia lacks cash and motive to rebuild Syria 16 Dec 2016 After the last Iraq war, U.S. reconstruction cash poured in. Were Aleppo's collapse to prompt the end of the war in Syria, Moscow's economic fragility would make it unlikely to follow suit. An EU populist backlash against a fresh influx of fleeing Syrians helps Russia anyway.
Saudi’s sweet debt deal could rebound on banks 21 Apr 2016 The kingdom is close to its first international debt deal in 25 years to plug a hole in its finances caused by weak oil prices. Vast oil reserves make Saudi debt enticing, but the price slump is changing the game in several ways. And Middle East states have defaulted before.
Migrant crisis buys Germany unexpected growth 6 Jan 2016 Angela Merkel’s open door for war refugees will push government spending up by 31 bln euros over two years. Healthy public finances mean Berlin can foot the bill. In the face of sluggish global growth, the stimulus will make Germany’s relative strength more pronounced.
Dixon: Turkey’s economy threatened on many fronts 7 Dec 2015 A row with Russia, a resurgence of violence within its borders and the prospect of the Fed raising rates have coincided with President Erdogan’s increasing politicisation of the economy and bad governance. This could prove a toxic cocktail given the private sector’s high debt.
Dixon: Syrian peace process offers hope post-Paris 16 Nov 2015 After the attacks, outside powers called for a ceasefire followed by a political transition. A big obstacle is that Russia and America don’t agree on what should happen to Assad. But it’s the best chance to end the war, crush Islamic State and solve the refugee crisis.
Paris attacks can both unify and cleave Europe 14 Nov 2015 Deadly assaults across the French capital have sparked the sort of international solidarity which could help Europe surmount recent acrimony over issues such as migration. But the fears they generate may shape debates about security and cultural integration in ways that divide.
Breakdown: Migrant crisis reshapes Europe politics 8 Sep 2015 The number of people flooding into the continent is only a small part of the story. More worrying: old political anxieties are being rekindled. While migration won’t immediately affect economic issues like Greece’s bailout or the euro, it could jeopardise European cohesion.
Migration crisis echoes age-old test of finance 1 Sep 2015 The flow of desperate people to Europe has a financial-world parallel. For companies, high returns attract new entrants who threaten incumbents’ comfortable state. The options for EU leaders are similar too: shut out competition, or find new, better ways to create profit.
Hugo Dixon: Cameron, UK hurt by Syria vote fiasco 30 Aug 2013 Never in modern history has a British prime minister lost a parliamentary vote authorising military force. Cameron may cling on to power, but his authority at home has taken a hit. So has his standing abroad, and Britain’s influence. The PM himself is largely to blame.
Fracking may change U.S. foreign policy for good 28 Aug 2013 The abundant supply of hydrocarbons made accessible by hydraulic fracturing has brought America much closer to energy independence and created a buffer for the global oil price. The shift gives Uncle Sam new latitude in handling problems in Syria and throughout the Middle East.
West faces only high-cost options in Syria 28 Aug 2013 Surgical strikes against the Assad regime’s military facilities may aim to undermine its ability to deploy chemical weapons. There would be a price for doing nothing, but action is fraught with risks and could exacerbate regional instability.
Hugo Dixon: West mustn’t rush into Syrian conflict 27 Aug 2013 Before it takes any military action, the West needs to present compelling evidence that Bashar al-Assad gassed his people. Any intervention must also be a specific response to the gas attack rather than suck the West into the civil war. In the process, refugees should not be forgotten.
Hugo Dixon: Arming Syrian rebels fraught with risk 3 Jun 2013 The UK, France and maybe America are edging towards a policy of arming “moderate” rebels if peace talks don’t produce a breakthrough. The idea would be to tilt the war in favour of moderates, and against both Assad and Sunni jihadists. But it might not work out that way.
Syria exposes neighbours’ economic vulnerability 24 Jul 2012 While Turkey and Iraq will watch events over the border nervously, they have little direct economic exposure to Syria. But as pressure grows on the Assad regime, Jordan and Lebanon are feeling a financial impact that is weighing on growth.
Hugo Dixon: Nonviolent struggles need leadership 2 Jul 2012 Immediately after the Arab Spring, the romantic idea emerged that velvet revolutions could emerge spontaneously via Facebook and Twitter. But Syria’s civil war and Egypt’s continuing power struggle show how revolutions need leadership to get both to first base and beyond.