Turkey

Hadas: Even Trump can’t make graft great again

11 April 2018

Resistance to corruption is evident in cases against ex-leaders of South Korea, Brazil and South Africa. Old royal privileges make no sense in modern economies. U.S. officials and the corporate elite have strayed, but rising middle classes will keep straightening out the crooked.

Sberbank’s homeward pivot is a no-brainer

30 January 2018

The Russian bank is in talks to offload its majority stake in Denizbank. Sanctions had already taken the shine off Sberbank’s expansion abroad. But selling the Turkish lender at its $3.2 bln book value would bolster capital and help it become even more dominant in Russia.

TPG follows Turkish raki feat with Myanmar whisky

13 October 2017

The buyout firm has sold out of Myanmar’s largest spirits company in a $1 bln deal. As it did in Turkey, TPG again bought small, scaled up and sold to a big corporate buyer. Making deals in places like Yangon is an acquired taste – but can yield potent returns.

Qatar standoff spells end of Gulf cooperation

3 July 2017

Saudi Arabia has granted the sheikhdom two more days to comply with its demands. Failure to reach a deal could escalate the dispute, hitting regional economies and investors in equal measure. But even if both sides back down, plans for greater economic collaboration are on hold.

Turkish lira will stick with FX underdog role

24 January 2017

Rate-setters passed up the chance to give the battered currency even a brief respite. Investors’ doubts about the central bank’s independence show how political concerns are breeding economic ones. Steep market losses can entice bargain hunters, but not when worse may lie ahead.

Turkey-Russia pact can survive Ankara flashpoint

20 December 2016

Moscow’s ambassador in the Turkish capital has been shot dead by a policeman seeking revenge for Aleppo. In 2015, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin were at loggerheads. Now mutual self-interest over Syria and a perceived common enemy mean the shock can be smoothed over.

Turkey will pay high price for political stability

18 July 2016

President Tayyip Erdogan is reasserting control after seeing off a military coup. He offers stability of sorts, which explains why Turkish assets pared knee-jerk losses. But his crackdown also engenders uncertainty, which investors loathe. Luring foreign money will be harder.

Turkey’s failed coup leaves no victors

16 July 2016

President Tayyip Erdogan’s government survived an attempted military coup but has few reasons for triumphalism. Much-needed foreign capital is likely to flee, and all the faster if there are harsh reprisals. Economic damage risks making this key U.S. and EU ally less reliable.

Thomas Cook is shock absorber for tourist turmoil

19 May 2016

Despite increased like-for-like revenue, the UK holiday group’s shares dropped by almost a fifth as it reported half-year results. A missing Egypt-bound airplane underlines how difficult the tourism business has become. 

Dixon: Turkey deal offers a lot – if it sticks

8 March 2016

An offer to reduce disorderly migration would cut the risk of Britain leaving the EU and Greece quitting the euro. It would also shore up German Chancellor Merkel’s position, helping stabilise the EU and the Schengen Area. What it won’t do is stop anti-migrant populism in Europe.

Qatar price for Turkish bank reflects weaknesses

22 December 2015

The Gulf state’s largest lender says it will pay National Bank of Greece 2.75 bln euros for Turkey’s Finansbank. A price equivalent to around one times book value looks cheap. But business conditions have worsened. Qatar National Bank may find it hard to generate economic profit.

Dixon: Turkey’s economy threatened on many fronts

7 December 2015

A row with Russia, a resurgence of violence within its borders and the prospect of the Fed raising rates have coincided with President Erdogan’s increasing politicisation of the economy and bad governance. This could prove a toxic cocktail given the private sector’s high debt.

Dixon: EU-Turkey deal is historic, if it sticks

30 November 2015

The EU has dangled the prospect that Turkey can join the bloc, offered to liberalise visas and promised the government a chunk of cash in return for Ankara agreeing to stem the flow of migrants to Europe. The snag is that not all of the pact looks deliverable.

Turkey has more friends in politics than markets

27 November 2015

Europe’s recent rapprochement with Ankara is born of necessity. Less porous shared borders will help control the flow of migrants into the West. But investors have a choice. Their ardour will hinge on how much reform latitude President Tayyip Erdogan gives his new government.

Dixon: EU needs to up its game on Turkey

19 October 2015

The bloc has benefited for years from a stable country on its southeast border insulating it from mayhem in the Middle East. But Turkey is an increasingly leaky and troubled buffer state. This has economic as well as political repercussions. The EU needs to get its act together.

Turkey enters era of enhanced uncertainty

8 June 2015

The AK Party’s loss of a parliamentary majority in Sunday’s election has a good side. It will restrain President Tayyip Erdogan’s dictatorial dreams. But neither the weakened AK nor the deeply divided opposition looks capable of attacking the country’s serious economic problems.

Brazil has edge on Turkey in recovery strategy

1 April 2015

The two middle-income countries suffer from weak GDP growth, big current account deficits, high inflation and corruption. But they are taking different paths. Turkey’s authoritarianism is popular and destructive. Brazil’s new austerity is unpopular but will help even its critics.

Turkey’s central bank is in a very tough spot

9 March 2015

Rate-setters are under pressure from President Erdogan to ease, despite a big trade deficit, high inflation and a weakening lira. The central bank is trying to square the circle, including by cutting forex deposit rates. It could all get much worse, if Erdogan pushes too hard.

Even a weaker Islamic State will drag on economy

23 December 2014

Cheap oil may now be the biggest worry for Middle Eastern economies, but the struggle against the radical group also has the potential to undermine growth. Even if IS has peaked, its ideology remains a problem, especially for Iraq and Turkey. Iran could end up gaining ground.

BBVA’s timing in Turkey looks odd

20 November 2014

The Spanish bank is raising 2 bln euros to buy an extra 14.9 percent stake in Garanti. BBVA gets a larger share of growing earnings and board control. But it could have achieved the latter by 2016 – at a much lower cost. And Turkey’s attractions come with obvious risks.