Edward Hadas: Social media sets us free, or not 12 Jun 2013 Social media organised a would-be Turkish revolution. The Internet, like printing before it, spreads disruptive ideas. The prime minister is furious. But the U.S. government, which uses the Web to spy, understands that clever states exploit, rather than dismiss, new technology.
Turkish example weighs on emerging markets 11 Jun 2013 A successful cultural-economic model has been tarnished. Prime Minister Erdogan’s autocratic style, seen in a harsh response to peaceful protest, troubles the foreigners whose money is needed to keep Turkey afloat. The episode also suggests the model will be harder to replicate.
Inflation arises from popping EM asset bubbles 5 Jun 2013 Mere talk about Fed tapering has been enough to reverse the previous flood of foreign money into emerging market bonds and stocks. As these bubbly assets deflate, currencies are falling in Turkey, Brazil and Mexico. That will push up inflation and cut into growth.
Turkey can’t afford to spurn democracy 3 Jun 2013 Prime Minister Erdogan’s harsh response to popular demonstrations reminds investors that Turkey’s growth story has some dark spots. The country’s success depends on foreign capital and a vibrant middle class. A retreat into authoritarianism shouldn’t even be an option.
Erdogan keeps keys to Turkey’s long-term future 21 May 2013 The economy is shining after a decade of stability and reform under Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamist-rooted AK Party. A peace deal with Kurdish militants could be the key to ensuring that he stays in power beyond his current term, while Turkey continues to rise.
Turkish Airlines can ride out turbulence 16 May 2013 Big aircraft orders and celebrity adverts signal the airline’s desire to be in the global top 10. Now Turkish must contend with strikes and its CEO taking leave. Still, the firm’s strategy is credible. Good execution and removal of an overhang would close the shares’ discount to peers.
Turkey’s IMF emancipation deserves cautious cheer 15 May 2013 Ankara is finally free of debt to the IMF. This crowns a decade of successful reform by the Islamist AKP party. It will make Turkey’s investment story even more convincing. But the country’s reliance on foreign funding remains a big vulnerability.
Turkey can profit from Islamic banking 7 May 2013 Existing players are small, but the Islamist government is promoting sharia-compliant entities. The motivation is more pragmatic than religious. By overcoming local secular sensitivities, Turkey can tap more capital from its own heartlands, as well as from the Gulf and Asia.
Turkish IPO market faces key test in Pegasus sale 22 Apr 2013 The low-cost carrier’s $360 mln IPO is the largest deal in Turkey’s lumpy new-issues market since 2010. Secondary offerings dominate the equity pipeline but success could encourage other families to IPO big businesses - and help Istanbul’s ambition to be a major financial centre.
Too soon to cheer Turkey’s soft landing 26 Sep 2012 Turkey’s vulnerability to an external shock hasn’t shrunk with the current account deficit. Short-term borrowing is rising and exports are flattered by gold sales. Amid slowing economic growth and volatile domestic and regional politics, there’s plenty of reason for caution.
Turkey’s sukuk debut looks well timed 12 Sep 2012 The government’s first Islamic bond will capitalise on Turkey’s growing economic and political ties with the Middle East. A new legal framework, and the massive shortfall of Sharia-compliant assets, suggests the sukuk will get a warm welcome, despite local secular sensitivities.
Syria exposes neighbours’ economic vulnerability 24 Jul 2012 While Turkey and Iraq will watch events over the border nervously, they have little direct economic exposure to Syria. But as pressure grows on the Assad regime, Jordan and Lebanon are feeling a financial impact that is weighing on growth.
Turkish banks still shine despite musical chairs 25 Oct 2011 Dexia has joined the foreign lenders looking to exit the country after just a few years. But Turkey’s banks are well capitalised in an underpenetrated market, and valuations are near historic lows. Even with an economic slowdown looming, they offer a potential bargain for buyers.
Economic stress adds to Turkey’s quake woes 24 Oct 2011 The human cost of the Ercis disaster comes as Turkey fights to keep its once-booming economy on track. Ankara is playing a high-risk game by intervening in markets. It needs higher interest rates to shore up the lira, but the cost may be recession.
SAB’s $1.9 bln Turkish tie-up has double benefit 19 Oct 2011 The UK-listed brewer is swapping its Russian unit for a 24 percent stake in Turkey’s Efes. Though Russia is challenging for brewers, the combined business will have a broader base. And SAB is now in pole position if the families behind Turkey’s dominant beer-maker ever sell up.
Currency crossfire to hit emerging economies hard 29 Sep 2011 Money is flowing out of emerging economies. Countries that had complained about currency appreciation have had to prop up forex rates. Turkey and South Korea are vulnerable to hot money retreat. Poland and Hungary are caught in currency traps.
IMF financial crisis indicator bodes ill for China 21 Sep 2011 The fund has found a measure of credit growth that could predict crunches. It makes the Middle Kingdom look precarious and heralds problems for Turkey and Vietnam. The IMF’s crisis-spotting record is lousy. But overheating nations shouldn’t dismiss what seems a sensible metric.