Turkey

Turkey’s IMF emancipation deserves cautious cheer

15 May 2013

Ankara is finally free of debt to the IMF. This crowns a decade of successful reform by the Islamist AKP party. It will make Turkey’s investment story even more convincing. But the country’s reliance on foreign funding remains a big vulnerability.

Turkey can profit from Islamic banking

7 May 2013

Existing players are small, but the Islamist government is promoting sharia-compliant entities. The motivation is more pragmatic than religious. By overcoming local secular sensitivities, Turkey can tap more capital from its own heartlands, as well as from the Gulf and Asia.

Turkish IPO market faces key test in Pegasus sale

22 Apr 2013

The low-cost carrier’s $360 mln IPO is the largest deal in Turkey’s lumpy new-issues market since 2010. Secondary offerings dominate the equity pipeline but success could encourage other families to IPO big businesses - and help Istanbul’s ambition to be a major financial centre.

Too soon to cheer Turkey’s soft landing

26 Sep 2012

Turkey’s vulnerability to an external shock hasn’t shrunk with the current account deficit. Short-term borrowing is rising and exports are flattered by gold sales. Amid slowing economic growth and volatile domestic and regional politics, there’s plenty of reason for caution.

Turkey’s sukuk debut looks well timed

12 Sep 2012

The government’s first Islamic bond will capitalise on Turkey’s growing economic and political ties with the Middle East. A new legal framework, and the massive shortfall of Sharia-compliant assets, suggests the sukuk will get a warm welcome, despite local secular sensitivities.

Syria exposes neighbours’ economic vulnerability

24 Jul 2012

While Turkey and Iraq will watch events over the border nervously, they have little direct economic exposure to Syria. But as pressure grows on the Assad regime, Jordan and Lebanon are feeling a financial impact that is weighing on growth.

Turkish banks still shine despite musical chairs

25 Oct 2011

Dexia has joined the foreign lenders looking to exit the country after just a few years. But Turkey’s banks are well capitalised in an underpenetrated market, and valuations are near historic lows. Even with an economic slowdown looming, they offer a potential bargain for buyers.

Economic stress adds to Turkey’s quake woes

24 Oct 2011

The human cost of the Ercis disaster comes as Turkey fights to keep its once-booming economy on track. Ankara is playing a high-risk game by intervening in markets. It needs higher interest rates to shore up the lira, but the cost may be recession.

SAB’s $1.9 bln Turkish tie-up has double benefit

19 Oct 2011

The UK-listed brewer is swapping its Russian unit for a 24 percent stake in Turkey’s Efes. Though Russia is challenging for brewers, the combined business will have a broader base. And SAB is now in pole position if the families behind Turkey’s dominant beer-maker ever sell up.

Currency crossfire to hit emerging economies hard

29 Sep 2011

Money is flowing out of emerging economies. Countries that had complained about currency appreciation have had to prop up forex rates. Turkey and South Korea are vulnerable to hot money retreat. Poland and Hungary are caught in currency traps.

IMF financial crisis indicator bodes ill for China

21 Sep 2011

The fund has found a measure of credit growth that could predict crunches. It makes the Middle Kingdom look precarious and heralds problems for Turkey and Vietnam. The IMF’s crisis-spotting record is lousy. But overheating nations shouldn’t dismiss what seems a sensible metric.