Turkey

Gulf’s World Cup love-in has uncertain shelf life

25 Nov 2022

Egypt and Turkey used the tournament to smooth over old differences, and ex-rivals Saudi Arabia and Qatar are getting along. Riyadh may even use its new oil heft to put $5 bln in cash-strapped Ankara’s central bank. The risk is new tensions, perhaps over Iran, upend the goodwill.

Turkish mobile spat exposes state fund weakness

10 Jan 2022

Billionaire Mikhail Fridman wants to overhaul Turkcell’s board to boost the $3 bln group’s valuation. Turkey’s state wealth fund, which appoints most of the directors, looks an obstacle. With stakes in other ailing companies like Turkish Airlines, it’s proving a poor custodian.

Turkey’s lira prop-up plan is dangerous

21 Dec 2021

President Tayyip Erdogan is guaranteeing deposits against local currency drops. It’s tacit admission Turkey’s banks aren’t immune to fallout from his odd views on inflation and interest rates. Details are fuzzy but putting taxpayers on the hook for the lira is asking for trouble.

BBVA’s Turkey M&A logic beats currency chaos

24 Nov 2021

Just before the lira’s plunge, the Spanish bank offered to buy the 50% it doesn’t own of local lender Garanti. The crisis will push up bad debt and squeeze lending margins. But the target’s low valuation and the inefficiency of only owning half give BBVA reason enough to proceed.

Voters are last brake on Turkey’s lunatic express

19 Nov 2021

Bullied by President Tayyip Erdogan, the central bank slashed borrowing costs to 15%. Fearing runaway inflation, the lira plunged to record lows. With few other checks on a leader at war with interest rates, 2023 elections may be Turks’ best hope of restoring monetary sanity.

Viewsroom: European bank M&A, De-Dutching Shell

18 Nov 2021

Big lenders in the euro zone are doing deals, but not the kind investment bankers dream about. BNP Paribas is in U.S. retreat, BBVA bulks up in Turkey and KBC goes Bulgarian. Liam Proud explains. George Hay explains why the Anglo-Dutch oil major is dropping the Dutch bit.

EU banks march east towards muddy investment case

15 Nov 2021

BBVA may take full control of its Turkish unit for 2.2 bln euros and KBC is spending 1 bln euros on a Bulgarian rival. There’s logic to the deals. But boosting emerging-market risk and geographic sprawl carries a valuation penalty. Investors would rather have the cash themselves.

Turkey goes deeper into parallel monetary universe

23 Sep 2021

Ankara cut its main policy rate to 18% from 19%, kowtowing to President Erdogan just as other central banks take the opposite tack. A weaker lira and soaring energy bills add to the economy's inflation pains. With two years to another election, there’s little respite in sight.

Turkey’s monetary meddling offers scant rewards

15 Apr 2021

The country’s central bank kept its interest rate at 19%. Having replaced his chief rate-setter in March, President Tayyip Erdogan hasn’t yet got the lower borrowing costs he wants. Rising inflation, a weak currency and the loss of credibility mean policy will need to stay tight.

Turkey’s soft capital controls are transitory fix

29 Mar 2021

Subtle curbs that make it harder to sell the lira will slow its fall. They won’t be enough if the central bank’s new boss starts cutting rates under political pressure. President Tayyip Erdogan can impose tougher restrictions but will hurt the economy if he is too heavy-handed.

Viewsroom: Turkish trouble and emerging markets

25 Mar 2021

President Tayyip Erdogan’s abrupt firing of a third central bank governor forced investors to contemplate whether this might precipitate a run on financial assets in other developing markets, including South Africa. Breakingviews columnists discuss the implications.

Turkey’s battered banks face a slow-burn crisis

25 Mar 2021

A plummeting lira creates the risk of a funding squeeze for Garanti BBVA, Akbank, Isbank and others. But they’ve survived past crises without a bank run. The more likely problem for the sector is mounting bad debt, which will drag down returns and capital for years to come.

South Africa offers Erdogan an inflation lesson

23 Mar 2021

A steep plunge in the lira, of the sort seen this week after Turkey’s president fired his central bank boss, usually drags down the rand. Not this time. The South African currency’s resilience shows the value of a credible and independent central bank left free to control prices.

Turkey picks worst time to fire central banker

22 Mar 2021

President Tayyip Erdogan removed hawkish Governor Naci Agbal, replacing him with a professor who says high interest rates cause inflation. A widening current account deficit, depleted forex reserves and inflation at 16% make a currency crisis both more likely and more painful.

Turkey gives investors early Thanksgiving treat

19 Nov 2020

The new central bank chief hiked a key interest rate to 15% from 10.25%, the biggest tightening in more than two years. He vowed to bear down on inflation and improved transparency by reducing the number of policy rates that matter. It’s a good start at rebuilding market trust.

Turkey’s new economy team will face fresh problems

9 Nov 2020

President Tayyip Erdogan installed a new central bank boss while his son-in-law quit as finance minister. Credible policymakers are more likely to hike rates. Just as well: without President Donald Trump, Ankara’s foreign policy – and the lira – are more vulnerable to sanctions.

Turkey has only one way to avert new crisis

13 Aug 2020

The lira has fallen by almost a fifth against the dollar this year. The central bank’s reserves are depleted and President Tayyip Erdogan dislikes interest rate rises. Accepting a gradual tightening of monetary policy is his one hope of avoiding a rerun of the 2018 crash.

Turkey’s policy sins will be visited on companies

7 May 2020

The lira fell to a record low against the dollar. The central bank set interest rates too low in the past, then depleted FX reserves to limit the exchange-rate damage. Its war chest is too small to prevent further depreciation. Disaster looms for firms with foreign-currency debt.

Turkish whip-round is sloshing state money about

14 Apr 2020

Saddled with dwindling FX reserves, high inflation and a budget deficit, Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan is asking for aid from individuals and firms to protect society’s most vulnerable from the Covid-19 fallout. But so far the biggest contributors are stretched state banks.

Turkish canal is bad way to fix infrastructure gap

31 Mar 2020

President Tayyip Erdogan is building a $12 bln waterway in Istanbul. The stated aim of stopping ships from crashing into the Bosphorus fails to make up for the risk of environmental catastrophe. There’s no promise of new revenues either. The only winners will be land speculators.